A Penguin's Perspective

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Daily Market Analysis – 20260224

DMA of 2026 FEBRUARY 24 TUESDAY AMC.

Stocks had a solid session today, with the major averages closing higher across the board amid increasingly broad participation throughout the session. The S&P 500 (+0.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) reclaimed the bulk of yesterday’s weakness, with the S&P 500 trading above its 50-day moving average (6,895.59), but closing just under the technical level. Meanwhile, the DJIA (+0.8%) posted a similar gain, though it only amounted to just under half of yesterday’s losses. 

Software stocks saw some buying interest after a particularly weak session yesterday, with the iShares GS Software ETF (+1.9%) clawing back some of its nearly 5.0% decline. While there was certainly an element of bargain hunting in today’s trade, Anthropic’s announcement of new partnerships in its Claude Cowork space helped quell some of the broader fears of AI disruption. FactSet (FDS 201.49, +11.23, +5.90%) was among the names listed and finished as one of the top-performing names in the financials sector (+0.5%), which had previously slid 3.3% on Monday.

Financial services companies and asset managers were among the outperformers after particular weakness yesterday, while PayPal (PYPL 47.01, +2.96, +6.73%) surged after Bloomberg reported that Stripe Inc. is interested in acquiring the company. 

Unsurprisingly, the information technology sector (+1.2%) was among today’s top performers amid the bounce in software stocks. The sector was also supported by solid gains across chipmakers, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index 1.5% higher. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 213.84, +17.24, +8.77%) was a standout after announcing a landmark multi-year agreement to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of custom MI450/Helios AI systems with Meta Platforms (META 639.30, +2.05, +0.32%). 

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector (+1.6%) also rebounded nicely from yesterday’s lows, notching the widest gain today. Travel names such as Expedia Group (EXPE 198.12, +9.61, +5.10%) and Booking Holdings (BKNG 4068.56, +197.73, +5.11%) were among the top performers, while stocks that were particularly affected by President Trump’s implementation of a 10% Section 122 tariff rate also finished higher, including Williams-Sonoma (WSM 209.00, +7.12, +3.53%) and NIKE (NKE 64.09, +1.00, +1.59%). 

Home Depot (HD 384.48, +7.49, +1.99%) notched a solid gain after posting an EPS beat following three consecutive misses.

The sector also benefitted from strong mega-cap leadership from Tesla (TSLA 409.38, +9.55, +2.39%) and Amazon (AMZN 208.56, +3.29, +1.60%) amid a strong day for the market’s weightiest names that saw the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finish 1.1% higher. 

The industrials sector (+1.2%) notched a solid finish as well, while broadening strength throughout the session saw the defensive utilities (+1.1%) and consumer staples (+0.7%) sectors finish higher despite a weaker start. 

Meanwhile, the health care sector (-0.5%) finished with the widest loss, with particular weakness across managed care names such as Molina Healthcare (MOH 148.31, -7.90, -5.06%) and Humana (HUM 174.64, -6.52, -3.60%).

Only the energy sector (-0.1%) would also finish slightly lower as crude oil futures settled today’s session $0.64 lower (-1.0%) at $65.66 per barrel.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+1.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) outperformed as the market saw a considerable improvement in risk sentiment today. 

All told, today’s session marked a solid start in reversing Monday’s weakness. Though the rebound certainly was technical in some aspects, it was encouraging to see investors buy the dip across software and tech names, while a smattering of headlines around productivity software integration to the Claude Cowork model also offered some reprieve. 

Investors will have another sizable batch of earnigns reports to assess after the close while awaiting President Trump’s State of the Union address this evening, which is expected to extensively feature the economy and affordability.

U.S. Treasuries had a subdued showing on Tuesday, keeping yields near their closing levels from Monday. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.46%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.03%. 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +6.9% YTD
  • DJIA: +2.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: +0.7% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -1.6% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 49174 (+0.76%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 22863 (+1.04%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6890 (+0.77%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,218 mln vs avg. of 1,312 mln; NASDAQ 8,002 mln vs avg. of 8,660 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (822 mln/381 mln) and Nasdaq (5941 mln/2018 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 1778/950; NASDAQ 3275/1513)
  • new 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows (NYSE 171/79, NASDAQ 221/220).

