A Penguin's Perspective

This is a cheese-loving, macroeconomic, pattern-trading penguin’s perspective of the markets and more.

Daily Market Analysis – 20260213

DMA of 2026 FEBRUARY 13 FRIDAY AMC.

Stocks had a choppy session that culminated in considerable late afternoon selling pressure, sending the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (+0.1%) to a mixed finish. The S&P 500 was unable to reclaim its 50-day moving average (6,894.75), which it closed below yesterday.  While the broader market traded higher for most of the session, the major averages moved in tandem with fluctuations across mega-cap and tech names. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (-0.5%) had a particularly volatile session. The sector spent much of the morning oscillating around its unchanged level before plotting a steady advance through the midday hours. 

Software names finally saw some relief, with the iShares GS Software ETF (IGV) finishing 2.2% higher.  Applied Materials (AMAT 354.91, +26.52, +8.08%) and Arista Networks (ANET 141.59, +6.47, +4.79%) also contributed solid gains after their earnings reports.  However, increasing pressure across some of the sector’s largest components ultimately led it to a lower finish. NVIDIA (NVDA 182.78, -4.16, -2.23%) and Apple (AAPL 255.78, -5.95, -2.27%) were especially weak, with the losses overshadowing broad gains throughout the sector.  The communication services sector (-0.8%) finished with the widest loss today as Meta Platforms (META 639.77, -10.04, -1.55%) and Alphabet (GOOG 306.02, -3.35, -1.08%) added to the pressure across mega-caps The consumer discretionary sector (-0.1%) also logged a lower finish as Amazon (AMZN 198.79, -0.81, -0.41%) has yet to notch a gain since its earnings release last week. 

Ultimately, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.6% lower, which contributed to the underperformance of the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.1%) relative to the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index (+1.0%).  Despite the persistent weakness in some of the markets’ weightiest names, there were some solid performances across other sectors. 

The defensive utilities sector (+2.7%) surged higher as more defensive pockets continue to generate rotational interest amid the weakness in tech. All 31 of the sector’s components finished higher.  The health care sector (+1.0%) also notched a solid gain, while certain cyclical sectors, including the materials (+1.1%) and industrials (+0.8%) sectors, rebounded from a sharp slide yesterday.  Meanwhile, rate-sensitive pockets of the market also outperformed today following a solid CPI report for January, which showed a cooler-than-expected increase at the headline level (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) that resulted in a deceleration in the year-over-year rate to 2.4% from 2.7%. Core CPI (0.3%) matched expectations, with the year-over-year growth rate decelerating to 2.5% from 2.6%.

The real estate sector (+1.5%) logged a solid gain, finishing as one of the top-performing S&P 500 sectors this week.  The smaller-cap Russell 2000 (+1.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.8%) also outperformed, further distancing themselves from the major averages this year.  Ultimately, the session underscored the market’s ongoing bifurcation, with late-day pressure in mega-cap growth offset by sustained rotational strength elsewhere. Until leadership broadens meaningfully beyond the largest tech names, the major averages may continue to struggle for decisive upside traction. U.S. Treasuries enjoyed a strong finish to the week, sending yields on the 5-year note and longer tenors to their lowest closing levels since early December, while the 2-year yield settled at its lowest level since September 2022, though it remained above its 2025 intraday low that was notched on October 17 (3.378%). The 2-year note yield settled down six basis points to 3.41% (-9 basis points this week) and the 10-year note yield settled down five basis points to 4.06% (-15 basis points this week).

Bond and equity markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +7.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +6.6% YTD
  • DJIA: +3.0% YTD
  • S&P 500: -0.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -3.0% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 49501 (+0.10%). 
  • Nasdaq closed lower at 22547 (-0.22%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6836 (+0.05%). 
  • Action came on higher than average volume for NYSE but lower for Nasdaq (NYSE 1,332 mln vs avg. of 1,296 mln; NASDAQ 8,061 mln vs avg. of 8,666 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (882 mln/438 mln) and Nasdaq (5517 mln/2518 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 2007/739; NASDAQ 3161/1654)
  • Mixed new 52-week/lows (NYSE 192/49, NASDAQ 137/195).

