A Penguin's Perspective

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WMO: Weekly Market Outlook (2026 Week 09|FEB23 – FEB027)

WMO of MONDAY to FRIDAY, 2026 FEBRUARY 23 to FEBRUARY 27

Stocks finished higher in a holiday-shortened week, with the S&P 500 (+1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%) outpacing the DJIA (+0.3%). Importantly, the S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average on Friday and the Nasdaq Composite snapped a five-week losing streak.

Mid- and small-cap stocks also participated, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.2%) and Russell 2000 (+0.7%) posting solid gains, highlighting broad-based buying amid ongoing rotation. Several mega-cap technology and communication services names, which had slipped in recent weeks following earnings-related weakness, garnered renewed buying interest, helping lift indexes and ETFs such as the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth (+1.5%) and PHLX Semiconductor (+1.5%). At the same time, software-focused areas like the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (-2.4%) continued to lag.

Corporate earnings and guidance remained central to market action, driving notable moves across multiple sectors and individual stocks throughout the week. Cyclical sectors including industrials (+1.7%), financials (+1.6%), and energy (+1.7%) contributed meaningfully to the advance, while defensives such as consumer staples (-2.3%) and health care (-0.6%) underperformed, giving back some of their strong gains from previous weeks.

Economic releases underscored a mixed backdrop. Advance fourth-quarter GDP came in at 1.4% versus the Briefing.com consensus of 3.0% (prior 4.4%), while the Q4 Chain Deflator was 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.3%; prior 3.8%), confirming that inflation remains above the Fed’s comfort level even as growth slows. December personal income rose 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior revised 0.4%), and personal spending increased 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior revised 0.4%), while the December PCE Price Index came in at 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%), with the core reading also 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.2%). The data collectively suggested that the economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, but elevated inflation keeps near-term rate-cut expectations in check.

Geopolitical and policy developments added further complexity. Oil experienced a volatile week amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, while Friday’s Supreme Court ruling on tariffs briefly unsettled trade-sensitive sectors and contributed to short-term market swings. These events, together with earnings-driven moves, created a dynamic week of headline-driven rotation across sectors and individual names.

Overall, the market demonstrated resilience, with mega-cap technology and communication services seeing a technical rebound, mid- and small-cap stocks participating broadly, and cyclical sectors contributing to gains. Defensive areas lagged, reflecting selective positioning amid a mix of macro, policy, and geopolitical developments, setting the stage for continued focus on earnings, inflation, and international risks in the weeks ahead.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.1% YTD +1.2% week-to-date
  • Russell 2000: +7.3% YTD +0.7% week-to-date
  • DJIA: +3.3% YTD +0.3% week-to-date
  • S&P 500: +0.9% YTD +1.1% week-to-date
  • Nasdaq Composite: -1.5% YTD +1.5% week-to-date

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Monday:

Market closed for President’s Day.

Tuesday:

Stocks had a volatile start to the holiday-abbreviated week, with the slight gains across the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (+0.1%) belying the intraday swings of the market. The Russell 2000 (flat) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) followed a similar course today and ended up on near flat lines. 

The major averages faced considerable losses this morning as the market opened to what appeared to be a continuation of weakness across its mega-cap components and many of its tech components. 

The information technology sector (+0.5%) traded as much as 1.0% lower in the morning but steadily chipped away at the early weakness, rising as much as 1.1% in the afternoon before finishing with a more modest gain. 

Several of the sector’s largest components mounted solid advances that masked broader weakness in the sector. Apple (AAPL 263.88, +8.10, +3.17%) was a mega-cap standout ahead of potential new product launches on March 4, while NVIDIA (NVDA 184.97, +2.16, +1.18%) and Broadcom (AVGO 332.54, +7.37, +2.27%) helped the PHLX Semiconductor Index (flat) erase its early losses that neared 2.5%.

However, software names never found their footing, sending the iShares GS Software ETF (-2.2%) firmly lower.

Mega-cap performance was mixed outside of the technology sector, with the communication services sector (-0.6%) finishing lower amid weakness in Alphabet (GOOG 302.82, -3.20, -1.05%). 

CNBC reported that Netflix (NFLX 77.00, +0.13, +0.17%) has granted Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 28.75, +0.76, +2.72%) a seven-day waiver to reopen potential deal talks with Paramount Skydance (PSKY 10.83, +0.51, +4.94%), which traded sharply higher today.

The consumer discretionary sector finished flat, as Tesla (TSLA 410.63, -6.81, -1.63%) was a mega-cap laggard, while Amazon (AMZN 201.15, +2.36, +1.19%) notched its first higher finish since Monday, February 2. All told, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.3% higher. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 24.12, +2.63, +12.24%) was the best-performing S&P 500 stock after Eliott Investment Management disclosed a roughly 10% stake in the company, while Genuine Parts (GPC 125.75, -21.41, -14.55%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component following an earnings miss and plans to split into two distinct companies. 