After-Hours Action

US stock futures were broadly steady on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to Nvidia’s earnings report, which is expected to provide fresh signals on the durability of artificial intelligence demand. In regular trading on Tuesday, the Dow advanced 0.76%, the S&P 500 added 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.04%, with Wall Street rebounding from Monday’s selloff as concerns eased that AI would rapidly disrupt multiple industries. AMD was the session’s standout, surging 8.8% after Meta unveiled a multiyear agreement to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD’s graphics processing units across its AI-focused data centers. Software names also participated in the rally, with Salesforce and IBM rising 4.1% and 2.7%, respectively, as analysts pushed back against skepticism over the durability of legacy service models. Meanwhile, DocuSign gained 2.6% after news that Anthropic’s Claude Cowork now integrates with its platform, reinforcing the view that AI is enhancing established enterprise tools.

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: RCKY +25.7% (also authorizes new $7.5 mln share repurchase program), UIS +23%, AXON +16.4%, ECG +14%, ABCL +13%, FLYW +9.9%, CAVA +9.4%, REZI +7.8%, TMDX +7.8%, AROC +7.7%, GIC +6.7%, TREX +6.6% (also CEO to retire, names new CEO; also authorizes new $150 mln share repurchase program), SLDE +5.8%, UVE +5.5%, CCC +5.1%, EXLS +4.4% (also authorizes new $500 mln share repurchase program), MTDR +4.2%, BBIO +3.9%, IGIC +3.7%, SUPN +3.2%, JAZZ +3.1%, MATX +3%, ZETA +3%, RVLV +2.7%, RRC +2.2%, MMSI +0.9%, NVTS +0.8% (also CFO to step down), CLNE +0.4%, EOG +0.2%, SUI +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: KOS +5.8% (announces sale of Equatorial Guinea production assets to Panoro Energy for up to $219.5 mln), AII +4.5% (declares special cash dividend of $1.02/sh), CVI +3.6% (Icahn Enterprises increases stake with $16.445 mln purchase of shares), NVCR +2.6% (received letter from CMS rescinding the revocation of billing privileges), CPRI +1.9% (names Tyler Reddien as CFO and COO), NFLX +1.3% (PSKY increases bid for WBD to $31/sh in cash), PSKY +1.2% (PSKY increases bid for WBD to $31/sh in cash), BBNX +0.8% (files mixed securities shelf offering), JNJ +0.2% (seeks FDA approval of IMAAVY), HRL +0.2% (names new CTO), PVLA +0.1% (commences $150 mln stock offering), DHR +0.1% (increases dividend)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ATEC -12.1%, FSLR -11.5% (also patent licensing agreement with Oxford Photovoltaics), PARR -9.8%, WDAY -9%, INGN -8.7% (also authorizes new $30 mln share repurchase program), CWH -7.9%, VRRM -7%, GDDY -6.6%, HPQ -6.6%, MELI -5.9%, LCID -5.7% (also files a prospectus supplement to register for resale up to 69.1 mln shares), TALO -5%, MQ -4.8%, ALC -4.3%, DAWN -3.7%, TEM -3.7%, DAWN -3.7%, EVH -3.5%, HURN -3.5%, CDNA -3.4% (also names Keith Kennedy as COO/CFO), CSGP -3.4% (also plans to repurchase $700 mln of its shares in 2026), MOS -2.9%, EXPI -2.3%, SAM -1.5%, LTC -1.1%, SILA -1.1%, ATRO -1%, CORT -0.9%, CYTK -0.9%, SEI -0.9%, GPOR -0.8%, GPOR -0.8%, O -0.5%, SPXC -0.3%, NMFC -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TYGO -9.9% ($15 mln registered direct offering of its common stock; also reports earnings), ZURA -6.6% (stock offering), VIR -3.5% ($200 mln stock offering), SER -2.8% (doses first patient in Phase 1b trial for SER-252), MYGN -1.3% (files for $200 mln mixed shelf offering), WBD -0.8% (PSKY increases bid for WBD to $31/sh in cash), AAPL -0.2% (will soon introduce MacBooks with touch screens, according to Bloomberg)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries had a subdued showing on Tuesday, keeping yields near their closing levels from Monday with some slight relative weakness up front and relative strength in the 30-yr bond. Treasuries followed Monday’s charge with a modestly lower start in shorter tenors after a night that was subdued for sovereign debt in general. Treasuries attempted a quick recovery of their starting losses, but the flat line offered resistance for most tenors while the long bond outperformed, spending the entire session just below its high from Monday. A new global tariff went into effect today, but at a rate of 10% instead of 15%, and today’s economic data showed an improvement in Consumer Confidence for February (91.2; Briefing.com consensus 86.0; prior 89.0). The U.S. Treasury sold $69 bln in 2-yr notes, though the demand was a little soft. Crude oil slipped back below $66/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 97.85.

