A Penguin's Perspective

This is a cheese-loving, macroeconomic, pattern-trading penguin’s perspective of the markets and more.

Daily Market Analysis – 20260209

DMA of 2026 FEBRUARY 09 MONDAY AMC.

Stocks had a mostly positive start to the week, albeit a somewhat uneventful one. A continuation in Friday’s leadership across mega-cap, tech, and high-beta names helped the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) notch solid gains, while broadening strength throughout the session saw the DJIA (flat) nab fresh record highs after early losses. 

The Russell 2000 (+0.7%) also captured a nice gain, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.2%) had a more subdued session. 

Early in the session, the information technology sector (+1.6%) was the only S&P 500 sector to hold a gain, which it maintained throughout the course of the day. 

Investors continued to do some bargain hunting across software names that fell under immense pressure, with AppLovin (APP 460.38, +53.66, +13.19%) and Oracle (ORCL 156.61, +13.79, +9.66%) (which was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson with a target price of $180) being among the best-performing S&P 500 names today, while Microsoft (MSFT 413.72, +12.58, +3.13%) also managed a nice gain. The iShares GS Software ETF (IGV) finished 3.2% higher. 

Chipmakers also contributed to the strength, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.4%) posting a nice gain due to solid showings from the likes of NVIDIA (NVDA 190.04, +4.63, +2.50%) and Broadcom (AVGO 343.94, +11.02, +3.31%). 

Other mega-cap stocks outside of the technology sector were also mostly higher today, helping the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+1.0%) close with a nice gain.

Meta Platforms (META 677.37, +15.91, +2.41%) was a standout, while Alphabet (GOOG 324.40, +1.30, +0.40%), which sold seven tranches of debt, including a British pound-denominated 100-year bond, also finished higher, helping the communication services sector (+0.8%) end the day near the top of the leaderboard. 

While the consumer discretionary sector’s (-0.3%) mega-caps, Tesla (TSLA 417.20, +6.10, +1.48%) and Amazon (AMZN 208.72, -1.60, -0.76%), finished mixed, Amazon ended the day significantly improved from early session lows following a sharp post-earnings retreat on Friday. 

Other cyclical sectors had mixed showings. The financials sector (-0.6%) lagged amid a tough day for insurance names.  Insurance Information reported that OpenAI has authorized the first AI application from an insurance provider on ChatGPT. Willis Towers Watson (WTW 290.09, -39.95, -12.10%) and Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG 217.74, -23.84, -9.87%) were among the worst-performing S&P 500 components, while the Dow component Travelers (TRV 292.82, -8.68, -2.88%) also finished lower. 

Meanwhile, the materials (+1.4%) and energy (+0.8%) sectors posted solid gains as oil and precious metals prices increased today. 

The defensive consumer staples (-0.9%) and health care (-0.9%) sectors were today’s laggards amid a more risk-on tone in the market today. 

Though not components of the health care sector (or S&P 500), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 19.33, -3.69, -16.03%) plummeted today after Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 49.37, +1.73, +3.63%) filed a lawsuit over its compounded versions of Wegovy and Ozempic, which coincides with a weekend FDA announcement targeting non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs.

Though the session was largely devoid of new catalysts, the stocks still managed to advance in a relatively broad fashion today. Strong performances from some of the market’s largest tech components resonated at the index level and provided confidence that Friday’s rebound effort was not a one-off event. 

Earnings results will pick up throughout the week, which will likely be a catalyst of price action. 

There was no economic data of note today, adding to the somewhat subdued corporate news flow.  

U.S. Treasuries began the week with slim gains across the curve after a steady bounce off morning lows in longer tenors. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.48%, and the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.20%. 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.7% YTD
  • Russell 200: +8.4% YTD
  • DJIA: +4.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: +1.7% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: UNCH YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 50136 (+0.04%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 23239 (+0.90%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6965 (+0.47%). 
  • Action came on higher than average volume for NYSE, but not Nasdaq (NYSE 1,298 mln vs avg. of 1,269 mln; NASDAQ 8,225 mln vs avg. of 8,517 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (720 mln/565 mln) and Nasdaq (5503 mln/2590 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 1609/1137; NASDAQ 2886/1923)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 297/63, NASDAQ 370/162).