CURRENCIES

The dollar index held steady around 97 on Friday, moving sideways for a fourth straight session after softer inflation data reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The annual headline inflation rate slowed to 2.4% last month, down from 2.6% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, inflation eased to 0.2%, compared with expectations that it would remain steady at 0.3%. Markets are pricing the Federal Reserve to hold rates in March before delivering two 25-basis-point cuts later this year. Recent data showed US payrolls rose by the most in more than a year and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, signaling a stabilising labor market. Over the week, the dollar is set to decline more than 2% against the yen, following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win and fresh verbal interventions from Tokyo. The Australian dollar also posted strong gains amid hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.1867
  • GBP/USD: +0.2% to 1.3645
  • USD/CNH: +0.1% to 6.9015
  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 152.78

Euro Remains Supported by Policy Outlook
The euro traded near the $1.19 level, on track for a modest 0.4% weekly gain against the US dollar and remaining close to the four-year high above $1.20 reached in late January. The single currency has been supported by indications that the ECB is largely untroubled by its recent appreciation, alongside mixed economic signals from the US. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the euro area’s inflation outlook is in a “good place,” while warning against overreacting to short-term or volatile data releases. The currency also drew support from reports that Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, considered a dovish policymaker, will step down in June, well ahead of the scheduled end of his term in October 2027. In the US, inflation slowed more than expected to 2.4% in January, while the economy added 130,000 jobs, surpassing forecasts. The combination of softer price pressures and resilient employment suggests the Fed may have room to ease interest rates.

Russian Ruble Eases from 3-Year High
The Russian ruble hovered around the 77 per USD mark, softening slightly from the near-three-year high of 75.5 from late February as increasing concerns to growth weighed against support from capital controls and the low influx of foreign currency to the Russian financial system. The Russian GDP expanded 1% in 2025, well below averages since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, prompting the Bank of Russia to unexpectedly extend its rate-cutting cycle. Still, mounting sanctions against the Russian central bank and key businesses prevented domestic market players from transact in hard currency, driving their fixes by the CBR to surge through the year. This was exemplified by the 96% plunge in ruble pair trading compared to before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, the plunging energy revenues that are key for Russia’s budget drove the CBR and Finance Ministry to sell gold and yuan in the National Welfare Fund to finance government operations, also supporting the currency.

Offshore Yuan Slips, Still Poised for Weekly Gain
The offshore yuan slipped to around 6.90 per dollar on Friday, snapping a sixth straight day of gains and retreating from a 33-month high reached in the previous session, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected daily fixing. The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s midpoint rate at 6.9398 per dollar, 350 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate. The latest move signaled an effort to temper the currency’s recent appreciation, with policymakers remaining cautious about allowing the yuan to strengthen too quickly, as seasonal demand typically boosts the currency ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. On the geopolitical front, the US has reportedly paused several major tech-security measures targeting China ahead of a planned April meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, easing some pressure on markets. Despite Friday’s pullback, the offshore yuan remains on course for a second straight weekly gain, marking its strongest weekly performance since May 2023.

Bitcoin Sinks on Crypto Market Pullback
Bitcoin fell to around $66,000 on Friday, giving up most of its recent gains as cryptocurrencies came under renewed pressure. The decline followed warnings from Standard Chartered about further Bitcoin weakness, alongside disappointing results from US crypto exchange Coinbase. Bitcoin has dropped more than 45% from its October peak above $126,000, and repeated failed rebounds indicate waning speculative demand. Coinbase reported a $667 million loss in the fourth quarter, with revenue down over 20% to $1.8 billion, underscoring the impact of falling token prices on trading activity. Analysts caution that while Bitcoin could recover, a sustained breach below $60,000–$58,000 may trigger deeper losses toward the high $40,000s. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is down 23.9%, reflecting broader weakness in the tech sector.

Thai Baht Nears Four-Year Peak
The Thai baht traded around 31 per dollar in mid-February, hovering near its highest level since March 2021, as market sentiment was bolstered by the Bhumjaithai Party’s election victory. Investors see Anutin’s decisive win as potentially ending Thailand’s prolonged period of fragile coalition governments, which had weighed on economic growth and caused local markets to lag regional peers. The party has pledged to streamline regulations to attract foreign investment, maintain targeted consumer subsidies, and uphold fiscal discipline by narrowing the budget deficit. The result also lifted prospects for political stability, after the country experienced three prime ministers in as many years. In the three days following the election, the baht outperformed other regional currencies, supported in part by gold’s rise this year, a key factor in Thailand, where strong household holdings give the metal significant influence on local assets.

