A Penguin's Perspective

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Daily Market Analysis – 20260217

DMA of 2026 FEBRUARY 17 TUESDAY AMC.

Stocks had a volatile start to the holiday-abbreviated week, with the slight gains across the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (+0.1%) belying the intraday swings of the market. The Russell 2000 (flat) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) followed a similar course today and ended up on near flat lines. 

The major averages faced considerable losses this morning as the market opened to what appeared to be a continuation of weakness across its mega-cap components and many of its tech components. 

The information technology sector (+0.5%) traded as much as 1.0% lower in the morning but steadily chipped away at the early weakness, rising as much as 1.1% in the afternoon before finishing with a more modest gain. 

Several of the sector’s largest components mounted solid advances that masked broader weakness in the sector. Apple (AAPL 263.88, +8.10, +3.17%) was a mega-cap standout ahead of potential new product launches on March 4, while NVIDIA (NVDA 184.97, +2.16, +1.18%) and Broadcom (AVGO 332.54, +7.37, +2.27%) helped the PHLX Semiconductor Index (flat) erase its early losses that neared 2.5%.

However, software names never found their footing, sending the iShares GS Software ETF (-2.2%) firmly lower.

Mega-cap performance was mixed outside of the technology sector, with the communication services sector (-0.6%) finishing lower amid weakness in Alphabet (GOOG 302.82, -3.20, -1.05%). 

CNBC reported that Netflix (NFLX 77.00, +0.13, +0.17%) has granted Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 28.75, +0.76, +2.72%) a seven-day waiver to reopen potential deal talks with Paramount Skydance (PSKY 10.83, +0.51, +4.94%), which traded sharply higher today.

The consumer discretionary sector finished flat, as Tesla (TSLA 410.63, -6.81, -1.63%) was a mega-cap laggard, while Amazon (AMZN 201.15, +2.36, +1.19%) notched its first higher finish since Monday, February 2. All told, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.3% higher. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 24.12, +2.63, +12.24%) was the best-performing S&P 500 stock after Eliott Investment Management disclosed a roughly 10% stake in the company, while Genuine Parts (GPC 125.75, -21.41, -14.55%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component following an earnings miss and plans to split into two distinct companies. 

Other cyclical sectors posted mixed performances today. 

The financials sector (+1.0%) outperformed amid solid performances across major banking and card names, while Fiserv (FISV 63.45, +4.09, +6.89%) notched the widest after The Wall Street Journal reported that Jana Partners has built a stake of undetermined size in the company.

The industrials sector also finished nicely higher as Southwest Air (LUV 54.24, +3.14, +6.13%) rose after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, sending airline peers higher as well. 

Meanwhile, the energy sector (-1.4%) retreated as crude oil futures settled today’s session $0.52 lower (-0.8%) at $62.33 per barrel amid optimistic developments in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. 

Similarly, decreasing precious metals prices sent the materials sector (-1.2%) lower, with Vulcan Materials (VMC 302.19, -25.46, -7.77%) a notable post-earnings laggard. 

Defensive sectors generally retreated as tech and other growth stocks shook off their early weakness. The consumer staples sector (-1.5%) closed with the widest loss today. After an impressive run-up, Walmart (WMT 128.85, -5.04, -3.76%) moved lower ahead of its earnigns this week. 

General Mills (GIS 44.96, -3.38, -6.98%) sunk after lowering its FY26 outlook, while other food brands such as Campbell Soup (CPB 27.77, -1.72, -5.83%) and Conagra (CAG 18.89, -0.87, -4.40%) lagged after HHS Secretary Kennedy said on 60 Minutes that ultra-processed foods are responsible for the country’s obesity problems.

All told, it was an eventful start to the week, with earnings, guidance, brokerage research, and activist investors all generating some notable moves today. Action remains volatile across mega-cap and tech spaces, though the major averages were able to shake off the early weakness to notch slight gains today. 

U.S. Treasuries started the holiday-shortened week with a modest gain in the 30-year bond, while the 2-year note underperformed, giving back a chunk of its solid gain from Friday. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.44%, the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.05%, and the 30-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.68%. 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +7.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +6.9% YTD
  • DJIA: +3.1% YTD
  • S&P 500: flat YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -2.9% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 49533 (+0.07%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 22578 (+0.14%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6843 (+0.10%). 
  • Action came on higher than average volume for NYSE but lower for Nasdaq (NYSE 1,327 mln vs avg. of 1,299 mln; NASDAQ 7,802 mln vs avg. of 8,674 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (552 mln/738 mln) and Nasdaq (3707 mln/4038 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners on NYSE but not Nasdaq (NYSE 1436/1309; NASDAQ 2320/2513)
  • Mixed new 52-week/lows (NYSE 188/64, NASDAQ 149/285).