Other cyclical sectors posted mixed performances today. 

The financials sector (+1.0%) outperformed amid solid performances across major banking and card names, while Fiserv (FISV 63.45, +4.09, +6.89%) notched the widest after The Wall Street Journal reported that Jana Partners has built a stake of undetermined size in the company.

The industrials sector also finished nicely higher as Southwest Air (LUV 54.24, +3.14, +6.13%) rose after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, sending airline peers higher as well. 

Meanwhile, the energy sector (-1.4%) retreated as crude oil futures settled today’s session $0.52 lower (-0.8%) at $62.33 per barrel amid optimistic developments in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. 

Similarly, decreasing precious metals prices sent the materials sector (-1.2%) lower, with Vulcan Materials (VMC 302.19, -25.46, -7.77%) a notable post-earnings laggard. 

Defensive sectors generally retreated as tech and other growth stocks shook off their early weakness. The consumer staples sector (-1.5%) closed with the widest loss today. After an impressive run-up, Walmart (WMT 128.85, -5.04, -3.76%) moved lower ahead of its earnigns this week. 

General Mills (GIS 44.96, -3.38, -6.98%) sunk after lowering its FY26 outlook, while other food brands such as Campbell Soup (CPB 27.77, -1.72, -5.83%) and Conagra (CAG 18.89, -0.87, -4.40%) lagged after HHS Secretary Kennedy said on 60 Minutes that ultra-processed foods are responsible for the country’s obesity problems.

All told, it was an eventful start to the week, with earnings, guidance, brokerage research, and activist investors all generating some notable moves today. Action remains volatile across mega-cap and tech spaces, though the major averages were able to shake off the early weakness to notch slight gains today. 

U.S. Treasuries started the holiday-shortened week with a modest gain in the 30-year bond, while the 2-year note underperformed, giving back a chunk of its solid gain from Friday. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.44%, the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.05%, and the 30-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.68%. 

Reviewing today’s data:

  • February Empire State Manufacturing 7.1 (Briefing.com consensus 7.1); Prior 7.7
  • February NAHB Housing Market Index 36 (Briefing.com consensus 38); Prior 37

Wednesday:

Stocks had a solid session today, though they finished off their session highs as the market reacted to the release of the January FOMC minutes this afternoon. 

Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels. Still, the market’s expected timeline for its next rate cut remains relatively unchanged. While there was some profit-taking in reaction to the release, the market reversed its downward course and moved higher for the final half hour of the session. 

The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.3%) finished with roughly half of their earlier gains, supported by solid mega-cap leadership and relatively broad strength. The S&P 500 moved back into positive territory for the year, eclipsing its 50-day moving average (6,894.53) in the session but failing to close above the level. 

Strength was broad, with eight S&P 500 sectors finishing with gains. 

The information technology sector (+1.2%) was among the outperformers, as mega-cap and tech names led the market higher from the open. 

Software stocks were among the outperformers, garnering some bargain-hunting interest after prolonged weakness. Cadence Design (CDNS 305.01, +21.55, +7.60%) finished with the widest gain after Rosenblatt upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, while AppLovin (APP 404.39, +28.01, +7.44%) posted a similar gain. Even Microsoft (MSFT 399.60, +2.74, +0.69%), which has struggled in recent weeks following its latest earnings release, notched a higher finish. The iShares GS Software ETF finished 1.3% higher

NVIDIA (NVDA 187.98, +3.01, +1.63%) performed even better, contributing to the PHLX Semiconductor Index’s 1.0% gain. Micron (MU 420.95, +21.17, +5.30%) and other memory storage names rebounded particularly well from a weaker showing yesterday. 

Amazon (AMZN 204.79, +3.64, +1.81%) was another mega-cap standout, helping the consumer discretionary sector (+1.0%) finish higher. All told, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.6%) captured a nice gain despite some profit-taking in the afternoon. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Garmin (GRMN 236.95, +19.97, +9.20%) was one of the top-performing S&P 500 names after an earnigns beat, while MGM Resorts (MGM 37.17, +2.90, +8.46%) finished similarly amid a strong day for casino stocks after Caesars Entertainment’s (CZR 21.42, +2.47, +13.03%) earnings release. 

Global Payments (GPN 81.25, +11.48, +16.46%) was the S&P 500’s top performer as a result of its own earnings beat, leading strength in the financials sector (+0.8%), which benefitted from some buying activity across financial publishing and servicing stocks that have recently slid amid fears of AI disruption. 