After-Hours Action

US stock futures were little changed on Tuesday after major indexes began the week on a strong footing, with the Dow notching a fresh record high. In Monday’s cash session, the Dow edged up 0.04%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9%, marking a second consecutive day of gains across all three benchmarks. Technology stocks led the advance, extending Friday’s rebound after recent selling driven by concerns over elevated artificial intelligence spending and potential disruption to traditional software business models. Megacap tech outperformed, with Nvidia up 2.5%, Tesla 1.5%, Microsoft 3.1%, Broadcom 3.3% and Meta Platforms 2.4%. Oracle surged 9.6% following an analyst upgrade linked to stronger AI-related demand. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the delayed January employment report and upcoming CPI data, which are expected to further shape expectations around the pace of economic cooling and the timing of potential policy easing.

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ICHR +18.1%, CRDO +15.5% (guidance), RLGT +9.5%, UTL +5.8%, CMCO +5% (also withdraws guidance), CRBG +3.8%, ACM +2.6%, AMKR +1.5%, UDR +0.3% (also increases dividend)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CCO +7.3% (agrees to be acquired by Mubadala Capital for $6.2 bln), FOXF +1.4% (strategic board refresh), GLXY +0.8% (TSX approval of normal course issuer bid), CSX +0.4% ($670 mln deal with WAB to upgrade its fleet), AZTA +0.3% (strategic partnership with Frontier Space), WRBY +0.3% (names new CFO)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: UPWK -23.5%, PAL -16.6%, AMTM -11.7%, GT -10.8%, GTM -7.1%, MEDP -6.1%, ON -4.1%, PFG -2% (also increases dividend), ACGL -1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: RGNX -17.6% (FDA issues complete response letter regarding its biologics license application for RGX-121), LTM -2.9% (stock offering by selling shareholders), HGTY -2% (announces debut on Prime Video), WAB -1.2% (CSX signs $670 mln deal with co to upgrade its fleet), FONR -0.3% (to delay 10-Q filing), TROW -0.1% (increases dividend)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries began the week with slim gains across the curve after a steady bounce off morning lows in longer tenors. The trading day started with sizable losses in 10s and 30s and relative strength up front, but the entire complex staged a quick bounce, eventually lifting all tenors into positive territory. The lower start followed a weekend Lower House election in Japan, which produced the biggest post-war win for the ruling LDP. Prime Minister Takaichi is now free to implement her agenda without big roadblocks. Finance Minister Katayama said that there will be no additional bond issuance to fund the prime minister’s agenda, which was encouraging to hear. Longer tenors spent the entire session in a slow rise off their early lows while shorter tenors spent the day near lows, though they still managed a higher finish. The market did not receive any economic data today, but the New York Fed released its Survey of Consumer Expectations for January, which showed a dip in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.1% from 3.4% while three- and five-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Crude oil climbed back above $64/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.8% to 96.82.

Yields

  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 3.48%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.55%
  • 5-yr: -1 bp to 3.74%
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.20%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.85%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index held below 97 on Tuesday after losing more than 1% over the past two sessions, weighed down by concerns that foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets could soften. The decline followed reports that Chinese regulators advised financial institutions to limit their holdings of US Treasuries to reduce concentration risks and mitigate the impact of uncertain US economic policies. Meanwhile, investors turn their attention to the delayed US jobs and inflation reports this week, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett noted on Monday that US job gains may slow in coming months due to weaker labor force growth and higher productivity. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady in March, with two rate cuts priced in later this year. The dollar nursed losses across the board, with the yen standing out on fears of possible intervention from Japanese authorities following the election.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: +0.9% to 1.1920
  • GBP/USD: +0.7% to 1.3697
  • USD/CNH: -0.2% to 6.9149
  • USD/JPY: -0.9% to 155.73

Yuan Rallies as China Flags US Treasury Risk
The offshore yuan advanced 6.9 per dollar on Tuesday, nearing its highest level in thirty-four months, as momentum built after Chinese regulators urged banks to curb excessive exposure to US Treasuries. Financial institutions were advised to rein in Treasury holdings, and reduce positions where exposure is high, citing concerns over concentration risk and market volatility, a move framed as a market risk diversification effort rather than a geopolitical signal or a loss of confidence in US credit. The shift underscores a broader global move away from dollar assets and could support increased capital flows back into Chinese markets, adding a fundamental tailwind for the yuan. The report has also fueled expectations of a gradual structural shift in China’s currency strategy, especially after President Xi Jinping outlined ambitions for a “powerful currency” in state media earlier this month. Markets now await this week’s upcoming inflation data for signals on monetary policy outlook.