Yields

  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.46%
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.46%
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.60%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.03%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.69%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index remained around 97.8 on Wednesday after advancing in the previous session, supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period. Fed official Susan Collins noted that holding rates steady is likely appropriate given an improving labor market alongside persistent inflation risks, while Thomas Barkin added that monetary policy is well-positioned to manage risks around the economic outlook. Despite this, markets still price in roughly three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed this year. Meanwhile, the US began implementing a temporary 10% global tariff on Tuesday, which the White House is reportedly seeking to raise to 15%, following the Supreme Court’s decision last week to strike down Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Geopolitical risks also weighed, with investors focused on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.1776
  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.3497
  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 6.8794
  • USD/JPY: +0.8% to 155.80

Offshore Yuan Strongest Since 2023
The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.86 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting its strongest level since April 2023, as a weakening greenback supported the currency. The US dollar declined amid uncertainty over US tariffs and fiscal policies, compounded by investor caution amid US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. The yuan gained further support as Indonesia began marketing offshore yuan-denominated bonds, testing global investor appetite amid concerns over the nation’s fiscal health. This is Indonesia’s second offshore yuan issuance, following its October debut, reflecting its strategy to take advantage of China’s low borrowing costs. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China recently held its key rates unchanged for the ninth consecutive month, with the one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.

South Korean Won Hits 4-Week High
The South Korean won strengthened to around 1,437 per dollar, recovering from a brief dip in the previous session to a four-week high as government initiatives to attract foreign investment bolstered market sentiment. The currency’s rise coincided with a historic surge in the local stock market, which recently reached a market capitalization of $3.76 trillion. Lee Chan-jin, governor of the Financial Supervisory Service, told executives from 10 international institutions that authorities are implementing measures, including steps toward MSCI index inclusion, to further strengthen the domestic capital market. Investors are now turning their attention to the Bank of Korea’s policy meeting on February 26, 2026. Market consensus anticipates that the central bank will hold the base rate steady at 2.50%, as policymakers weigh current economic momentum against inflation and growth trends.

Yen Weakens on Takaichi Report
The Japanese yen traded near 156 per dollar on Wednesday, following a sharp decline in the previous session after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concern over further rate hikes in a meeting last week with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BOJ chief stated after their meeting last week that Takaichi made no specific requests during their discussion of the economy. Takaichi is known for her pro-stimulus stance, supporting both expansionary fiscal policies and looser monetary settings. This clouds the outlook for BOJ rate hikes amid speculation that the central bank could resume normalizing monetary policy later this year. Separately, earlier reports indicated that US authorities had proactively conducted rate checks last month to support the yen and were ready to coordinate intervention at Japan’s request. The effort, led by Scott Bessent, reflected concerns that political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s general election could destabilize financial markets.