Meanwhile, this year’s best-performing sector, the energy sector (+2.0%), once again captured the widest gain. Crude oil futures settled today’s session $2.66 higher (+4.3%) at $64.99 per barrel as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, with reports that both sides are preparing for military conflict. 

With growth and cyclical stocks mounting solid gains today, weakness was limited to the defensive utilities (-1.7%) and consumer staples (-0.5%) sectors, while the real estate sector (-1.5) also retreated. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) followed a similar trajectory to the major averages, finishing with around half of their earlier gains. 

Ultimately, today’s session was an encouraging sign given last week’s volatility and yesterday’s flattish showing. While the January FOMC minutes carried a hawkish tilt that trimmed some of the market’s earlier strength, the major averages still posted solid gains, supported by firm mega-cap leadership and constructive breadth. The ability to rebound after the initial reaction to the minutes suggests underlying demand remains intact, even as rate-cut expectations stay largely unchanged.

U.S. Treasuries had a modestly lower showing on Wednesday that pressured the complex from January highs that were reached during Tuesday’s session. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.46%, and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.08%. 

Reviewing today’s data:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 2.8%; Prior -0.3%
  • December Housing Starts 1.404 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.320 mln); Prior 1.322 mln, December Building Permits 1.448 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.412 mln); Prior 1.388 mln
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it is not the answer for a supply-constrained housing market. Single-unit permits were down overall, but they fell the sharpest in the South (-5.3%), which is the nation’s largest homebuilding region.
  • December Durable Orders -1.4% (Briefing.com consensus -2.6%); Prior was revised to 5.4% from 5.3%, December Durable Orders – ex transportation 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was concentrated in the transportation component. Otherwise, it was a solid report featuring a 0.6% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a key gauge of business spending.
  • December Industrial Production 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%, December Capacity Utilization 76.2% (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%); Prior was revised to 75.7% from 76.3%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production growth easily exceeded estimates thanks to a healthy 0.6% increase in manufacturing output, which was the biggest since February 2025, and a secondary boost from an increase in the output of utilities.

Thursday:

Stocks faced broad pressure today, which negated a chunk of yesterday’s gains across the S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (-0.5%). The major averages will enter the final session of a holiday-abbreviated week mostly higher, though within close proximity to their flatlines. 

While losses throughout the broader market were relatively modest, they were widespread. Eight S&P 500 sectors logged a lower finish, including several of yesterday’s outperformers. 

The financials sector (-0.9%) logged the worst finish, facing a combination of broad weakness and pressure across asset manager names such as Apollo Global Management (APO 118.34, -7.02, -5.60%) and Blackstone (BX 125.76, -7.14, -5.37%). The group faced pressure after Financial Times reported that Blue Owl Capital (OWL 11.58, -0.73, -5.93%) 11.12, -1.20, -9.71%) has halted redemptions in its private retail debt fund, though the company has since refuted the report. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (-0.5%) was another relative laggard after outperforming yesterday. EPAM Systems (EPAM 139.16, -28.53, -17.01%) was a laggard following its earnings, though it was the only real negative outlier in a sector that traded mostly modestly lower. The sector’s mega-cap components took a step back, with Apple (AAPL 260.58, -3.77, -1.43%) a “magnificent seven” laggard.

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.5%) logged a similar retreat with several notable earnings moves in the mix. eBay (EBAY 84.75, +2.57, +3.13%) was a standout, while Pool (POOL 218.36, -36.97, -14.48%), Carvana (CVNA 332.86, -28.67, -7.93%), and Booking Holdings (BKNG 4007.45, -262.54, -6.15%) moved sharply lower. 

Meanwhile, the energy sector (+0.6%) notched another higher finish as crude oil futures settled today’s session $1.43 higher (+2.2%) at $66.42 per barrel. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high, with The Washington Post reporting this afternoon that President Trump appears ready to order an attack on Iran.

The prospect of a potential military conflict saw solid gains across some defense names today, including Huntington Ingalls (HII 442.93, +18.04, +4.25%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT 666.59, +16.78, +2.58%). The iShares DJ Aerospace ETF finished 1.3% higher, contributing to strength within the industrials sector (+0.8%). 

The sector was also supported by a strong gain in Deere (DE 662.00, +68.73, +11.58%) after the company topped earnings estimates. 

Elsewhere, the utilities sector (+1.1%) captured the widest gain, attracting some rotational interest amid a slower day for growth stocks. 

However, the strength did not translate to other defensive sectors, as the health care sector (-0.3%) faced broad pressure while the consumer staples sector (-0.4%) lagged as cautious guidance saw Walmart (WMT 124.87, -1.75, -1.38%) move lower following its earnings release. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (flat) reclaimed their unchanged levels late in the session after trading with modest losses for most of the day. 

