A Penguin's Perspective

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Daily Market Analysis – 20260223

DMA of 2026 FEBRUARY 23 MONDAY AMC.

While stocks weathered some volatility late last week to chart a higher finish, the market faced a sharp retreat today, with the S&P 500 (-1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.1%), and DJIA (-1.7%) finishing firmly lower across the board. The S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average (6,895.83) and moved back into negative territory for the year. 

The Russell 2000 (-1.6%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.8%) closed with even wider losses, underscoring a broad “risk off” tone in today’s trade. 

Morning headlines revolved around tariff uncertainty after President Trump raised the Section 122 global tariff rate to 15% from 10% and warned this morning that he would impose additional tariffs on countries that attempt to revisit recent trade agreements with the U.S. The threat was made just hours after it was reported that the EU is pausing the approval of the trade deal, pending further review. Late this afternoon, Politico reported that it is unlikely that Congress will have the votes to extend the Section 122 tariffs past 150 days, adding to the uncertainty around the situation.

Unsurprisingly, many stocks in the consumer discretionary sector (-2.2%) struggled, especially those that rely on overseas manufacturing and large import volumes, such as Williams-Sonoma (WSM 201.89, -12.97, -6.04%), lululemon athletica (LULU 178.11, -9.19, -4.91%), and NIKE (NKE 63.08, -2.32, -3.55%). 

Elsewhere in the sector, casino and travel-related names such as Expedia Group (EXPE 188.51, -14.97, -7.36%) and MGM Resorts (MGM 34.26, -2.54, -6.89%) charted even wider losses. 

Tesla (TSLA 399.83, -11.99, -2.91%) and Amazon (AMZN 205.27, -4.84, -2.30%) finished lower amid a tough day for mega-cap tech, which saw the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finish 1.3% lower. 

The market is no stranger to weakness across mega-cap and tech names this year, particularly in the software space. 

Microsoft (MSFT 384.60, -12.63, -3.18%) was a Magnificent Seven laggard, providing weak leadership for an already beleaguered software space. The iShares GS Software ETF finished 4.7% lower as renewed fears of AI disruption saw software names such as Datadog (DDOG 102.62, -13.04, -11.28%) and CrowdStrike (CRWD 350.33, -38.27, -9.85%) plot some of the widest retreats in both the information technology sector (-1.1%) and the broader S&P 500. 

IBM (IBM 223.38, -33.78, -13.13%) faced the widest retreat, which was attributed to news that Claude can automate COBOL modernization. 

Software weakness added to pressure across asset manager names, which were already under pressure following reports last week that Blue Owl Capital (OWL 10.45, -0.36, -3.35%) is restricting redemptions. 

For PE firms with meaningful general partner stakes in portfolio companies tied to traditional enterprise software, uncertainty around future earnings and exit prospects weighed on sentiment, sending stocks such as KKR (KKR 92.19, -8.99, -8.89%) and Ares Management (ARES 114.57, -8.59, -6.97%) firmly lower. 

Meanwhile, fears that AI disruption could slow high-income spending sent ripples across stocks in the payment space lower, such as American Express (AXP 321.24, -24.94, -7.20%) and Capital One (COF 190.00, -18.42, -8.84%).

The industrials sector (-1.4%) also saw a continuation of weakness attributed to AI-disruption fears, including couriers such as C.H. Robinson (CHRW 177.20, -12.86, -6.77%) and data services such as Equifax (EFX 188.43, -9.03, -4.57%).

Defensive names garnered some rotational interest today amid the pronounced weakness in the broader market, sending the consumer staples (+1.5%), healthcare (+1.2%), and utilities (+0.7%) sectors to the top of today’s leaderboard. Walmart (WMT 125.81, +2.82, +2.29%) rebounded from a modest post-earnings slide, while Eli Lilly (LLY 1058.56, +49.04, +4.86%) traded sharply higher after its competitor Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 39.63, -7.79, -16.43%) reported weaker results for its newest weight-loss drug. 

Outside of the stock market, Bitcoin retreated under the $65,000 mark, adding to a sense of volatility across risk assets today. 