Sterling Holds Near $1.35 as Trump’s 10% Global Tariff Takes Effect
Sterling remained little changed at $1.35, staying close to last week’s one-month lows, as US President Donald Trump’s new 10% global tariffs came into effect. Although Trump had threatened to raise the rate to 15% over the weekend, the lower-than-expected levy offers only limited relief for UK businesses. The tariffs follow a setback for Trump on Friday, when the US Supreme Court struck down his sweeping “liberation day” import duties imposed last year. Under the new measures, the US Customs agency will impose “an additional 10% ad valorem duty on imported articles of every country” for 150 days from Tuesday, unless specifically exempt. Meanwhile, William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, noted that “while a new 10% tariff rate, instead of the threatened 15%, provides some relief, it highlights how difficult it is for businesses to plan ahead.”

Franc Buoyed by Safe-Haven Demand
The Swiss franc hovered around 0.77 per USD, approaching record levels, driven by safe-haven flows amid renewed trade uncertainties, geopolitical risks and persistent concerns over AI. President Trump pushed ahead with fresh tariffs on the US’s trading partners despite a supreme court blocked part of planned duties. Switzerland’s low debt, stable economy, and predictable policies further attract investors. Meanwhile, reduced prospects for near-term rate cuts continued to support the currency. Swiss inflation stayed at 0.1% in January, holding at the lower end of the SNB’s 0–2% target range and in line with the bank’s Q1 outlook. The central bank (SNB) is expected to keep the current stance in the foreseeable future, as inflation is seen rising gradually and the bar to reintroduce negative rates remains high. SNB President Martin Schlegel recently stated that the central banks is prepared to accept short periods of negative inflation while keeping focus on medium-term targets.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude oil futures rose to around $71.4 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures rose to around $66.2 per barrel on Wednesday after two consecutive sessions of decline, as investors weighed supply risks ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said on Tuesday that his country will do “whatever it takes” to reach a deal with the US over its nuclear program. The remarks came after President Trump on Monday expressed a preference for diplomacy but warned of serious consequences if no agreement is reached. Attention is on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes, where any escalation in hostilities could significantly disrupt supply. Traders are also assessing the potential impact on demand from new US trade measures, as Trump’s 10% global tariff came into effect on Tuesday, with the administration working to raise it to 15%.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at $5.24

Commodities

  • Crude Oil -0.64 @ 65.66
  • Nat Gas -0.07 @ 2.92
  • Gold -49.60 @ 5176.60
  • Silver +0.99 @ 87.51
  • Copper +0.15 @ 5.93

Gold Moves Higher
Gold rose to around $5,180 per ounce on Wednesday, recouping part of the previous session’s losses, supported by trade and geopolitical uncertainty. US President Trump’s new 10% global tariff came into effect on Tuesday, with his administration seeking to hike it to 15% in an effort to rebuild its tariff agenda after the Supreme Court invalidated much of his sweeping levies. On Monday, Trump also warned that higher tariffs could be imposed on countries that “play games” with recent trade agreements. Meanwhile, investors are watching the continuation of US-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday, with Iran vowing on Tuesday to do “whatever it takes” to secure a deal with Washington. However, gains in bullion were limited by fading expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Two Fed officials said on Tuesday that they see no immediate need to adjust monetary policy, citing improving labor market conditions and persistent inflation.

Silver Rises on Haven Demand
Silver climbed above $88 per ounce on Wednesday, recovering losses from the previous session as tariff, geopolitical, and broader economic uncertainties boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The US began collecting a temporary 10% global tariff on Tuesday, which the White House is reportedly seeking to raise to 15%, following the Supreme Court’s decision last week to strike down President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs. Geopolitical concerns also supported prices, with investors focused on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday. Gains in precious metals, however, may be capped amid diminishing expectations for near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Fed official Susan Collins noted that holding interest rates steady for some time is likely appropriate, citing improving labor market conditions alongside persistent inflation risks.

Copper Gains as Chinese Traders Return
Copper futures jumped nearly 2% toward $5.9 per pound on Tuesday, reversing losses from the previous session as traders in mainland China returned from the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Optimism over potentially lower US tariffs supported the rally after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Even with Trump threatening to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% in response to the ruling, China is still expected to face lower average levies on its metal-intensive exports. However, higher physical prices have raised concerns that top consumer China could curb purchases, pushing exchange-tracked inventories to their highest levels since 2024. Stockpiles in both London and New York have also been on the rise.