After-Hours Action

US equity futures were broadly unchanged on Wednesday as investors awaited minutes from the Fed’s last policy meeting for clearer guidance on the trajectory of interest rates. Markets are also focused on Friday’s release of the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. In Tuesday’s regular session, the Dow edged up 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.14%, with Wall Street posting tepid gains as AI worries lingered. Financials outperformed, with JPMorgan Chase up 1.5% and Citigroup 2.7%, after Fed Governor Michael Barr indicated that policy may need to remain restrictive for an extended period, reinforcing expectations for resilient net interest margins. Among mega-cap tech names, selective positioning within AI leaders drove gains in Nvidia (+1.2%), Apple (+3.2%), and Broadcom (+2.3%). In contrast, investors continued to rotate out of richly valued software stocks, with Salesforce falling 2.9%, Intuit declining 5.1%, and Oracle losing 3.8%.

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: TCMD +19.9% (also acquires LymphaTech), USNA +12.5%, RSI +9.5%, PBI +9.4%, ATRC +8.2%, RBA +6.6%, SSRM +6.4%, CE +6.2%, CDNS +5%, WTTR +4.6%, AMRZ +4.5% (approves $1 bln share repurchase program and special dividend of $0.44/share), CZR +3.8%, HL +1.9%, ESI +1.8%, NNE +1.1%, FE +0.9%, KVUE +0.5% (also to reduce workforce by approximately 3.5%), ROG +0.4%, EQT +0.4%, MCY +0.3%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: NYT +3.3% (Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New NYT position), STLD +3.2% (co and SGH Ltd confirm final share proposal to acquire BlueScope Steel), STAA +2.3% (FDA approves an expanded age indication for EVO/EVO+ Visian Implantable Collamer Lenses), DRS +1.9% (awarded contracts for the Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ), BKKT +1.9% (new partnership with Nexo), META +0.9% (strategic partnership with NVIDIA (NVDA) spanning on-premises, cloud and AI infrastructure), NVDA +0.8% (strategic partnership with Meta (META) spanning on-premises, cloud and AI infrastructure), NVT +0.8% (files mixed shelf offering), ADI +0.7% (increases dividend), AAPL +0.4% (Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: lowered AAPL), OVV +0.3% (announces agreement to sell its Anadarko assets for $3 bln), VYX +0.1% (increases share repurchase authorization to $300 mln), APTV +0.1% (plans to complete the Electrical Distribution Systems business separation by April 1)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SMWB -17.2%, ACLS -14.4%, LZB -10.1%, PANW -7.7%, MKSI -6.1%, HUN -3.5%, RSG -1%, BBNX -0.9%, BRSP -0.9%, DVN -0.9%, TOL -0.5%, HALO -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: APLD -7.9% (NVIDIA (NVDA) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: exited APLD), CMPS -6.2% (stock offering), ANET -4.1% (in response to NVDA/META partnership), POR -3.4% (stock offering), GTY -2.4% (stock offering), WPC -2.2% (stock offering), LSCC -1.9% (launches joint cyber resilience reference kit), SNDK -1.8% (stock offering by selling shareholder (WDC)), ZJK -1.6% (files for $300 mln mixed shelf offering), SMX -1.3% (stock offering by selling shareholders), EPRT -1% (stock offering), AGI -0.6% (mineral reserves and resources for FY25), VAL -0.2% (issues fleet status report), HAL -0.2% (receives multiyear contract from KS Orka Renewables)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries started the holiday-shortened week with a modest gain in the 30-yr bond while the 2-yr note underperformed, giving back a chunk of its solid gain from Friday. The entire complex started the day in positive territory after a night that lacked the participation of markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea due to the Lunar New Year. The higher start briefly pressured yields to fresh lows for the month, but resistance was found after the upbeat open sent the 2-yr yield toward its low from October (3.378%). Treasuries backed down from their highs immediately after the start with the 2-yr note continuing its steady reversal into the close while the 10-yr note found support near its unchanged level in mid-morning action, remaining little changed for the rest of the session. The market received just two economic reports that did not invite a noteworthy reaction, but tomorrow’s session will feature a full slate of data and a $16 bln 20-yr bond auction at 13:00 ET. Crude oil fell toward its 200-day moving average (62.41) while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.16.