All told, it was a tough session for stocks, with pronounced software and mega-cap weakness combining with weak participation in the broader market. Today’s renewed selling pressure across pockets of the market that have seen volatility amid fears of AI disruption could signal that last week’s higher finish was more of a technical rebound and not a change in sentiment. Without material gains from semiconductors or other AI buildout stocks to offset the weakness in disrupted pockets of the market, the major averages will continue to struggle to break out from their current levels.

U.S. Treasuries began the week on a firmly higher note, sending the 5-yr yield toward its low from 2025 (3.530%) amid an uptick in trade tensions and ongoing weakness in asset managers. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.44%, the 5-year note yield settled down seven basis points to 3.58%, and the 10-year note yield settled down six basis points to 4.03%. 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +7.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +5.6% YTD
  • DJIA: +1.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: -0.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -2.6% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed lower at 48804 (-1.66%). 
  • Nasdaq closed lower at 22627 (-1.13%). 
  • S&P 500 closed lower at 6838 (-1.04%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,259 mln vs avg. of 1,309 mln; NASDAQ 8,345 mln vs avg. of 8,639 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (360 mln/894 mln) and Nasdaq (3518 mln/4799 mln). 
  • Decliners led advancers (NYSE 726/2035; NASDAQ 1453/3343)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows on the NYSE but not the Nasdaq (NYSE 172/104, NASDAQ 180/330).

After-Hours Action

US stock futures steadied on Tuesday after the major indexes tumbled in the prior session amid renewed concerns that rapid AI advances could disrupt multiple industries. President Donald Trump’s threat to raise global tariffs to 15% and escalating tensions between the US and Iran further weighed on sentiment. In regular trading on Monday, the Dow fell 1.66%, the S&P 500 slid 1.04% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.13%. Software names and payment companies led the losses on fears of AI displacement, with IBM plunging 13.1% after Anthropic unveiled new coding tools. American Express also sank 7.2% following research flagging the risk of widespread AI-driven job losses. Other notable decliners included CrowdStrike (-9.9%), Oracle (-4.6%), Applovin (-9.1%), Visa (-4.5%) and Mastercard (-5.8%). Investors are now focused on key earnings releases this week from Home Depot, Nvidia, Salesforce and Snowflake, among others.

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: VIR +65.3% (also strategic collaboration with Astelas Pharma (ALPMY); also updated Phase 1 results for PSMA-targeting, PRO-XTEN dual-masked T-cell engager VIR-5500), MYGN +18.3%, SGHC +18.1% (increases dividend) KEYS +15.5%, MAX +14.8% (also increases share repurchase authorization to $100 mln), TARS +10.3%, DHC +8.9%, FWRD +7.8%, ADEA +6.9%, SIBN +6.6%, BWXT +5.4%, AESI +4.5%, IIPR +3.7%, VVX +3%, GLPG +2.2% (also advances cell therapy wind-down), ACVA +2.1%, BBBY +2%, VNOM +1.2% (also increases dividend; also increases share repurchase authorization by $1 bln), RHP +0.4%, SKWD +0.3%, OVV +0.3% (also new shareholder return framework)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BETR +3.7% (strategic partnership with Framework Ventures), EMPD +3.6% (shareholder calls for resignation of CEO and entire Board), IONQ +1.7% (selected to support Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ contract), ERO +1.5% (results of the preliminary economic assessment on the Furnas Copper-Gold Project), PSKY +1.3% (Paramount Skydance raises its offer for Warner Bros (WBD), according to Bloomberg), RCUS +1% (new data for its HIF-2a Inhibitor Casdatifan), FMC +0.9% (receives dual mode of action herbicide classification for rimisoxafen), BNC +0.6% (YZILabs Management responds to CEA Industries’ proposed amendments to asset management agreement), BSX +0.6% (increases share repurchase authorization by $4 bln), CDW +0.5% (mixed shelf offering), DHT +0.4% (entered into a one-year time charter agreement at $105,000 per day for the VLCC DHT Redwood), IVR +0.4% (mixed shelf offering), NFLX +0.4% (Paramount Skydance raises its offer for Warner Bros (WBD), according to Bloomberg), THO +0.2% (to organize its North America RV OEM operations into two operating groups), AAL +0.2% (mixed shelf offering), WBD +0.2% (Paramount Skydance raises its offer for Warner Bros (WBD), according to Bloomberg), CLF +0.2% (appoints new lead Director), UBER +0.1% (to acquire SpotHero, bringing parking reservations onto the Uber app)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: UCTT -12.5%, ZD -8.1%, HIMS -6.7%, PAY -5.3%, PRIM -5.2%, CWEN -4.1%, INVX -3.5%, FANG -2.8%, KTOS -2.7%, BMRN -2.5%, EVER -2.2%, ERIE -2%, APLE -1.6%, OKE -1.5%, ALSN -0.7%, GNW -0.6%, BCC -0.2%,