Arabica Coffee Futures Rise Slightly
Arabica coffee futures rose to cross $2.80 per pound, recovering slightly from recent 15-month lows of $2.78, driven primarily by tight short-term supplies and speculative activity. Dealers also noted that a strengthening Brazilian real can make farmers reluctant to sell at current prices, limiting supply. Despite this, the market remains subdued amid forecasts of a record 2026 harvest in top producer Brazil, where heavy rains since mid-January have improved crop prospects. For the upcoming 2026/27 season, the National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts Brazil’s coffee harvest at 66.2 million 60-kg bags, including 44.1 million bags of Arabica, while Eisa brokerage projects the crop could reach 75.8 million bags.

US Egg Prices Drop Toward Multi-Year Lows
US egg prices slipped back toward $0.5 per dozen after rebounding from multi-year lows, as a severe oversupply from aggressive flock restocking and a surge in imports collided with a contraction in consumer demand. Following avian flu outbreaks in 2024 and 2025 that decimated 70 million hens, producers overcompensated by expanding layer inventories to 309 million by January. This glut was magnified by the administration’s decision to increase egg imports to 122.5 million dozen in 2025, four times the previous year’s volume, to combat grocery inflation. Demand-side pressure persists as consumers who pivoted to alternatives during the $6 price peak last March have yet to fully resume historical buying patterns. While a new February outbreak in Pennsylvania affecting 7 million birds threatens a supply reversal, the market remains anchored by this massive inventory overhang.

Baltic Dry Index Up for 3rd Day
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, advanced for a third session on Tuesday, rising by 0.8% to its highest since January 30 at 2,129 points. The supramax index increased 3.2% to 1,217 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, went up 0.7% to 1,866 points. On the other hand, the capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, edged down by 0.1% to 3,207 points, after two consecutive sessions of increases.

Palm Oil Falls for 3rd Session
Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,080 per tonne on Tuesday, extending losses for a third straight session amid persistent concerns over weaker exports. Cargo surveyors estimated shipments for February 1–20 fell between 8.9% and 12.6% from the previous month, signaling softer demand despite Ramadan and the upcoming Eid al-Fitr celebration. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council also flagged risks from ample global soybean supplies and rising Chinese soybean oil exports, which could intensify competition in the edible oils market. Still, downside pressure was limited by a weaker ringgit and firmer edible oil prices on the Chicago market. Trading on China’s Dalian exchange also resumed after the Spring Festival break, lending some support. Looking ahead, demand from the top buyer, India, is projected to rebound in 2026 on better price competitiveness, potentially reaching 800,000 tons. The council expects palm oil prices to consolidate in the MYR 4,000–4,300 per tonne range in March.

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • December FHFA Housing Price Index 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.6%
  • December S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%); Prior 1.4%
  • February Consumer Confidence 91.2 (Briefing.com consensus 86.0); Prior was revised to 89.0 from 84.5
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the month-over-month improvement was driven by increased expectations, with all three components of the index—income, business, and labor market conditions—advancing from January.
  • December Wholesale Inventories 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.2%
  • President Trump is considering new tariffs on six industries under Section 232 trade authority, according to WSJ
  • A 10% global tariff takes effect as the White House prepares a formal order to raise it to 15%, according to Bloomberg
  • EU lawmakers warn that the new tariff structure violates the trade deal with U.S., according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump says the State of the Union address tonight will be a “long speech”, according to NY Times
  • President Trump is expected to focus on the economy during the State of the Union address tonight, according to WSJ
  • President Trump will announce during the State of the Union that technology companies will be required to pay for extra utility costs, according to WSJ
  • President Trump denies reports that General Daniel Caine is against a strike on Iran
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief congressional leadership from both parties on Iran this afternoon; President Trump will give his State of the Union Address tonight at 21:00 ET
  • “The Trump administration is exploring options to build on Trump Accounts and its 401(k) EO by creating a new retirement savings plan for adults who don’t have an employer-sponsored one without going through Congress” — Semafor
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter) says the Fed will not be able to offset structural unemployment, according to Reuters
  • Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the war with Ukraine is at the “beginning of the end”, according to FT
  • China banned export of critical minerals to several Japanese companies, according to WSJ
  • The aerospace industry could benefit from the new tariff structure, according to Reuters
  • Following earlier actions to remove reputation risk from its supervision of banks, Federal Reserve Board requests comment on proposal to codify that removal
  • Moody’s releases research report on hyperscalers