Yields

  • 2-yr: +3 bps to 3.44%
  • 3-yr: +2 bps to 3.47%
  • 5-yr: +1 bp to 3.62%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.05%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 4.68%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index rose to above 97.5 on Tuesday, extending the rebound from earlier in the session as markets assessed the rate outlook for the Federal Reserve against those of other major central banks. While a tame inflation reading for January consolidated bets that the US central bank will deliver more than one rate cut this year, a robust macroeconomic backdrop favored calls by more hawkish members of the FOMC that have recently been rotated into the voting group. These were recently backed by sharp growth in non-farm employment during January and the upswing in employment counts by the ADP. Additionally, GDP data due later this week is expected to show another quarter of expansion. Pullbacks in G10 currencies also aided the greenback. Slower wage growth in the UK pressured the pound sterling, and declines in gauges of underlying inflation weakened the Canadian dollar.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.1850
  • GBP/USD: -0.5% to 1.3563
  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.8848
  • USD/JPY: -0.1% to 153.24

Sterling Slides on Cooling Jobs Data
The British pound fell below $1.36, touching its weakest level since February 5, after fresh data signaled further softening in the UK labor market, reinforcing expectations of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose 4.2% in the three months to December, the slowest pace since the three months to August 2024 and below forecasts of 4.6%. Excluding bonuses, wage growth matched expectations at 4.2%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, its highest level since early 2021 and slightly above economists’ expectations of 5.1%, pointing to a gradually cooling labor market. Traders have ramped up bets on BoE rate cuts, fully pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction at April’s meeting and assigning a 76% probability that the cut will occur in March. Two cuts are now fully priced by November, up from around 48 basis points previously.

Yen Rises on BOJ Rate Hike Bets
The Japanese yen strengthened toward 153 per dollar on Tuesday, recovering losses from the previous session amid growing speculation of an earlier interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Former BOJ board member Saiji Adachi said on Monday that the central bank is likely to raise its benchmark rate in April, having accumulated sufficient data by then to justify a move. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also said that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made no specific requests during their regular meeting on Monday, where they discussed the economy. Despite concerns that Takaichi could obstruct the BOJ’s policy normalization plans, she has so far refrained from opposing a rate increase amid market pressure. Meanwhile, the yen declined on Monday after Japan’s fourth-quarter economic growth came in well below expectations due to weak domestic demand.

Canadian Dollar Loses Ground After Inflation Data
The Canadian dollar weakened toward 1.367 per US dollar, pulling back after briefly testing the 16 month highs reached in late January, as softer domestic inflation and fading terms of trade support eroded its policy and commodity backing. January CPI slowed to 2.3% while the Bank of Canada’s trimmed mean eased to 2.4%, with gasoline plunging 16.7% year over year and shelter inflation cooling, reinforcing evidence that price pressures are moderating and reducing the likelihood of renewed tightening. With the policy rate at 2.25% and officials signaling that settings are broadly appropriate, markets are flattening the expected rate path, narrowing Canada’s yield support relative to peers. At the same time, crude oil faces renewed supply headwinds as OPEC+ considers resuming output increases in April, limiting gains in Canada’s key export and weakening the terms of trade channel that typically underpins the loonie.

COMMODITIES

Commodities

  • Crude Oil -0.52 @ 62.33
  • Nat Gas -0.21 @ 3.03
  • Gold -138.00 @ 4906.10
  • Silver -4.21 @ 73.74
  • Copper -0.16 @ 5.64

Gold Extends Downturn
Gold fell more than 2% to around $4,870 per ounce as a strengthening US Dollar Index and recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve easing eroded bullion’s near-term support. The USD extended its rebound as investors reassessed monetary policy trajectories, with January’s softer US inflation print reinforcing expectations for more than one rate cut this year, robust nonfarm payroll growth, firm private hiring, and projections of continued GDP expansion have tempered the case for an imminent or aggressive easing cycle. That combination has preserved US rate differentials and lifted the dollar, exerting downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold. Although ongoing geopolitical flashpoints, including renewed US-Iran nuclear discussions and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, continue to underpin gold’s safe-haven appeal, the dominant driver in this phase has been the currency channel.