All told, today’s section reflected some caution in the market after a strong performance yesterday, with earnings and geopolitical headlines taking center stage as the market awaits its next catalyst. The market will not have to wait long, as tomorrow morning will bring the release of the December Personal Income/Outlays report, which includes the PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. 

While the data is somewhat dated, lingering inflation concerns and generally favorable signals from the economy have caused recent Fed commentary to lean hawkish, meaning that a hotter-than-anticipated print could further delay the market’s expectations of its next rate cut. 

U.S. Treasuries finished Thursday on a flat note after overcoming some early softness that briefly lifted yields back to their highs from Friday. The 2-year note yield settled up one basis point at 3.47%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.08%. 

Reviewing today’s data:

  • Weekly Initial Claims 206K (Briefing.com consensus 225K); Prior was revised to 229K from 227K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.869 mln; Prior was revised to 1.852 mln from 1.862 mln
    • The key takeaway from the report is its confirmatory signal that the labor market is still operating in a low-firing environment.
  • February Philadelphia Fed Index 16.3 (Briefing.com consensus 8.5); Prior 12.6
  • December Trade Balance -$70.3 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$55.8 bln); Prior was revised to -$53.0 bln from -$56.8 bln
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the wider deficit will detract from Q4 GDP growth estimates.
  • January Pending Home Sales -0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%); Prior was revised to -7.4% from -9.3%
  • December Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods $98.5 bln; Prior $82.8 bln
  • December Adv. Retail Inventories 0.0%; Prior -0.5%
  • December Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.2%; Prior 0.2%
  • December Lending Economic Index -0.2%; Prior -0.3%

Friday:

The stock market weathered a fair amount of volatility today amid a whirlwind of macro developments, with gains across the S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%), and DJIA (+0.5%) securing a higher week-to-date finish for the group. Notably, the S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average of 6,894.93. 

Stocks opened weaker following a somewhat disappointing batch of economic data before the open. The advance reading of Q4 GDP, which showed a disappointing combination of headline growth (1.4%; Briefing.com consensus 3.0%) and a hotter-than-expected Chain Deflator (3.7%; Briefing.com consensus 3.3%). 

Additionally, the December PCE Price Index (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) came in a touch hotter than expected, and while the core figure (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) was in line with expectations, the year-over-year PCE Price Index remains elevated at 3.0%, which could temper the market’s not-so-near-term rate cut expectations. 

Shortly after the open, several sectors surged higher following the Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump’s sweeping IEEPA tariffs. The enthusiasm was somewhat tempered as President Trump stated his intention to sign an order today to impose a global tariff of 10% under Section 122, which allows President Trump to impose up to a 15% global tariff for 150 days. The processing of potential refunds will likely be a messy process that is to be handled by the lower courts. 

While there was certainly some choppy action throughout the midday hours, stocks stabilized in the afternoon, logging a mostly higher finish. 

Nine S&P 500 sectors captured gains, with several notable gains in the mix. 

The communication services sector (+2.7%) notched the widest gain, supported by solid gains across its largest components, Alphabet (GOOG 314.90, +11.34, +3.74%) and Meta Platforms (META 655.66, +10.88, +1.69%). The Wall Street Journal reported that Alphabet is weighing financial strategies to boost AI chip ecosystem and challenge NVIDIA (NVDA 189.82, +1.92, +1.02%). 

The consumer discretionary sector (+1.3%) also outperformed, though it had by far the choppiest session, shooting higher after the tariff ruling before conceding the entirety of its gains that it slowly reclaimed. 

Amazon (AMZN 210.11, +5.25, +2.56%) was another mega-cap standout, unsurprisingly supported by the tariff ruling given its substantial import volume. 

eBay (EBAY 88.07, +3.32, +3.92%) and Garmin (GRMN 248.91, +9.11, +3.80%) added to recent post-earnings strength. 

NIKE (NKE 65.42, -0.19, -0.29%) had a particularly volatile session, trading both 3% above and below its baseline before logging a modest loss. 

Gains elsewhere were relatively tame. The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.6%) was a winner despite renewed weakness in software names that saw the iShares GS Software ETF (IGV) close 1.3% lower. Semiconductors had a solid day, and NVIDIA and Apple (AAPL 264.58, +4.00, +1.54%) both contributed strength amid a strong day for mega-caps. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.9% higher. 

Meanwhile, the energy sector (-0.7%) lagged as the recent surge in oil prices saw a modest stalling in momentum today despite all signs still pointing to conflict between the U.S. and Iran.  Crude oil futures settled today’s session $0.07 higher (+0.1%) at $66.49 per barrel. 