COMMODITIES

Commodities

  • Crude Oil -0.03 @ 62.85
  • Nat Gas +0.01 @ 3.24
  • Gold +94.80 @ 5044.10
  • Silver +2.12 @ 77.95
  • Copper +0.01 @ 5.80

Silver Rebounds Sharply After Inflation Data
Silver surged more than 3% to above $77.5 per ounce on Friday, clawing back part of Thursday’s sharp selloff after softer-than-expected US inflation, though it remained on track for a third straight weekly decline. The prior drop stemmed from broad cross-asset liquidation, as investors sold precious metals alongside equities and cryptocurrencies to raise cash. Data showed annual inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, below forecasts, while core inflation eased to 2.5%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this year despite strong jobs figures earlier in the week that had pushed the first move toward midyear. The US 10-year yield retreated toward December lows and the dollar weakened after the release, offering near-term support. Still, lingering market volatility and policy uncertainty may limit gains, even as debasement concerns and prospective monetary easing underpin structural demand.

Gold Pares Weekly Losses
Gold rose toward $5,030 per ounce on Friday, extending its rebound and paring weekly losses after Thursday’s more than 3% slide, as softer-than-expected US inflation eased pressure on Treasury yields and weighed on the dollar. The prior drop came amid a broad cross-asset selloff that forced investors to liquidate precious metals to raise cash, with simultaneous declines in equities and cryptocurrencies underscoring a wider risk-off move. Data showed annual inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, below forecasts, while core inflation eased to 2.5%, reinforcing dovish arguments at the Federal Reserve after strong jobs data had pushed rate-cut expectations toward July. Yields edged lower and the dollar weakened following the release, offering near-term support to bullion. Despite recent volatility, continued central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and persistent concerns over currency debasement and rising sovereign debt burdens continue to underpin structural demand.

Aluminum Falls on Likely US Tariff Slash
Aluminum futures in the UK fell to $3,050 per tonne, maintaining the pullback since the three-year high of $3,270 on January 28th, following reports that the US is due to reduce their tariffs on the metal. The Trump administration was planning to scale back tariffs on aluminum that were doubled to 50% last year, to address sticky inflation in for manufacturers. The move was due to improve the flow of metal into the US in the near term, prompting traders to sell metal from LME warehouses. Still, aluminum remained higher on the year amid risks to supply. Output in China is expected to stall after the major producer hit its output cap of 45 million tons last year. Moves by Chinese smelters to build new alternative plants in Indonesia continued to face troubles amid higher energy costs and local regulations risks. Meanwhile, high energy costs, equipment failure, and difficulty in sourcing bauxite, suspended key smelters in other countries including Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia.

Copper Remains Volatile
Copper climbed back above $5.8 per pound on Friday after losing 3% in the previous session, as investors continued to grapple with heightened volatility in metals and broader financial markets. Thursday’s decline lacked a clear catalyst, though simultaneous losses in equities and cryptocurrencies point to forced liquidations, likely amplified by algorithmic trading. Attention is now turning to the upcoming US inflation report, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Copper also faces pressure from anticipated weaker near-term demand in China, the world’s largest consumer, as economic activity slows ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Nonetheless, ongoing supply disruptions and robust global demand, driven by the energy transition and continued expansion of AI-powered data centers, continue to underpin prices.

Baltic Dry Index Halts 2-Day Advance
Commodity
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, snapped a two-day winning streak on Friday, falling about 0.6% to 2,083 points, pressured by the bigger-size segment. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, decreased by 1.9% to 3,181 points. Meanwhile, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, went up 0.6% to 1,777 points; and the supramax index advanced 1.8% to 1,186 points. For the week, the benchmark index was up about 8.3%.

Palm Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Losses
Commodity
Malaysian palm oil futures dropped below MYR 4,010 per tonne on Friday, extending losses for a fourth straight session and reaching a four-week low, dragged down by weakness in edible oil benchmarks on Dalian and Chicago markets. Lower export estimates also weighed on sentiment, with cargo surveyors reporting Malaysian shipments for February 1–10 fell between 10.5%–14.3% mom. The contract is set for a second weekly decline, off about 3.5% so far, as concerns over weak demand from key buyer China persisted after soft January CPI data, which came ahead of the Spring Festival. Prices also faced pressure from Indonesia’s pause on a higher biodiesel mandate, alongside expectations of stronger output in coming months. Still, the downside was cushioned by robust demand from top buyer India, with January imports surging 51% mom to a four-month high following a sharp drop in December. Meanwhile, Malaysia raised its March crude palm oil reference price, keeping the export duty unchanged at 9%.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a lower note.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: -1.2%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.7%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: -1.3%,
  • India’s Sensex: -1.3%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: -0.3%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.5%.