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TARA -19.2% (updated interim results from its ongoing Phase 2 open-label ADVANCED-2 trial assessing intravesical TARA-002), MGNX -10.3% (FDA places partial clinical hold on Phase 2 LINNET study of lorigerlimab), WHR -8% (stock offering), TNDM -5% (convertible notes offering), AVAV -1.6% (CFO to retire), ED -1.3% (stock offering), RDN -1% (mixed shelf offering), KDP -0.9% (updated financing plan for JDE Peet’s acquisition), XP -0.5% (stock offering by selling shareholders), CRML -0.3% (stock offering by selling shareholders)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries began the week on a firmly higher note, sending the 5-yr yield toward its low from 2025 (3.530%) amid an uptick in trade tensions and ongoing weakness in asset managers. The buying left the 5-yr yield just five basis points above its low from last year as investors sought some protection from persistent volatility in technology and financials. Buying interest picked up significantly after a modestly higher start amid a new wrinkle in transatlantic trade relations. President Trump raised the global tariff rate to 15% from 10% and warned this morning that he would impose additional tariffs on countries that attempt to revisit recent trade agreements with the U.S. The threat was made just hours after it was reported that the EU is pausing the approval of the trade deal, pending further review. Treasuries extended their early gains alongside a weak showing from the S&P 500 financials sector, where asset managers were pressured amid ongoing concerns about exposure to data center and software debt. These worries have become widely reported in recent days, but they have not spilled over to other high yield debt, evidenced by limited signs of stress in broader high yield baskets like iShares iBoxx High Yield ETF (HYG) and SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK). Today’s rally produced highs shortly after yields on 5s and 10s slipped past their lows from last week, settling at levels last seen in late November. Crude oil tagged a fresh high for the year (67.28) before giving back its gain while the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% to 97.70.

Yields

  • 2-yr: -4 bps to 3.44%
  • 3-yr: -5 bps to 3.45%
  • 5-yr: -7 bps to 3.58%
  • 10-yr: -6 bps to 4.03%
  • 30-yr: -3 bps to 4.70%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index climbed above 97.8 on Tuesday after coming under pressure in the previous session, as investors continued to assess US trade uncertainty. In the latest developments, global logistics giant FedEx filed a lawsuit seeking a full refund after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to lift global tariffs from 10% to 15% in response to the ruling and cautioned that countries that “play games” with existing trade agreements could face steeper duties. The shifting policy backdrop has raised fears that current trade deals may unravel, though major trading partners have so far honored their agreements with Washington. On the geopolitical front, markets remain focused on renewed talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Thursday. Elsewhere, Japanese media claimed that US authorities led the rate checks conducted last month to prop up the yen.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: +0.1% to 1.1791
  • GBP/USD: +0.1% to 1.3490
  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 6.8896
  • USD/JPY: -0.2% to 154.62

Yen Slips as Dollar Rebounds
The Japanese yen weakened to around 155 per dollar on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session as the dollar found support despite ongoing US trade uncertainties. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump threatened to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% following a Supreme Court ruling striking down his reciprocal tariffs, and warned of steeper duties on countries that “play games” with existing trade agreements. Tokyo urged Washington to ensure the ruling would not harm Japanese firms and reaffirmed its commitment to the US trade deal. Meanwhile, Japanese media reported that US authorities had proactively conducted rate checks last month to support the yen and were prepared to coordinate intervention at Japan’s request. The reports noted that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the effort, citing concerns that political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s general election could destabilize markets.