The defensive health care sector (-0.3%) also finished modestly lower. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.1%) logged a slight loss, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.6%) captured a solid gain. 

Overall, the market showed resilience in the face of policy and inflation crosscurrents, finishing the week in a constructive fashion. Importantly, the week’s advance snapped a five-week losing streak for the Nasdaq Composite, offering a welcome shift in near-term momentum for the growth-heavy index ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings release next week. 

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week with modest losses in most tenors, keeping yields above February lows that were reached on Tuesday. The 2-year note yield settled up one basis point to 3.48% (+7 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.09% (+3 basis points this week). 

Reviewing today’s data:

  • December Personal Income 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%, December Personal Spending 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%, December PCE Prices 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%, December PCE Prices – Core 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.2%
    • The key takeaway from the report, other than the fact that spending outpaced income in December, is that the core PCE Price Index sported a 3-handle on a year-over-year basis. This is a key inflation gauge for the Fed, and it doesn’t hold the key to a near-term rate cut.
  • Q4 GDP-Adv. 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%); Prior 4.4%, Q4 Chain Deflator-Adv. 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.3%); Prior 3.8%
    • The key takeaway from the report was the combination of weak growth and stubbornly high inflation in the fourth quarter, both of which run afoul of a market narrative that has been concentrated on stronger growth and lower inflation.
  • February S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI – Prelim 51.2; Prior 52.4
  • February S&P Global U.S. Services PMI – Prelim 52.3; Prior 52.7
  • December New Home Sales 745K (Briefing.com consensus 714K); Prior 758K
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakest growth was concentrated in the nation’s largest new home market–the South–underscoring the prevailing weakness in the housing market that has coincided with affordability constraints driven by higher prices and higher mortgage rates.
  • February Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final 56.6 (Briefing.com consensus 57.3); Prior 57.3
    • The key takeaway from the report is that there were stark differences in sentiment among consumers with stock holdings (large increase in sentiment) and consumers without stock holdings (a decline in sentiment).

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week with modest losses in most tenors, keeping yields above February lows that were reached on Tuesday. The trading day started with modest gains that were paced by the belly after a busy night on the global data front. Japan’s flash Manufacturing PMI for February (52.8) showed accelerating activity at a pace not seen since early 2022 while readings from Europe continued their longstanding anemic trend. The modest opening gains were reversed after the market received the advance reading of Q4 GDP, which showed a disappointing combination of disappointing headline growth (1.4%; Briefing.com consensus 3.0%) and a hotter than expected Chain Deflator (3.7%; Briefing.com consensus 3.3%). The pullback from starting highs deepened a bit later once the market learned that the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. However, the ruling is not expected to lead to a full rescission of tariffs, but rather an adjustment to the avenues through which these duties are implemented. Treasuries reached lows shortly after 10:00 ET with longer tenors remaining not far from their lows until the close while 5s and shorter tenors recovered the bulk of their losses that resulted from the Supreme Court announcement, though they still underperformed for the week. Crude oil recorded a slight gain after marking a fresh 2026 high (67.05) ahead of a weekend that could bring military action against Iran. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% to 97.81, trimming this week’s gain to 1.0% with its 50-day moving average (97.96) right above.

YIELD CHECK

  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.48% (+7 bps this week)
  • 3-yr: UNCH at 3.50% (+5 bps this week)
  • 5-yr: UNCH at 3.65% (+4 bps this week)
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.09% (+3 bps this week)
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.73% (+3 bps this week)

BOND YIELDS

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Holds Ground
The US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to 4.09% on Friday as investors navigated a tug-of-war between a landmark Supreme Court ruling and President Trump’s swift trade policy counter-move. While the court struck down the administration’s reciprocal tariffs, initially pressuring yields, the move was countered after Trump immediately vowed to sign a new 10% global tariff executive order. This pivot back to protectionism overshadowed a lackluster Q4 GDP print of 1.4%, which highlighted the economic drag of the government shutdown. Meanwhile, sticky core PCE inflation of 3% reinforced a higher-for-longer narrative, with FOMC minutes showing policymakers divided on the path forward. The 10-year note remains sensitive to the potential for massive tariff refunds acting as economic stimulus versus the inflationary pressure of the new global levy. Yields held their ground as the market weighed whether the legal setback for the White House would truly alter the Fed’s restrictive trajectory.

  • 3M: +1 bps at 3.69%
  • 2Y: +8 bps at 3.48%
  • 5Y: +4 bps at 3.65%
  • 10Y: +4 bps at 4.08%
  • 30Y: +3 bps at 4.72%

There’s an increase of yields across the board, with the highest increase at 2Y and lowest increase in 30Y which indicates a slight flattening of the yield curve.