In news:

  • There was growing speculation that President Trump will extend the current trade terms with China when he meets with President Xi in April.
  • There were also reports that tariffs on metals and aluminum goods could be reduced.
  • On a somewhat related note, officials from the U.S. and Taiwan formalized a trade deal.
  • An adviser to Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi said that the Bank of Japan may forego a rate hike in March but is likely to raise rates later in the year.

In economic data:

  • China’s January New Loans CNY4.71 trln (expected CNY5.00 trln; last CNY910 bln), January Outstanding Loan Growth 6.1% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 6.4%), and January total social financing CNY7.22 trln (expected CNY7.05 trln; last CNY2.21 trln). January House Prices -3.1% yr/yr (last -2.7%)
  • South Korea’s January Import Price Index -1.2% yr/yr (last 0.5%) and Export Price Index 7.8% yr/yr (last 5.0%)
  • New Zealand’s January Business PMI 55.2 (last 56.1). December External Migration & Visitors 7.0% yr/yr (last 8.2%). Q1 Inflation Expectations 2.4% (last 2.3%)

Major European indices trade mostly on a lower note.

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%,
  • Germany’s DAX: +0.1%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.1%,
  • France’s CAC 40: -0.4%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.7%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.0%.

In news:

  • Military contractor Safran reported in-line results while L’Oreal missed growth expectations.
  • European Central Bank policymaker Kazaks said that the ECB is in a good position regarding rates while policymaker Nagel said that geopolitical “rivalries” could result in higher inflation.

In economic data:

  • Eurozone’s Q4 GDP 0.3% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.3%); 1.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.4%). Q4 Employment Change 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected 0.1%; last 0.2%); 0.7% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%). December trade surplus EUR12.6 bln (expected EUR11.8 bln; last EUR9.3 bln)
  • Germany’s January WPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.2%); 1.2% yr/yr (last 1.2%)
  • Spain’s January CPI -0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.9%). January Core CPI 2.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.6%)
  • Swiss January CPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.0%); 0.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.1%)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • January CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%, January Core CPI 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it showed some encouraging disinflation on a year-over-year basis, which the market will perceive as an opening for the Fed to consider additional rate cuts even with GDP growth running above potential.

US Monthly Inflation Slows in January
US consumer prices increased by 0.2% month-over-month in January 2026, easing from December’s pace and coming in below expectations for a 0.3% rise. Shelter costs climbed 0.2%, while food prices also rose 0.2%, with the index for food at home matching that increase and food away from home edging up 0.1%. Additional upward pressure came from higher airline fares, as well as gains in personal care, recreation, medical care, and communication services. These increases were partly offset by a 1.5% drop in energy prices. Declines were also recorded in used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance, helping to moderate the overall monthly advance.

US Core Inflation Rate Lowest Since 2021
The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, edged down to 2.5% in January 2026, the lowest since March 2021, from 2.6% in the prior month. Figures came in line with market forecasts. The heavyweight shelter index increased 3%, down from December’s 3.2%. Other indexes registered slower price- growth including recreation (2.5% vs 3%) and household furnishings and operations (3.9% vs 4%). Medical care inflation was unchanged at 3.2%, whereas personal care accelerated to 5.4% from 3.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.3%, picking up from the 0.2% increase in the previous month and in line with market expectations.

US Core CPI Rises as Expected
Core consumer prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in January of 2026, picking up from the 0.2% increase in the previous month and in line with market expectations. It was the sharpest increase since August of the previous year, with two reports being suspended since then due to the federal government shutdown. Prices rose sharply for transportation services (1.4% vs 0.4% in December 2025). In turn, inflation slowed for shelter (0.2% vs 0.4%), while deflation picked up for used cars and trucks (-1.8% vs -0.9%).

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. Price pressures eased notably in the energy sector, with prices falling 0.1%, after a 2.3% rise in December, led by gasoline (-7.5% vs -3.4%) and fuel oil (-4.2% vs 7.4%). Prices of natural also rose at a slightly slower pace (9.8% vs 10.8%). A decline was also seen in prices for used cars and trucks (-2% vs 1.6%) while inflation slowed for food (3.1% vs 2.9%) and shelter (3% vs 3.2%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, below 0.3% in December and forecasts of 0.3%. Annual core inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021, compared with 2.6% in the prior month and in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased by 0.3%, slightly above 0.2% in December.