US Crude Oil Inventories Surge
US crude oil inventories surged by 11.4 million barrels in the week ended February 20th, 2026, widely offsetting a 0.61 million-barrel drop in the prior week and more than six time the expected 1.85 million barrel build

Dallas Fed Business Activity Returns to Contraction
The general business activity index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas fell to -3.2 in February of 2026 from 2.7 in the earlier month, reflecting a slight worsening in broader business conditions. The index measuring revenues ticked down to 4.1, losing traction from the jump seen in the first month of the year. Consistently, employment levels suggested little change (0.4 vs 0.9 in January 2026). On the price front, input costs extended their sharp increases and rose at about the same pace as the previous month (22.4 vs 21.1), driving companies to similarly maintain growth for selling charges (8.3 vs 7.9). Looking ahead, companies continued to improve their outlook on future business conditions (15.0 vs 14.7).

5th District Manufacturing Falls Further
The Federal Reserve’s Fifth District manufacturing index fell to -10 in February of 2025 from -6 in the previous month, the lowest in three months and missing expectations that it would improve to -4. The result reflected 12 months of negative readings, aligned with pessimistic signals from other regions of the US as tariffs magnified higher producer inflation to dent sentiment among goods producers. Shipments fall further (.13 vs .5 in January) as new orders dropped (-9 vs -6), even though companies continued to run through their order backlogs (-15 vs -13). In turn, prices paid remained elevated but at a softer pace than in the previous month (6.25 vs 7.06).

US 5th District Service Sector Contracts For 4th Month
The Fifth District Service Sector Survey indicated a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in activity in February 2026, the steepest in the current stretch, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index decreased to -8 from -3 and the demand index fell to -3 from 2. Expectations for future revenues (35 vs 34) and demand (28 vs 32) remained firmly in positive territory. The local business conditions index edged down to -10 from -6 in January, while the future local business conditions index rose to 16. The current employment index decreased to 0 in February from 5 in January, and the forward-looking employment index decreased to 15 from 20. The wages index inched down to 17 from 20 and firms continued to expect to increase wages over the next six months. The average growth in prices paid rose notably, while prices received edged up slightly. Firms expect price pressures on inputs to ease over the next 12 months, with prices received seen holding steady.

US House Prices Rise Less than Expected: FHFA
US single-family home prices backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased 0.1% in December 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in November and below market expectations of 0.3%. For the fourth quarter, prices rose 0.8% from the previous quarter. Year-over-year, home values were up 1.8% between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. House prices rose in 41 states, with North Dakota showing the strongest appreciation at 6.4%. House prices were down in nine states and the District of Columbia. Florida experienced the most significant price decline at 2.7%.

US Home Price Growth Stays Subdued in December
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.4% year over year in December 2025, matching November’s pace and market expectations. However, annual price growth remains close to its weakest level in more than two years, highlighting continued cooling in the US housing market. Home price gains also trailed consumer inflation, which stood at 2.7% in December. As a result, real home values effectively declined over the past year, with nominal price growth lagging inflation by about 1.3 percentage points. Chicago led major markets for a third straight month with a 5.3% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.1% and Cleveland at 4.0%. In contrast, Tampa posted the steepest decline, down 2.9% and marking its 14th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, particularly in the Sun Belt, also recorded notable declines, led by Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.5%).