Offshore Yuan Little Changed
The offshore yuan was largely unchanged around 6.89 per USD on Tuesday, holding near thirty-four month highs, as the People’s Bank of China kept rates unchanged for the ninth straight month, while onshore traders returned from a week-long holiday. The central bank held its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, indicating that authorities are in no rush to implement broad monetary easing after recent sector-targeted cuts. The decision also reflects a careful balance between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability. Meanwhile, mainland markets reopened after the holidays to a cautious mood, as US President Donald Trump announced plans to raise a temporary 10% tariff on imports to 15%, in response to a Supreme Court ruling. Still, sentiment was aided by renewed dollar weakness, signs of strong forex inflows, following China’s record current account surplus in Q4, and expectations that Trump’s new tax policies could boost Chinese exports.

Euro Pushes Above $1.18 as EU Pauses US Trade Deal
The euro extended its advance beyond $1.18, rebounding from last week’s one-month lows after the European Parliament paused the ratification process of the US-EU trade deal agreed with US President Donald Trump last July in Scotland. The move followed Trump’s announcement that he plans to raise a temporary import tariff from 10% to 15%, after the Supreme Court blocked his broader tariff measures. Uncertainty lingered over whether the new 15% rate would take effect imminently in the UK or EU, despite assurances from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that existing agreements with around 20 countries remain unchanged. The single currency was further supported by stronger-than-expected German business confidence, which climbed to a six-month high. Investors now await inflation data from Germany, France, and Spain for clearer signals on how euro strength may affect price pressures and the outlook for the European Central Bank.

Sterling Climbs Above $1.35 on Softer Dollar
Sterling traded at $1.35, rebounding from last week’s one-month lows as the USD weakened amid renewed uncertainty over US trade policy. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced plans to lift a temporary global tariff to 15% from 10%, after the Supreme Court blocked his broader tariff measures. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stressed existing deals, including last year’s agreement with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, remain in force. Yet Andy Haldane, president of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the 15% tariff could apply from tomorrow unless the government provides clarification. The pound also drew support from a run of strong domestic data released last week. The latest S&P Global UK PMI showed private-sector activity expanding in February at its fastest pace since April 2024, while January retail sales exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, public sector net borrowing recorded a £30.4 billion surplus, the largest monthly surplus on record.

Bitcoin Drops on Risk Aversion
Bitcoin dipped below $65,000 on Monday, hitting a more than two-week low as renewed tariff concerns rattled global markets. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump said he would raise the 10% global levy announced a day earlier to 15%, following the US Supreme Court’s rejection of his sweeping reciprocal tariffs, adding fresh uncertainty to the economic outlook. The move sparked worries that trade agreements between the US and its partners could unravel, though senior US officials reiterated that existing deals would remain in place. Investors also weighed growing fears that the Trump administration might launch military action against Iran amid stalled nuclear negotiations, with diplomats set to reconvene in Geneva on Thursday. Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have lagged other asset classes, failing to serve as a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty, unlike gold.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude oil futures rose to around $72 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures rose toward $67 per barrel on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly seven months, as investors closely monitor a new round of talks between the US and Iran. President Trump said on Monday that he would prefer reaching an agreement with Iran, with talks set to resume on Thursday, but warned of a “very bad day” for Tehran if a nuclear deal fails to materialize. Trump also dismissed reports suggesting that the Pentagon is concerned about the risks of a prolonged military campaign against Iran. Fears over a potential military conflict in the Middle East, along with several supply disruptions, have supported crude prices in recent weeks, offsetting expectations of a sizable surplus this year. Meanwhile, traders are also assessing renewed trade risks, as Trump moves to introduce new tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down many of his sweeping levies.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at $5.18

Commodities

  • Crude Oil -0.19 @ 65.30
  • Nat Gas -0.05 @ 2.99
  • Gold +146.30 @ 5226.20
  • Silver +4.24 @ 86.52
  • Copper -0.06 @ 5.78

Silver Declines on Profit-Taking
Silver dropped more than 2% to below $86 per ounce on Tuesday, ending a four-day rally as investors booked profits amid persistent trade uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risks. In the latest developments, global logistics firm FedEx filed a lawsuit seeking a full refund after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs. On Monday, silver rallied after Trump threatened to lift global tariffs from 10% to 15% in response to the Court’s ruling. The shifting policy stance fueled concerns that existing trade deals could unravel, though major trading partners have so far maintained their agreements with Washington. Trump also warned of steeper duties on countries that “play games” with current trade arrangements. On the geopolitical front, markets remain focused on US-Iran talks scheduled to resume on Thursday. Trump reiterated his preference for a negotiated resolution but cautioned that serious consequences would follow if a nuclear deal is not secured.