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • 10x Genomics (TXG) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Advance Auto (AAP) beats by $0.44, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
  • Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) beats by $0.04, beats on revs
  • Airbnb (ABNB) misses by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus, Expects FY26 yr/yr growth to accelerate to at least low-double-digits
  • Air Lease (AL) beats by $0.24, reports revs in-line
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) beats by $0.17, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; believes global semiconductor industry can reach $1 trillion in 2026, several years ahead of prior predictions
  • Arista Networks (ANET) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus
  • Artivion (AORT) beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • Bio-Rad Labs (BIO) misses by $0.20, reports revs in-line
  • Bright Horizons (BFAM) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • CAE (CAE) beats by CAD 0.04; revs in line
  • Callaway Golf Company (CALY) beats by $0.17; guides Q1 revs in-line; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Cameco (CCJ) beats by $0.49, beats on revs
  • CBL Properties (CBL) Reports Outstanding Results for Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025
  • Citius Oncology, Inc. (CTOR) announces first reported revenue following successful launch of LYMPHIR
  • Cohu (COHU) misses by $0.21, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs in-line
  • Coinbase Global (COIN) misses by $3.49, misses on revs
  • Colliers (CIGI) misses by $0.11, reports revs in-line; Expects to deliver mid-teens growth in revenues, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS during 2026
  • Corsair Gaming (CRSR) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; Authorizes a $50 mln stock repurchase program
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) misses by $0.21, misses on revs
  • Dauch (DCH) reports Q4 results and provides FY26 guidance
  • Dexcom (DXCM) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • DraftKings (DKNG) beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Dutch Bros (BROS) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; systemwide comps +7.7%; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Electrovaya (ELVA) beats by $0.01; misses on revs; provides FY26 revenue guidance
  • Enbridge (ENB) beats by C$0.10; Reaffirms FY26 adjusted EBTIDA, DCF guidance, Increases 2026 quarterly dividend by 3% to C$0.97/share
  • Essent Group (ESNT) misses by $0.12, reports revs in-line
  • Eversource Energy (ES) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, announces 5-year investment plan and financing activity
  • Expedia Group (EXPE) beats by $0.43, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs in-line; raising dividend by 20%
  • Federal Realty (FRT) misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides midpoint of FY26 FFO above consensus
  • Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) sees Q4 revs above consensus
  • Flowers Foods (FLO) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; conducting a comprehensive review of operations
  • Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) misses by $0.13, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
  • Healthcare Realty (HR) reports FFO in-line, revs in-line; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Hecla Mining (HL) reports exploration results and mineral reserves & resources
  • Ingersoll-Rand (IR) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Instacart (CART) misses by $0.21, beats on revs, GTV increased 14% yr/yr; Issues Q1 guidance
  • JFrog (FROG) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides midpoint of Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS midpoint above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Magna (MGA) beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; raises dividend
  • Marcus & Millichap (MMI) beats by $0.01, beats on revs
  • Moderna (MRNA) beats by $0.43, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Mohawk (MHK) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus
  • NatWest Group (NWG) reports FY25 results; provides 2026 and 2028 outlooks/targets
  • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) reaffirms Q4 guidance
  • Pinterest (PINS) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus
  • Procore Technologies (PCOR) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Public Storage (PSA) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 FFO below consensus
  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; provides FY26 guidance
  • Roku (ROKU) beats by $0.25, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Ryan Specialty Group (RYAN) misses by $0.04, misses on revs; announces buyback; initiates restructuring
  • Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Sensient (SXT) misses by $0.05, misses on revs; provides outlook
  • SPS Commerce (SPSC) beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS and revs below consensus; names new CFO; increases buyback authorization by $200 mln
  • TC Energy (TRP) beats by CAD0.07; raises dividend
  • Toast (TOST) misses by $0.08, reports revs in-line; authorized an increase of $500 mln to Toast’s previously authorized share repurchase program
  • Twilio (TWLO) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Vale S.A. (VALE) reports Q4 results; beats on revenue
  • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) misses by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Ultragenyx Pharma (RARE) misses by $0.20, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Warrior Met Coal (HCC) misses by $0.06, reports revs in-line
  • Wendy’s (WEN) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) misses by $0.30, reports revs in-line
  • XP (XP) beats by $0.04, beats on revs
  • Yelp (YELP) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs below consensus; announces agreement with OpenAI

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

I closed of my hedge last night.
The SPY closed in a doji; the pre-holiday rally did not happen. It looks like a very red Chinese New Year is coming up.

Monday is a Market Holiday

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)