Yen Holds Gains on Intervention Fears
The Japanese yen held around 155.7 per dollar on Tuesday after gaining nearly 1% in the previous session, as renewed verbal intervention from Tokyo supported the currency in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in Sunday’s general election. Markets are also giving Takaichi the benefit of the doubt as she promised that her stimulus plans will not strain the country’s finances further. The ruling coalition secured a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house, giving Takaichi a solid mandate to push for increased spending and tax cuts. She reiterated her pledge to suspend the 8% sales tax on food for two years on Monday. The yen also benefited from capital inflows as Japanese equities surged to fresh all-time highs following the election, even as local bonds came under pressure amid concerns over the country’s fiscal outlook.

Euro Climbs Above $1.19
The euro advanced past $1.19, hovering near its strongest level since late January, after the European Central Bank signaled little concern over the recent appreciation of the single currency. At last week’s policy meeting, the ECB left interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed that inflation is expected to stabilize at its 2% target over the medium term. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde said the euro area’s inflation outlook remains in a “good place,” downplaying the recent rally in the euro. She cautioned, however, that incoming data could be volatile in the months ahead and should not guide policy decisions in isolation. Meanwhile, investors reacted to the announcement that Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau will step down on June 1, 2026, ahead of schedule. In the US, the dollar weakened ahead of key US jobs and CPI reports due later this week, with additional pressure coming from a stronger yen following Japan’s election outcome.

Pound Holds Near $1.36 as Political Uncertainty and Rate-Cut Bets Weigh
The British pound steadied around $1.36, remaining below the more than four-year high of $1.387 reached at the end of January, as mounting political uncertainty and shifting monetary policy expectations pressured the currency. Turmoil intensified after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, resigned over the weekend, fueling speculation about Starmer’s leadership. The Prime Minister is facing renewed calls to step down from within a restless Labour Party following controversy surrounding his appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US, a decision that has drawn scrutiny over Mandelson’s past links to Jeffrey Epstein. At the same time, growing expectations of additional Bank of England rate cuts have added to downward pressure on sterling. Although policymakers held interest rates at 3.75% in a split vote, they adopted a more dovish tone than anticipated, signaling that CPI inflation is likely to return to the 2% target from April.

Thai Baht Rises on Bhumjaithai Party Election Win
The Thai baht rose 1.3% to 31.2 per dollar on Monday, rebounding from losses last week and hitting a more than one-week high, as market sentiment improved following the Bhumjaithai Party’s decisive election victory. Thailand’s ruling conservative party, the Bhumjaithai Party, secured its first victory of the century and is set to win 191 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives, nearly triple its 2023 tally. The outcome has boosted market confidence, as a strong showing for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and likely coalition partners reduces the risk of political deadlock or instability. In addition, the latest results pave the way for policy continuity, including the continuation of the party’s social handouts and the approval of a new budget. Meanwhile, the pro-democracy People’s Party, which had led in pre-election surveys, is on track to capture 115 seats.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude oil futures hovered around $68.9 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures hovered around $64.2 per barrel on Tuesday, holding onto gains from the previous sessions amid lingering tensions between the US and Iran despite signs of progress in recent talks. On Monday, the US issued a warning to all American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The advisory came even as negotiations between the two nations are set to continue following what they described as positive talks in Oman last Friday. However, uncertainty remains over a potential breakthrough, as Iran continues to insist on maintaining uranium enrichment, a key sticking point for the US. Investors are also monitoring developments on India’s purchases of Russian crude, after the latest US trade deal with India was linked to a freeze on Russian oil imports. India is one of the largest buyers of Russian crude and any halt in purchases could significantly support oil prices.

Commodities

  • Crude Oil +0.75 @ 64.33
  • Nat Gas -0.29 @ 3.14
  • Gold +98.50 @ 5078.50
  • Silver +5.51 @ 82.40
  • Copper +0.08 @ 5.96

Copper Slips as China Demand Softens
Copper futures fell to around $5.9 per pound on Tuesday, pausing a two-day rebound amid signs of slowing demand in top consumer China ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Industrial activity in China slowed as manufacturers paused operations, while overall economic momentum softened. On the supply side, major mines continued to face challenges from power outages, prompting conservative production guidance. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association expects refined copper output to rise about 5% in 2026, roughly half the growth seen in 2025. Still, prices remain supported by strong global demand driven by the energy transition and ongoing AI-driven data-center expansion. A weaker dollar, pressured by concerns over declining foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets, also provided additional support.

Silver Pulls Back After Two-Day Rebound
Silver fell about 2% to below $82 per ounce on Tuesday, breaking a two-day advance as traders locked in profits, while volatility in the precious metals market persisted following a historic rout in recent weeks. The white metal also remains down about 33% from its all-time high reached on Jan. 29 right before a selloff that wiped out nearly 50% of its value. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributed the extreme swings in the metals market to Chinese traders, describing the recent rally as a speculative blowoff. Investors are now turning their attention to the delayed US jobs and inflation reports due this week for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady in March, with two rate cuts priced in for later in the year. Other precious metals, including gold, platinum and palladium, also slipped on Tuesday.