EARNINGS

S&P 500 Reporting Highest Revenue Growth in 3 Years

At this late stage of the earnings season, the (blended) revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q4 is 9.0%. If 9.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022 (11.0%). At the sector level, ten of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year revenue growth. Three of these ten sectors are reporting double-digit revenue growth: Information Technology, Communication Services, and Health Care.

However, the Q4 revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 has been increasing over a longer timeframe. On September 30, the estimated revenue growth rate for Q4 was 6.5%. On December 31, the estimated revenue growth rate for Q4 was 7.8%. Today, the (blended) revenue growth rate is 9.0%. Which sectors and companies have been the largest contributors to the increase in the Q4 revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 since December 31?

At the sector level, the Information Technology, Health Care, Communication Services, and Industrials sectors have been the largest contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 since December 31.

In the Information Technology sector, the positive revenue surprises reported by Apple ($143.76 billion vs. $138.39 billion), Super Micro Computer ($12.68 billion vs. $10.42 billion), and Microsoft ($81.27 billion vs. $80.31 billion) have been substantial contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the index since December 31. As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the Information Technology sector has increased to 20.6% from 17.9% over this period.

In the Health Care sector, the positive revenue surprises reported by Cigna Group ($72.50 billion vs. $70.31 billion), CVS Health ($105.69 billion vs. $103.70 billion), Eli Lilly & Company ($19.29 billion vs. $17.94 billion), and Centene Corporation ($49.73 billion vs. $48.39 billion) have been significant contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the index since December 31. As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the Health Care sector has increased to 10.3% from 9.0% over this period.

In the Communication Services sector, the positive revenue surprises reported by Alphabet ($113.83 billion vs. $111.32 billion) and Meta Platforms ($59.89 billion vs. $58.46 billion) have been substantial contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the index since December 31. As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the Communication Services sector has increased to 12.2% from 10.2% over this period.

In the Industrials sector, the positive revenue surprises reported by Boeing ($23.95 billion vs. $22.60 billion), RTX Corporation ($24.24 billion vs. $22.69 billion), and Caterpillar ($19.13 billion vs. $17.85 billion) have been significant contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the index since December 31. As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the Industrials sector has increased to 7.8% from 5.8% over this period.

Outside of these four sectors, the positive revenue surprises reported by Apollo Global Management ($9.86 billion vs. $4.77 billion), Phillips 66 ($36.33 billion vs. $33.86 billion), Amazon.com ($213.39 billion vs. $211.44 billion), and Ford Motor ($45.90 billion vs. $43.60 billion) have also been substantial contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q4 since December 31.

It is interesting to note that analysts believe the S&P 500 will report lower revenue growth starting in Q1 2026. For Q1 2026 through Q4 2026, the estimated (year-over-year) revenue growth rates for the S&P 500 are 8.7%, 7.9%, 7.3%, and 7.4%, respectively.

01-sp500-revenue-growth-q122-to-q425
02-sp500-q425-revenue-growth-rate-
03-sp500-revenue-growth-q4-2025
04-sp500-revenue-growth-q424-to-q426