Copper Falls in Thin Holiday Trading
Copper fell 1% to around $5.7 per pound on Tuesday, slipping to its lowest level since early January as liquidity thinned amid Lunar New Year holidays in China and other Asian markets. The red metal also faced pressure after global inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange surged to their highest level in more than two decades. Total readily available copper stockpiles across exchanges in Shanghai, London, and New York climbed above 1 million tons. In corporate news, BHP Group reported strong earnings, with higher copper output helping offset weakness in its China exposed iron ore and steelmaking coal divisions. Despite the recent pullback, copper remains supported by ongoing supply disruptions and robust global demand from power grids, data centers, and electric vehicles. This structural demand continues to intensify competition among major industrial economies including China, the US, Canada, Europe, and India to secure long term supply.

Silver Drops More Than 2%
Silver fell more than 2% to below $73.5 per ounce, extending its three-week slide as a firmer US Dollar and recalibrated Federal Reserve expectations outweighed recent support from softer inflation. The DXY climbed as resilient nonfarm payrolls, solid private hiring, and expectations of continued US growth tempered the case for rapid rate cuts, sustaining rate differentials and pressuring dollar-denominated metals. The move follows January’s speculative surge, driven largely by Chinese retail flows, that pushed silver to record highs before a sharp unwind toward $64 as leveraged positions were liquidated. With Asian liquidity normalizing after holidays, focus now turns to Fed minutes and the core PCE release for clearer guidance on the policy path, while industrial demand signals remain secondary to currency dynamics in driving near-term price action.

Baltic Dry Index Edges Down
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, fell about 0.2% to 2,095 points on Tuesday, following a 0.8% increase in the previous session. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, eased 0.5% to 3,194 points; and the supramax index fell 0.3% to 1,194 points. Meanwhile, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 0.4% to 1,792 points.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly higher start to the week while markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea were closed for Lunar New Year.  All these markets will remain closed tomorrow with Hong Kong scheduled to reopen on Friday, while China’s markets will remain closed until next week.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: -0.4%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: CLOSED,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: CLOSED,
  • India’s Sensex: +0.2%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: CLOSED,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%.

In news:

  • Japan’s Q4 GDP report, which was released on Sunday evening, disappointed, showing growth of just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.4%) while the year-over-year reading was up 0.2% (expected 1.6%). The report pressured rate hike expectations for March, but the market continues expecting a hike to be announced in April.

In economic data:

  • Japan’s December Tertiary Industry Activity Index 8.40 (last -2.50)
  • New Zealand’s January FPI 2.5% m/m (last -0.3%)

Major European indices trade mixed.

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%,
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.2%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.3%,
  • France’s CAC 40: -0.2%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.1%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.2%.

In news:

  • The market grew more confident about the probability of a March rate cut from the Bank of England after underwhelming December employment figures from the U.K.
  • Miner BHP reported strong results for the first half of its fiscal year and announced a silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals.
  • Shipper Hapag-Lloyd agreed to acquire ZIM Integrated Shipping.
  • Sweden’s finance minister said that his country has no plans to adopt the euro in the coming years.

In economic data:

  • Eurozone’s February ZEW Economic Sentiment 39.4 (expected 45.7; last 40.8)
  • Germany’s February ZEW Economic Sentiment 58.3 (expected 65.8; last 56.9) and ZEW Current Conditions -65.9 (expected -65.7; last -72.7). January CPI 0.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.0%); 2.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.8%)
  • U.K.’s December Average Earnings Index + Bonus 4.2% yr/yr (expected 4.6%; last 4.6%). December three-month employment change 52,000 (last 82,000) and December Unemployment Rate 5.2%, as expected (last 5.1%). January Claimant Count change 28,600 (expected 22,800; last 2,700). Q3 Labour Productivity 1.1% (expected -0.6%; last -0.5%)
  • Italy’s December trade surplus EUR6.037 bln (expected surplus of EUR4.75 bln; last surplus of EUR5.056 bln)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • February Empire State Manufacturing 7.1 (Briefing.com consensus 7.1); Prior 7.7
  • February NAHB Housing Market Index 36 (Briefing.com consensus 38); Prior 37

US Homebuilder Sentiment Weakens to 5-Month Low
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index eased to 36 in February of 2026 from 37 in the previous month, contrasting slightly with market expectations that it would improve to 38. It was the softest reading in five months, reflecting continued challenges in the US housing market. Builder sentiment deteriorated across most components of the index, with sales expectations in the next six months dropping by three points to 46, while the traffic of positive buyers dropped two points to 22. In turn, current sales conditions remained unchanged 41. Th survey reported that 36% of builders cut prices in the period, 4 percentage points below the ratio in January.