US Private Job Growth Accelerates Again
US private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, up from a revised 11,500 in the previous period, according to ADP Research Institute. This marks the fourth consecutive week of accelerating job growth and represents the fastest pace of hiring since late November, indicating a renewed boost in employment momentum.

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • ACV Auctions (ACVA) misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • AdaptHealth (AHCO) misses by $1.11, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs mostly above consensus
  • Addus HomeCare (ADUS) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line
  • Albany Intl (AIN) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below estimate, revs above estimate
  • Allison Transmission (ALSN) misses by $0.37, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Amer Sports (AS) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus
  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) beats by $0.85, reports revs in-line
  • Armstrong World Industries (AWI) misses by $0.08, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line
  • Arvinas (ARVN) misses by $0.54, misses on revs
  • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) beats by $0.05, beats on revs
  • Avanos Medical (AVNS) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) beats by $CAD0.10, revs slightly below consensus
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) beats by $3.34, beats on revs; Enters into a strategic financing agreement with Sixth Street
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beats by $0.28, beats on revs; issues FY26 guidance
  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Boise Cascade (BCC) beats by $0.10, beats on revs
  • Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • BWX Technologies (BWXT) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Cannae Holdings (CNNE) reports Q4 (Dec) results, revs in-line
  • CECO Environ. (CECO) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; raises FY26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance
  • Chewy (CHWY) reaffirms FY25 guidance
  • ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (IMOS) beats by $0.12, beats on revs
  • Clarivate (CLVT) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • Coca-Cola (KOF) FEMSA reported Q4 results
  • Constellation Energy (CEG) beats by $0.05, beats on revs
  • Diamondback Energy (FANG) misses by $0.26, beats on revs; Issues 2026 production guidance
  • DigitalOcean (DOCN) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Dillard’s (DDS) reports Q4 (Jan) results (two estimates), misses on revs
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • Enviri Corporation (NVRI) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line
  • Establishment Labs (ESTA) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs above consensus; guide FY27 revs in-line
  • EverQuote (EVER) beats by $1.18, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus
  • Expeditors Intl (EXPD) beats by $0.01, beats on revs
  • Fidelity Nat’l Info (FIS) misses by $0.01, beats on revs; provides Q1 and FY26 guidance following Total Issuing Solutions acquisition and sale of its Worldpay stake
  • First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Forward Air (FWRD) misses by $0.65, reports revs in-line
  • Fresenius Medical (FMS) beats on top and bottom lines; proposes dividend raise; provides outlook
  • Galapagos NV (GLPG) reports €321M 2025 profit, advances cell therapy wind-down and focus on transformative growth
  • Gerdau S.A. (GGB) reported Q4 results; approved a new share buyback program
  • Helix Energy (HLX) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Henry Schein (HSIC) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Home Depot (HD) beats by $0.19, reports revs in-line; guides FY27 EPS in-line, revs in-line; raises dividend by 1.3%
  • Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) beats by $0.19, beats on revs
  • Innovex International (INVX) misses by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus
  • Interface (TILE) beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs in-line; raises dividend
  • JBT Marel Corporation (JBTM) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) beats by $0.01, beats on revs
  • Keysight (KEYS) beats by $0.17, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS, revs above consensus
  • Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA) misses by $0.16, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Kratos Defense and Security (KTOS) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Leonardo DRS (DRS) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • Life Time (LTH) beats by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line; Board authorizes share repurchase program up to $500 mln
  • Martin Marietta (MLM) updates FY26 guidance following completion of asset exchange; guides FY26 revenue above consensus
  • MediaAlpha (MAX) beats by $0.26, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; increases share repurchase authorization to $100 mln
  • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • NRG Energy (NRG) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • ONEOK (OKE) beats by $0.04; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Option Care Health (OPCH) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Ovintiv (OVV) reports Q4 (Dec) results; Announces new shareholder return framework, increasing 2026 shareholder returns to at least 75% of full year Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow
  • Paymentus (PAY) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Planet Fitness (PLNT) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Playboy, Inc. (PLBY) reports preliminary fourth quarter 2025 financial results; will report full fourth quarter earnings in March
  • Portillo’s (PTLO) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; comps -3.3%; provides FY26 outlook
  • Primoris Services (PRIM) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • ProAssurance (PRA) beats by $0.57, beats on revs
  • Quaker Chemical (KWR) misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line
  • Repligen (RGEN) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Ryman Hospitality (RHP) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides FY26 AFFO above consensus
  • Shoals Technologies (SHLS) misses by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (SKWD) beats by $0.14
  • Sotera Health (SHC) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Tennant (TNC) misses by $1.22, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
  • UFP Industries (UFPI) reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs
  • Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • V2X (VVX) beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Viper Energy Partners (VNOM) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; Increasing base dividend by 15%, increasing share repurchase authorization by $1.0 bln
  • Vir Biotechnology (VIR) beats by $0.18, beats on revs
  • Westlake Corporation (WLK) beats by $1.16, misses on revs
  • Woodside Energy Group (WDS) posts record output; FY25 NPAT falls 24% on lower prices
  • Xenia Hotels (XHR) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 FFO above consensus
  • Xometry (XMTR) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Ziff Davis (ZD) misses by $0.14, misses on revs