By John Buters | 2026 FEBRUARY 17 | Factset.com

WEEK 09 EARNINGS CALENDAR

  • Monday (Feb 23)
    • Pre-Market: AXSM D DPZ DEA EMA FRPT WGS SCL
    • After-Hours: ACVA ADUS ALSN AESI BBBY BCC BMRN BWXT CNNE CWEN FANG EVER FWRD HLX HIMS IIPR INVX JBTM KEYS KTOS MAX MYGN OKE OVV PAY PRIM KWR RHP SKWD TNC UFPI UCTT VVX VNOM VIR ZD
    Tuesday (Feb 24)
    • Pre-Market:  AHCO AIN AS AMT APLS AWI ARVN AVNS BNS BRSL CECO CEG CIFR CLVT DOCN ELAN NVRI ESTA EXPD FERG FIS FWRG HRMY HSIC HD TILE KDP KNSA DRS LTH NOVT NRG OPCH PLNT PTLO RGEN SHLS SHC WLK XHR XMTR
    • After-Hours:  ATEC AMC AXON ATRO SAM BBIO CWH CDNA CAVA CCC IMOS CLNE CORT CSGP CYTK DAWN ECG EVH EXLS EXPI EOG FSLR FLYW GMED GDDY HPQ HURN IPAR JAZZ LNWO LTC LCID MQ MTDR MATX MMSI MOS MELI NMFC PARR PRCT RRC O REZI RVLV SLDE SPXC SUI SUPN TALO SKT TEM TMDX TREX UFPT PCVX VRRM WDAY ZETA
  • Wednesday (Feb 25)
    • Pre-Market: ACHC ALKS APG AROC ASPN AVA BMO BLMN CTRI CRCL YOU DIN DOLE DRVN FSS HAYW HUT HOV HNI IMCR IONS LFST LINE LIVN LOW MDLN MGPI NMRK ODD OC PLAB PNW RXRX SWX STWD SHOO TBLA TJX TPH UTHR XPEL
    • After-Hours: ACAD ADMA APA ADTN A ALKT RCUS ARRY BBSI BJRI AI WHD CWT CBZ CHE CPK CHYM CHRD CHDN DBRG DORM ECPG ENVX EPR WTRG EE FSK FTAI GDRX GRBK HEI IBTA IMAX NGVT IONQ JOBY KNTK KGS LMAT MGNI VAC MIAX MIRM MEG MYRG NSA NRDS NOG NTNX NVDA ORA OUT PSKY PEB PR PSTG RVMD ROOT RXST CRM SRPT SDGR SDRL SEZL SBGI SKYT SM SMA SNOW SARO SNPS TDOC TTD TKO TCOM USPH UHS URBN VECO VCYT VICI VSEC ZM
  • Thursday (Feb 26)
    • Pre-Market: ACMR GOLF AMBP ARHS ACIW BIDU BSY ONC BCRX CARS CELH LNG CQP CM COLL QBTS DCI DCO ECVT EME ENOV FA FTRE FTDR FCN FOUR ROCK GCT GIL GTN HTZ HRL IBP IART NTLA INSW SJM KBR KRP KOP DNUT KYMR LNTH LGND LOAR MNKD MIDD TIGO VYX NXST NOMD NVCR NVAX PZZA PAYO PENN PRGO PLTK PRMB PRVA PEG Q RYTM RY SRE SHAK TGLS TFX BLD TD TRS PRKS VTRS VCEL VIPS VISN VST VITL WD WRBY WBD WWW
    • After-Hours: ALHC AMBA AHR AAOI ACA ARLO AGO AUGO ADSK AVPT AES XYZ BCO CAI CERT CON CRWV CTRA CPNG CRNX CUBE DELL XRAY DRH DV DUOL ESTC EVTC FIGS FIGR FLUT FOXF GLOB GRND HGV ICFI INOD INTU MASI MTZ MNST MP NTRA NHI NATL NTAP LASR SMR OS OPK PCRX PAR PBA PGNY RLJ RKT RKLB SBAC SOLV SOUN STRA RUN SG SNDX TLN WULF BWIN REAL TPC WPM XPOF ZS
  • Friday (Feb 27)
    • Pre-Market: AMR ANIP BTSG CLMT DK FRO NIQ GOGO NWN SHO
      After-Hours: GSAT

SEASONALS

WEEK 09: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23 to FEBRUARY 27

According to the PTSD*, Week 09 has FIVE trading days and is the fourth trading week in February 2026. The next Market Holiday is APR03. Seasonally, PTSD signals a slightly bullish week. February is the weakest of the year’s 6 bullish months.
We also need to keep in mind that, with the current POTUS, seasonals can go out of whack very easily.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices Week 09 over a 21-year average, and the PTSD’s stats for Index ETFs over a 15-year average; now with a weekly average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs for Week 09– 15 year AVERAGE.

ANALYSIS

PUT/CALL RATIOS

Any reading above 1.00 is regarded as bearish.
As a common practice among professionals, it is worth noting that the big-money indicators are the Index and ETF Put/Call Ratios, while Equity Put/Call Ratios are mostly for novice/amateur participation.

VOLUMES

SHILLER PE RATIO

The Shiller PE Ratio, as of Fri 20 Feb, is at 40.20, 1.16% higher than the previous week of 39.74. The Shiller PE ratio dipped below for 40 last week for the first time this week, and rose again to above 40 this week.

This is more than double of its mean (17.34) and its median (16.07). At this level, the ratio is above the middle between the historical high (44.19) and the mean or the median. The U.S. market printed its third highest Shiller PE Ratio in its history at 40.94 on 9 Jan 2026. The largest bubble remains as December 1999 at 44.19

DAILY MONITORING TABLE (Last 5 Weeks)
There were 2 bullish convergent sessions this week.
Over the last 5 weeks (23 trading sessions), there were 4 bearish divergent sessions, 8 bullish convergent sessions, and 11 divergent sessions (between the daily percentage changes and the market internals).