NY Manufacturing Activity Extends Expansion
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.1 in February 2026 from 7.7 in January, compared to forecasts of 7. Still, the reading showed that manufacturing activity continued to expand modestly in New York State and firms remained optimistic that conditions would continue to improve, with employment expected to grow. New orders increased (5.8 vs 6.6), while shipments held steady (-1 vs 16.3). Unfilled orders rose (9.1 vs -8.2) and delivery times were slightly longer (4 vs 0). Inventories increased somewhat (7.1 vs -2.1), while supply availability held steady (-1 vs -4.1). Employment (4 vs -9) and the average workweek (2.1 vs -5.4) increased slightly after falling last month. The pace of input price increases (49.1 vs 42.8) and selling price increases (22.2 vs 14.4) picked up. Capital spending plans strengthened (18.2 vs 10.3).

US Private Hiring Momentum Accelerates
US private employers added an average of 10,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending January 31, 2026, up from 7,750 in the previous period, according to ADP Research. The latest data mark a third consecutive week of strengthening job gains and the fastest pace since late November, signaling a renewed acceleration in hiring momentum.

  • President Trump told reporters that regime change will be the best thing to happen to Iran, according to NY Times
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassured Europe that U.S. will not leave NATO, according to FT
  • The U.S. military is preparing for Iran operations that could last weeks if President Trump orders an attack. U.S. and Iran will hold diplomatic talks today, according to Reuters
  • Portions of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for several hours today as Iran conducts military drills, according to Bloomberg
  • Iran says aircraft, energy, and mining deals are on the table as U.S. talks continue, according to Reuters
  • DHS enters shutdown as talks continue, NBC News
  • The White House is considering forcing data center builders to absorb utility costs, according to CNBC
  • President Trump says that Board of Peace member states will pledge $5 billion for Gaza reconstruction efforts
  • HHS Secretary RFK Jr. in an interview, says ultra-processed foods are to blame for America’s obesity problem, 60 Minutes
  • NYC’s projected $12 billion budget deficit could threaten Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s ambitions, according to WSJ
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Janice Charette has been appointed as the next Chief Trade Negotiator to the United States
  • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives speech on regulation
  • The Trump administration will release Gateway Tunnel funding, according to NY Times
  • Germany getting close to child social media ban, according to Bloomberg

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • Allegion (ALLE) misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • APi Group (APG) sees FY25 revs comfortably above midpoint of guidance
  • BHP Group (BHP) reports half year results
  • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) misses by $0.13, misses on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Ceva (CEVA) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Ceva (CEVA) sees Q1 and FY26 revs below consensus (guidance taken from conference call)
  • Coca-Cola (CCEP) European Partners reported Q4 results and announced further share buyback program of €1 bln over the course of the year
  • Cogent Biosciences (COGT) reports recent business highlights and fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results
  • Conagra (CAG) reaffirms FY26 guidance ahead of CAGNY Presentation
  • Donnelley Financial (DFIN) beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line
  • DTE Energy (DTE) beats by $0.12; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (ECC) announces fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results, common stock repurchase program and second quarter 2026 common and preferred distributions
  • eToro Group Ltd (ETOR) beats by $0.10; authorizes $100 mln increase to share repurchase program
  • Exact Sciences (EXAS) misses by $0.34, beats on revs; note: co previously announced it’s being acquired
  • Fluor (FLR) misses by $0.01, misses on revs
  • Franklin Electric (FELE) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Gemini Space Station (GEMI) guides FY25 revenue in line 
  • General Mills (GIS) lowers FY26 guidance ahead of Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference
  • Genuine Parts (GPC) misses by $0.26, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; increases dividend; announces spinoff
  • Global Business Travel Group (GBTG)  sees Q4 revs above consensus; sees FY26 revs in line
  • Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) reports Q3 results
  • IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) beats by $0.01, beats on revs
  • Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) reports FY25 results; reports FY25 EPS of GBP 501 pence vs. GBP 503 pence FactSet consensus; revs +7% yr/yr to GBP 2.468 bln
  • Inventiva (IVA) reports FY25 results
  • Itron (ITRI) beats by $0.27, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Kite Realty Group (KRG) reports fourth quarter and full year 2025 operating results and provides 2026 guidance
  • Knife River Corp. (KNF) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Krystal Biotech (KRYS) beats by $0.13, beats on revs
  • Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH) beats by $0.13, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus
  • Leidos (LDOS) beats by $0.15, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • LGI Homes (LGIH) beats by $0.01, misses on revs; Sees 2026 home closings of 4,600-5,400
  • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) beats by $0.04, misses on revs
  • Medtronic (MDT) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • National Energy Services Reunited (NESR) beats by $0.07, beats on revs
  • NeoGenomics (NEO) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • NeoVolta (NEOV) Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results and Provides Strategic Update on Transformation to Integrated Energy Solutions Platform
  • Otter Tail Power (OTTR) misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line
  • Portland Gen Elec (POR) reports Q4 (Dec) results; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Richtech Robotics (RR) issues shareholder letter
  • SEALSQ (LAES) announces FY 2025 key preliminary / unaudited financials metrics: reports 66% year over year revenue growth to $18 million
  • Seanergy Maritime (SHIP) reports strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results
  • Shutterstock (SSTK) beats by $0.14, misses on revs
  • Sonoco (SON) provides investors with strategy and financial update
  • Sonoco Products (SON) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Sunoco LP (SUN) reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs
  • Valmont (VMI) misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) misses by $0.41, misses on revs
  • Watsco (WSO) misses by $0.20, misses on revs; Boosts annual dividend 10% to $13.20/share
  • Waystar Holding Corp. (WAY) misses by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) tops 2025 output guidance; guides 860k–940k GEOs in 2026, targets 1.2 mln by 2030
  • Woodside Energy Group (WDS) reports 1.88 bln boe 1P reserves at year-end 2025; 2P at 3.0 bln boe