Gold Retreats
Gold fell below $5,190 per ounce on Tuesday after four days of gains, as traders weighed renewed tariff risks and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The Trump administration is seeking to revive its global tariff agenda after the Supreme Court last week blocked many of the levies imposed last year. Following the decision, President Trump announced a new 10% tariff, set to take effect today, which he threatened to raise to 15%. On Monday, Trump warned of steeper duties on countries that “play games” with their existing trade deals. This comes as many countries reassess their trade positions after the ruling. The EU halted the ratification process of its trade agreement, while India deferred talks with the US. On the geopolitical front, attention remains on US-Iran nuclear talks, set to resume on Thursday. Trump said he prefers a negotiated settlement but cautioned that serious consequences could follow if a deal is not reached.

Copper Gains as Chinese Traders Return
Copper futures jumped nearly 2% toward $5.9 per pound on Tuesday, reversing losses from the previous session as traders in mainland China returned from the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Optimism over potentially lower US tariffs supported the rally after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Even with Trump threatening to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% in response to the ruling, China is still expected to face lower average levies on its metal-intensive exports. However, higher physical prices have raised concerns that top consumer China could curb purchases, pushing exchange-tracked inventories to their highest levels since 2024. Stockpiles in both London and New York have also been on the rise.

Baltic Dry Index Hits 3-Week High
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, was up for a second session on Monday, rising 3.4% to its highest level since February 2 at 2,112 points. Stronger demand for large ships carrying iron ore, along with steady coal and grain shipments, outweighed marginal softness in smaller vessels amid muted minor bulk activity. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, advanced by 5.2% to 3,210 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 0.8% to 1,853 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index added 20 points to 1,179 points

Palm Oil Slips Further to Open the Week
Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses on Monday, hovering below MYR 4,090 per tonne, pressured by a firmer ringgit and weaker Chicago soyoil futures. Sentiment also turned cautious after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, adding uncertainty to global agricultural trade flows and weighing on rival edible oils. Export concerns also persisted as cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments for February 1–20 fell between 8.9% and 12.6% from a month earlier. Still, losses were capped by expectations that China’s Dalian exchange will resume trading on Tuesday after a week-long Spring Festival holiday. In India, the top buyer, palm oil imports surged 51% in January to a four-month high, supported by a wider discount to soyoil. Meanwhile, industry data showed Malaysian inventories fell 7.7% month-on-month in the first month of 2026 while output dropped 13.8%, offering some fundamental support.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly higher note while markets in China and Japan were closed for holidays.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: CLOSED, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +2.5%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: CLOSED,
  • India’s Sensex: +0.6%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +0.7%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.6%.

In news:

  • South Korea’s Kospi (+0.7%) hit another record while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+2.5%) outperformed with trade-sensitive names showing strength.
  • U.S. Trade Representative Greer said that the effective tariff on imports from China has decreased to 40% from 45% after Friday’s opinion from the Supreme Court.
  • South Korea’s exports through the first 20 days of February were up 23.5% yr/yr with chip exports jumping 16.4%.
  • Former Bank of Japan policymaker Sakurai said that a March rate hike is possible if the yen faces renewed weakness.

In economic data:

  • New Zealand’s Q4 Retail Sales 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 0.6%; last 1.9%) and Core Retail Sales 1.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; last 1.2%). January Credit Card Spending 1.0% yr/yr (last -0.2%)
  • Singapore’s January CPI -0.5% m/m (last 0.3%); 1.4% yr/yr (last 1.2%). January Core CPI 1.0% yr/yr (last 1.2%)

Major European indices are mixed with Spain’s IBEX (+0.9%) showing strength thanks to outperformance in banks while Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) has been pressured by military contractors and automakers.

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%,
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.6%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.1%,
  • France’s CAC 40: -0.2%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.8%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.9%.

In news:

  • Germany’s auto association noted that Friday’s tariff ruling in the U.S. does not apply to main tariffs affecting the auto industry. German Chancellor Merz was reelected as CDU leader by a wide margin.