UVOL/DVOL and ADVANCES vs DECLINERS for NYSE and NASDAQ
In this shortened trading week, the Bulls were slightly more committed, producing 2 bullish convergent sessions, albeit with pretty low ratios of just 2:1 at the highest.

THE WEEK AHEAD

US Economic Releases

  1. Mon 23 Feb
    • FOMC Member Waller Speaks
  2. Tue 24 Feb
    • CB Consumer Confidence
    • Richmond Manufacturing Index
    • President Trump Speaks
  3. Wed 25 Feb
    • Nothing of note
  4. Thu 26 Feb
    • Unemployment Claims
  5. Fri 27 Feb
    • Core PPI m/m
    • PPI m/m

International Releases

  1. Mon 23 Feb
    • EU: ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  2. Tue 24 Feb
    • UK: Monetary Policy Report Hearings
    • AU: CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Trimmed Mean CPI m/m
  3. Wed 25 Feb
    • AU: RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
  4. Thu 26 Feb
    • EU: ECB President Lagarde Speaks
    • JP: Tokyo Core CPI y/y
  5. Fri 27 Feb
    • EU: German Prelim CPI m/m

Week Ahead
Results and guidance by Nvidia next week will serve as bellwether for the global AI demand that has carried US equity markets in the last quarters. US economic data will be headlined by producer prices, housing prices, consumer confidence gauges, and leading indicators by regional Federal Reserve banks. Consumer prices will be the focus in Germany, France, Australia, and Singapore. In turn, GDP aggregates for the fourth quarter are expected from Canada, Switzerland, India, and Turkey. Lastly, the People’s Bank of China will set key prime rates as the world’s second largest economy returns from its Lunar New Year holiday. The Bank of Korea will also hold a policy decision.

Americas
In the US, fourth-quarter earnings will continue to drive market sentiment next week, with results due from major companies including Nvidia, Berkshire Hathaway, Salesforce, Keurig Dr Pepper, HP, Snowflake, Synopsys, The Trade Desk, Intuit, and Baidu. Investors will also monitor speeches from several Fed officials, after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting highlighted divisions over the interest-rate outlook and raised questions about the pace of potential rate cuts. On the data front, attention will center on Friday’s US Producer Price Index report. Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in January, slowing from December’s 0.5% gain, while core PPI is seen increasing 0.3% after a 0.7% jump. Other key releases include factory orders, the Case-Shiller home price index, Conference Board consumer confidence, and regional gauges such as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Chicago PMI, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. Elsewhere in America, markets will track Canada’s fourth-quarter GDP and current account figures, alongside Mexico’s trade balance and Brazil’s unemployment rate.

Europe
Major European economies including Germany, France and Spain will publish preliminary February inflation data, with German price growth expected to ease toward the European Central Bank’s 2% target, holding near 2.1% on the EU harmonized measure. In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate Index is seen rising to a four month high, while the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator may improve for a second month. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 6.3%, with the number of jobless nearing 3 million, and France will also release labor market figures. In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer is expected to decline again. Additional releases include Eurozone car registrations, business and consumer surveys, and GDP data from Switzerland and Turkey. In the United Kingdom, focus will be on CBI distributive trades, GfK confidence and Nationwide house prices.

Asia Pacific
In China, markets will reopen next week following the extended Lunar New Year holiday, though no major economic releases are scheduled. The People’s Bank of China is widely expected to keep its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. In Japan, attention will turn to January industrial production which is expected to have surged 5.3%, retail sales, housing starts, and construction orders, alongside Tokyo inflation data for February. In India, focus will turn to GDP growth figures for the last quarter. Australia is set to report inflation data, with the annual rate likely easing to 3.7% in January from 3.8% previously. Additional releases include fourth-quarter construction work done and private capital expenditure. Elsewhere in the region, inflation data are due from Singapore and Hong Kong while trade figures are expected from Thailand, the Philippines, and Hong Kong. New Zealand will publish retail sales data, and Singapore and Hong Kong are scheduled to release final GDP readings. Meanwhile, central banks in Thailand and South Korea will decide on monetary policy.

By andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com | 2026 FEBRUARY 20

ANALYSIS

Volumes were lower than average on both the NYSE and NASDAQ this week. The VIX has left 20 and dropped a tab to 19. Most reports point to a weaker economy, while earnings reports have been rather positive. The disconnect from Main Street and Wall Street is strong,

COMMENTARY

It was a nice week for me. I slept well, enjoyed CNY, and just watched the SPX IC Flap away. It is now in the happy zone of increasing “time decay”.

Dear D.W. Penguin.
Somehow, my emails are not reaching you and are bouncing back. (Gmail says your current email is not working.)
Could I trouble you to email me again with your new email address, please?
— Percy

Happy Hunting!!

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)