2026 FEB 18

Pre-Market: ADI BLCO CAMT CRL CNK CLH CSTM DAN NPO EQX FVRR FDP GRMN GPN GLBE DINO PODD JLL LCII MFA MCO OGE OSW OPLN PRG PUMP SEDG SAH TECK TX COCO TNL VRSK WING

After-Hours: AGI AWR AWK AMPL CAR BTG OTF BKNG CVNA CF CAKE CWAN CDE CYH CRH CVI DASH EIX FIG LOPE HLF HST INVH JACK JXN KALU KGC MAC MCW TAP NDSN NTR OXY OII OMC OGS PAAS RDN RS RELY RGLD TNK TS TROX WES WH

THE WEEK AHEAD

WEEK 08: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16 to FEBRUARY 20

According to the PTSD*, Week 08 has FOUR trading days and is the third trading week in February 2026. Monday FEB16 is a Market Holiday. Seasonally, PTSD marks the week as flat, with higher-than-normal records of large downside moves if it does go bearish. February is the weakest of the year’s 6 bullish months.
We also need to keep in mind that, with the current POTUS, seasonals can go out of whack very easily.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices for 2026 FEBRUARY 18 of Week 08 over a 21-year average are:

  • Dow Jones (DJIA): Mildly Bullish 61.9%
  • S&P 500 (SPX): Mildly Bullish 52.4%
  • NASDAQ (COMP): Slightly Bearish 42.9%
  • *Russells 2000 (RUT): Slightly Bearish 47.6%

*The RUT is not listed in the STA; several penguins with a slide ruler calculated the 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs  for 2026 FEBRUARY 18 of Week 08 over a 15-year average are:

  • DIA – (15yr Avg):  Mildly Bullish 53.3%
  • SPY – (15yr Avg): Mildly Bearish 40.0%
  • QQQ – (15yr Avg): Mildly Bearish 40.0%
  • RUT – (15yr Avg): Mildly Bearish 46.7%

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -0.3%)
  • 8:30 ET: December Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.320 mln; October 1.246 mln) and December Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.412 mln; October 1.330 mln), December Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus -2.6%; prior 5.3%) and Orders ex-transportation (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.5%)
  • 9:15 ET: January Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 76.5%; prior 76.3%)
  • 14:00 ET: January FOMC Minutes
  • 16:00 ET: December Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $220.2 bln)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

I left the positions unchanged. Monitored the markets when it opened and went to bed.

The SPY formed another (somewhat of a) Doji, with implications of upward action, but it is not convincing. As of last night, the SPX is flat YTD, and the NASDAQ is negative. A great way to start Expiration Week for February.

There is talk of war, and the current POTUS has slowed his trade and deal rhetoric. Perhaps the nation is going back to basics.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)