Gold Eases from Over 1-Week High
Gold fell below $5,030 per ounce on Tuesday as investors booked profits after prices climbed to an over one-week high in the previous session. Market attention has now shifted to key US economic releases, particularly the nonfarm payrolls report and inflation data, which could shape the Federal Reserve’s rate path. On Monday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett noted that job growth is likely to slow in the coming months due to declining population. Markets are currently pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, keeping expectations for easier monetary policy broadly supportive for bullion. Official-sector demand also remains strong, with China’s central bank extending its gold purchases for a fifteenth consecutive month in January. Additionally, geopolitical risks continue to underpin safe-haven demand. Tensions between the US and Iran persist despite signs of progress in recent talks, with Washington warning US-flagged vessels to stay away from Iranian waters.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note with Japan’s Nikkei (+3.9%) soaring to a fresh record after a snap election resulted in a supermajority for Prime Minister Takaichi’s LDP, even before factoring in the seats that were won by LDP’s coalition partner Ishin.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: +3.9%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.8%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1%,
  • India’s Sensex: +0.6%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +4.1%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +2.0%.

In news:

  • The win puts the prime minister in position to implement her economic agenda.
  • Finance Minister Katayama attempted to assuage investors by saying that there will be no additional bond issuance to fund the prime minister’s agenda.
  • Elsewhere, Thailand’s election produced a three-way deadlock that was largely expected.
  • China has resumed some rare earth exports to Japan while Australia placed a 10% tariff on steel imports from China.

In economic data:

  • Japan’s December Overall Wage Income 2.4% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 1.7%). December Current Account surplus JPY2.70 trln (expected surplus of JPY2.95 trln; last surplus of JPY3.14 trln). January Bank Lending 4.5% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.3%) and January Economy Watchers Current Index 47.8 (expected 49.1; last 47.7)

Major European indices trade on a mostly higher note while the U.K.’s FTSE (-0.2%) underperforms with financials contributing to the weakness.

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%,
  • Germany’s DAX: +0.4%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.2%,
  • France’s CAC 40: UNCH,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.2%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.5%.

In news:

  • Speculation is on the rise that British Prime Minister Starmer could be ousted after his unimpressive visit to China and growing focus on his knowledge of Lord Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
  • A weekend election in Spain resulted in a rightward shift with Prime Minister Sanchez’s Socialist party seeing its support fall to 24.5% from 29.5%.
  • In Portugal, Socialist Jose Seguro was elected president.

In economic data:

  • Eurozone’s February Sentix Investor Confidence 4.2 (expected -0.2; last -1.8)
  • Swiss Q1 SECO Consumer Climate -30, as expected (last -37)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

US Inflation Expectations Lowest in 6 Months
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US declined to 3.1% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%) and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, its lowest reading since July 2023). Meanwhile, median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. In addition, inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 41.9%.

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview, says he doesn’t expect the Fed to quickly reduce its balance sheet with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, according to Reuters
  • China is urging banks to lower exposure to U.S. treasuries, according to Bloomberg
  • The Trump administration is preparing new arms sales to Taiwan which could jeopardize President Trump’s planned visit to China in April, according to FT
  • President Trump signs executive order establishing a process to impose tariffs on countries that acquire any goods or services from Iran to protect the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Trump Wednesday to discuss Iran, according to Axios
  • White House and India issue joint statement on trade agreement; U.S. cuts reciprocal tariff to 18% from 25%; U.S. eliminates extra 25% tariff on purchases of Russian oil; India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods; India intends to purchase $500 billion of U.S. goods
  • Both sides are far apart on DHS funding talks ahead of Friday deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to vote on a continuing resolution for the department, but Democrats have little interest in that, according to The Hill
  • U.S. targets March for Ukraine peace deal, according to Reuters
  • Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party will win more than 300 seats in the House of Representatives, according to NY Times
  • Trump Administration to temporarily increase the quantity of in-quota imports of lean beef trimmings to increase the supply of ground beef for US consumers
  • China wants to beat the U.S. on humanoid robots, WSJ 
  • Republican lawmakers not supporting plan to ban institutional investors from buying single family homes, according to WSJ
  • United States and Bangladesh have agreed to an agreement on reciprocal trade