In economic data:

  • Germany’s February ifo Business Climate Index 88.6 (expected 88.4; last 87.6). February Current Assessment 86.7 (expected 86.1; last 85.7) and Business Expectations 90.5, as expected (last 89.6)
  • Italy’s January CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.2%); 1.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.2%)
  • Swiss January PPI -0.2% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.2%); -2.2% yr/yr (last -1.8%)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • Factory orders declined 0.7% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus: 0.9%) following a 2.7% increase in November. Excluding transportation, factory orders increased 0.4% after increasing 0.1% in November. Shipments of manufactured goods rose 0.5% after sliding 0.2% in November.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was concentrated in the transportation industry; otherwise, it was a decent month of order activity for durable goods.
  • President Trump raises global tariff to 15% from 10% for 150 days to replace the IEEPA tariffs that the Supreme Court invalidated; White House details several product and country exemptions; Commerce Department is expected to start various 301 investigations to impose permanent tariffs on specific countries
  • US Customs and Border Protection will stop collecting IEEPA tariffs as of Tuesday at 12:01 A.M ET
  • USTR Jamieson Greer says the U.S. will honor trade deals despite the Supreme Court ruling, according to CBS News
  • White House continuing the suspension of duty-free De Minimis treatment for all countries
  • European Commission statement on the recent judgment of the Supreme Court of the United States; requests full clarity on the steps the United States intends to take following the recent Supreme Court ruling
  • An armed man was killed by law enforcement after he entered a secure perimeter of Mar-a-Lago, according to the NY Times
  • The EU will propose freezing ratification of the trade deal with the U.S. until it receives details from the Trump administration on trade policy, according to Bloomberg
  • The EU will not accept an increase in tariffs, according to Reuters
  • The U.S. will hold nuclear talks with Iran Thursday. President Trump’s advisors are urging him not to bomb Iran, but Senator Lindsey Graham wants President Trump to ignore his advisors, according to Axios
  • President Trump is considering a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack, according to NY Times
  • Mexico security forces killed drug kingpin Nemesio “Mencho” Oseguera. The response was violent, WSJ
  • DHS implements emergency measures to conserve resources and manpower impacting travelers and FEMA responses to non-disaster areas
  • Airlines cancel thousands of flights due to winter storms, according to CNBC
  • Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine advising President Trump that a strike against Iran will carry significant risks; Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff want to give diplomacy a chance, according to Axios

US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Inches Up in February
The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing rose to 0.2 in February 2026 from -1.2 in the prior month, signaling near-stable conditions. Company outlook held steady at 3.1, while uncertainty rose to 6.5 but stayed below average. Employment growth continued, with the index unchanged at 7.5, workweeks lengthened as hours worked jumped to 6.1 from 0.7. Pricing pressures were mixed: finished goods prices held at 17.9, while raw materials costs eased to 31.7 from 36.7. Wage growth surged, the wages and benefits index climbed to 31.9 from 17.4. Looking ahead, manufacturers are optimistic: future production rose five points to 34.3, and future business activity dipped to 12.7.

US Factory Orders Ease as Expected
New orders for manufactured goods in the US fell by 0.7% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted $617.5 billion in December of 2025, trimming the six-month high growth of $621.9 billion in the previous month, and loosely in line with market expectations that it would contract 0.5%. Orders of durable goods fell by 1.4% to $319.9 billion, amid lower orders for transportation equipment (-5.4% to $113.9 billion), solely due to a drop in nondefense aircraft and parts (-24.8% to $26.7 billion). In turn, higher orders were recorded for computers and electronic products (3.1% to $27.9 billion), machinery (0.5% to $40.4 billion), fabricated metal products (0.9% to $42.6 billion), and primary metals (2.1% to $27.6 billion). Meanwhile, orders for nondurable goods were loosely unchanged for a second month at $297.6 billion.

Chicago Fed Activity Index Turns Positive in January
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January 2026 from -0.21 in December, marking its highest level since February 2025 and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. Production-related indicators drove the improvement, contributing +0.19 compared with -0.03 previously, while employment indicators edged up to +0.01 from -0.11. The sales, orders, and inventories category remained slightly negative at -0.02, though improved from -0.04, and personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution after subtracting -0.04 in December.