2026 FEB 25

Pre-Market: ACHC ALKS APG AROC ASPN AVA BMO BLMN CTRI CRCL YOU DIN DOLE DRVN FSS HAYW HUT HOV HNI IMCR IONS LFST LINE LIVN LOW MDLN MGPI NMRK ODD OC PLAB PNW RXRX SWX STWD SHOO TBLA TJX TPH UTHR XPEL

After-Hours: ACAD ADMA APA ADTN A ALKT RCUS ARRY BBSI BJRI AI WHD CWT CBZ CHE CPK CHYM CHRD CHDN DBRG DORM ECPG ENVX EPR WTRG EE FSK FTAI GDRX GRBK HEI IBTA IMAX NGVT IONQ JOBY KNTK KGS LMAT MGNI VAC MIAX MIRM MEG MYRG NSA NRDS NOG NTNX NVDA ORA OUT PSKY PEB PR PSTG RVMD ROOT RXST CRM SRPT SDGR SDRL SEZL SBGI SKYT SM SMA SNOW SARO SNPS TDOC TTD TKO TCOM USPH UHS URBN VECO VCYT VICI VSEC ZM

THE WEEK AHEAD

WEEK 09: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23 to FEBRUARY 27

According to the PTSD*, Week 09 has FIVE trading days and is the fourth trading week in February 2026. The next Market Holiday is APR03. Seasonally, PTSD signals a slightly bullish week. February is the weakest of the year’s 6 bullish months.
We also need to keep in mind that, with the current POTUS, seasonals can go out of whack very easily.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices for 2026 FEBRUARY 25 of Week 08 over a 21-year average are:

  • Dow Jones (DJIA): Mildly Bullish 57.1%
  • S&P 500 (SPX): Somwhat Bullish 61.9%
  • NASDAQ (COMP): Bullish 76.2%
  • *Russells 2000 (RUT): Mildly Bullish 52.4%

*The RUT is not listed in the STA; several penguins with a slide ruler calculated the 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs  for 2026 FEBRUARY 25of Week 08 over a 15-year average are:

  • DIA – (15yr Avg):  Mildly Bullish 46.7%
  • SPY – (15yr Avg): Mildly Bearish 46.7%
  • QQQ – (15yr Avg): Mildly Bearish 46.7%
  • RUT – (15yr Avg): Somewhat Bullish 60.0%

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 2.8%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -9.01 mln)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

And just yesterday I said that bullish momentum went out the window. Volatility is the game now. I have been asked several times, and my answer to all is the same – I really do not know where the markets are going, yes, the SPY will hit 700 someday, I just do not know when. I do not know when silver will “go back” to $110. I just smile at folks now. Because they do not want me to ask “why did you buy the high at $110?”

On the home front, the Put wing on the SPX is responding well to last night’s price action. I might just give it some time and see what happens.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)