trading econ

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • Alexander’s (ALX) announces fourth quarter financial results
  • Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) reports fiscal 2026 first quarter financial results and provides business update
  • Apollo Global Management (APO) reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs
  • Becton Dickinson (BDX) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; provides FY26 guidance
  • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) reaffirms FY26 guidance; expects recent Treasury decision to impact less than 1% of FY27 revenue
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) beats by $0.19, misses on revs; provides FY26 guidance
  • CNA Financial (CNA) misses by $0.13
  • Curbline Properties (CURB) reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs
  • DRDGOLD (DRD) provides trading update; trending towards the higher end of production guidance
  • Dynatrace (DT) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) reports EPS in-line, lowers FY26 EPS below consensus
  • Expand Energy (EXE) appoints Michael Wichterich as interim CEO; reaffirms guidance
  • flyExclusive (FLYX) reports record preliminary unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, capping a transformational year with expected positive adjusted EBITDA in fourth quarter 2025
  • Kroger (KR) confirms it has named former Walmart US exec Greg Foran as CEO; co also reaffirms FY26 guidance
  • Kyndryl (KD) misses by $0.08, misses on revs; provides FY26 guidance; Harsh Chugh has been named Interim Chief Financial Officer
  • Loews Corp (L) reports Q4 results
  • Molina Healthcare (MOH) expects $93 mln impairment charge in Q1
  • Monday.com (MNDY) beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA) reports fiscal third quarter results
  • Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) Reports Continued Profitability In Third Quarter Fiscal 2026
  • Pagaya (PGY) beats by $0.46, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Sally Beauty (SBH) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; narrows FY26 EPS, reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • SOHU.COM (SOHU) reports fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 unaudited financial results
  • Universal Corporation (UVV) reports nine month and third quarter 2026 results
  • VinFast Auto (VFS) announces global delivery target of 300,000 electric vehicles for the full year 2026, reflecting its expectation of continued strong momentum in Asian markets
  • Waters (WAT) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • Workday (WDAY) announced that co-founder and current executive chair Aneel Bhusri is returning as CEO; expects Q4 guidance to be in line with prior guidance

2026 FEB 10

Pre-Market: ARMK AZN AXTA BLKB BP KO DDOG DUK DD ECL ENTG RACE FISV HOG HAS INCY INMD MAR MAS OSCR DGX SPGI SAIA SPOT TRMB VSTS WCC XIFR XYL ZBH

After-Hours: AKR AEIS ADC AIG ANGI AIZ ALAB BL LEU NET DEI DIOD EW EXEL F FRSH GILD GXO HIW HNGE NSP JHX KVYO LSCC LYFT MBC MAT MIR MNTN NMIH OI PEGA RPD RRR HOOD TDC UPST WPC WELL ZG

THE WEEK AHEAD

WEEK 07: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 09 to FEBRUARY 03

According to the PTSD*, Week 07 has FIVE trading days and is the second trading week in February 2026. Seasonally, the PTSD has the week marked as very bullish, with expectations of a pre-holiday rally on Monday, FEB 16, in week 08. February is the weakest of the year’s 6 bullish months.
We also have to keep in mind that with the current POTUS, the seasonals can go out of whack very easily.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices for 2026 FEBRUARY 10 of Week 07 over a 21-year average are:

  • Dow Jones (DJIA): 52.4%
  • S&P 500 (SPX): 57.1%
  • NASDAQ (COMP): 61.9%
  • *Russells 2000 (RUT): 71.4%

*The RUT is not listed in the STA; several penguins with a slide ruler calculated the 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs  for 2026 FEBRUARY 10 of Week 07 over a 15-year average are:

  • DIA – (15yr Avg):  73.3%
  • SPY – (15yr Avg):  66.7%
  • QQQ – (15yr Avg):  66.7%
  • RUT – (15yr Avg):  60.0%

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 6:00 ET: January NFIB Small Business Optimism (prior 99.5)
  • 8:30 ET: Q3 Employment Cost Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%; prior 0.8%), December Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.6%), Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%), and December Import/Export Prices
  • 10:00 ET: November Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%) and November Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior -1.3%)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

While the VIX has lowered itself down into the eighteens, the WMO had a sharp increase in the Put/Call Ratios for the ETFs. I am cautiously bullish for the time being.

On the home front, Call wing of my IC is not in a loss, while the Put wing has zeroed itself out. With this, I added a simple long call into the mix to hedge the Call Wing. Hedging the hedge with a hedge is comically logical.
The plan for the long call is to be very short-term.

Happy Hunting, my Penguin Friends.

Happy Hunting.

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)