Trade Partners Stay After Court Blocks Tariffs: U.S. Trade Chief
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday that none of Washington’s trade partners have indicated plans to withdraw from existing agreements, despite a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated a broad portion of President Trump’s tariff program. On Friday, Trump introduced a temporary 10% tariff after the court struck down his earlier duties, which were imposed under an economic emergency law. He also ordered new investigations under alternative statutes that officials say could pave the way for fresh tariffs on multiple trading partners. A day later, he raised the temporary levy to 15%, the legal maximum. Separately, the EU has the tools to retaliate against the latest U.S. tariffs, France’s trade minister Nicolas Forissier told the Financial Times.

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp (AZ) sees Q4 revs above consensus
  • AMC Entertainment (AMC) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs
  • Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) beats by $0.03, beats on revs
  • Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) reports Q4 (Dec) results, revs in-line
  • Centene (CNC) management team plans to reaffirm guidance this week
  • Dominion Energy (D) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, extends through 2030 its long-term annual operating earnings-per-share-growth guidance of 5-7%
  • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) misses by $0.03, beats on revs; raises dividend
  • Dream Finders Homes (DFH) misses by $0.06; beats on revs
  • Easterly Government Properties (DEA) reports FFO in-line, revs in-line; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Emera (EMA) beats by $0.13
  • Equinox Gold (EQX) has filed its audited financial statements and related management’s discussion and analysis for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025
  • Freshpet (FRPT) beats by $0.26, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • ImmunityBio (IBRX) beats on top and bottom lines
  • GeneDx (WGS) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • Lincoln Educational Services’ (LINC) fourth quarter and full year 2025 results exceed financial guidance; continued strong growth forecasted for 2026
  • Sasol (SSL) reports H1 results
  • Stepan Company (SCL) misses by $0.42 (two estimates), misses on revs

2026 FEB 24

Pre-Market: AHCO AIN AS AMT APLS AWI ARVN AVNS BNS BRSL CECO CEG CIFR CLVT DOCN ELAN NVRI ESTA EXPD FERG FIS FWRG HRMY HSIC HD TILE KDP KNSA DRS LTH NOVT NRG OPCH PLNT PTLO RGEN SHLS SHC WLK XHR XMTR

After-Hours: ATEC AMC AXON ATRO SAM BBIO CWH CDNA CAVA CCC IMOS CLNE CORT CSGP CYTK DAWN ECG EVH EXLS EXPI EOG FSLR FLYW GMED GDDY HPQ HURN IPAR JAZZ LNWO LTC LCID MQ MTDR MATX MMSI MOS MELI NMFC PARR PRCT RRC O REZI RVLV SLDE SPXC SUI SUPN TALO SKT TEM TMDX TREX UFPT PCVX VRRM WDAY ZETA

THE WEEK AHEAD

WEEK 09: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23 to FEBRUARY 27

According to the PTSD*, Week 09 has FIVE trading days and is the fourth trading week in February 2026. The next Market Holiday is APR03. Seasonally, PTSD signals a slightly bullish week. February is the weakest of the year’s 6 bullish months.
We also need to keep in mind that, with the current POTUS, seasonals can go out of whack very easily.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices for 2026 FEBRUARY 24of Week 08 over a 21-year average are:

  • Dow Jones (DJIA): Mildly Bearish47.6%
  • S&P 500 (SPX): Mildly Bullish 52.4%
  • NASDAQ (COMP): Slightly Bearish 42.9%
  • *Russells 2000 (RUT): Very Bearish 33.3%

*The RUT is not listed in the STA; several penguins with a slide ruler calculated the 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs  for 2026 FEBRUARY 24 of Week 08 over a 15-year average are:

  • DIA – (15yr Avg):  Very Bearish 26.7%
  • SPY – (15yr Avg): Very Bearish 26.7%
  • QQQ – (15yr Avg): Rather Bearish 33.3%
  • RUT – (15yr Avg): Rather Bearish 33.3%

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 9:00 ET: December FHFA Housing Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.6%) and December S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%; prior 1.4%)
  • 10:00 ET: February Consumer Confidence (Briefing.com consensus 86.0; prior 84.5) and December Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

So much for the expected bullish momentum that might have come in on Monday. The seasonals show a very bearish session tonight, and the VIX is moving in agreement.

On the home front, the Call wing on my IC got auto-triggered at “maximum”; this leaves my Put wing without a winged hedge again. I will be looking into another hedge tonight.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)