A Penguin's Perspective

This is a cheese-loving, macroeconomic, pattern-trading penguin’s perspective of the markets and more.

Daily Market Analysis – 20251222

DMA of 2025 DECEMBER 22 MONDAY AMC.

The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (+0.5%) spent the first session of the Christmas week trading in a stable range, capturing decent gains on broad strength. The Russell 2000 (+1.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.9%) notched even wider gains. 

Ten S&P 500 sectors finished higher, with four advancing 1.0% or further. 

The materials sector (+1.4%) captured the widest gain as silver and gold both set fresh record highs today, with Newmont Corporation (NEM 104.88, +3.59, +3.54%) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 50.64, +1.49, +3.03%) outperforming as a result. 

Oil prices were also higher today, amid reports that the U.S. is pursuing a third sanctioned tanker off the coast of Venezuela. Crude oil futures settled today’s session $1.50 higher (+2.7%) at $58.03 per barrel, keeping the energy sector (+1.1%) near the top of today’s leaderboard. 

Elsewhere the financials sector (+1.3%) was supported by solid gains in its investment manager and major banking names, while aerospace and defense stocks boosted the industrials sector (+1.1%). 

While the information technology sector (+0.4%) was not one of the day’s top performers, its modest gain highlights some lingering enthusiasm around the AI trade. Strength in chipmakers saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index close 1.1% higher. NVIDIA (NVDA 183.69, +2.70, +1.49%) provided solid leadership, with Reuters reporting that the company looks to begin H200 shipments to China by mid-February. Additionally, Micron (MU 276.59, +10.67, +4.01%) extended its post-earnings run, and First Solar (FSLR 284.59, +17.61, +6.60%) was the top-performing S&P 500 name.

Only the defensive consumer staples sector (-0.4%), which was a laggard last week amid renewed optimism in the AI trade, finished lower. 

In corporate news, Paramount Skydance (PSKY 13.61, +0.56, +4.29%) once again garnered a fair share of coverage today in its takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 28.75, +0.98, +3.53%). Paramount amended its $30 per share all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to include an irrevocable personal guarantee of $40.4 billion of the equity financing from Larry Ellison.

There was no economic data of note, and Fed commentary had a minimal impact on the market’s rate-cut expectations for 2026. Fed Governor Stephen Miran (voting FOMC member) told Bloomberg that more rate cuts are needed to avoid risks of a recession, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (voting FOMC member in 2026) said interest rates should remain unchanged for several months. 

All told, today’s session progressed in a relatively uneventful manner, which is unsurprising given the holiday week. Though gains were not as wide as the tech-fueled rally of last Thursday and Friday, the major averages still advanced on broad strength, lifting the S&P 500 to the doorstep of another record high. 

U.S. Treasuries began the Christmas week on a modestly lower note, with shorter tenors leading a quiet Monday dip as today’s $69 billion 2-year note auction was met with weak demand. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.51%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.17%. 

Pervical is taking a break.
Minimal Market Data will be posted.
— Automation Penguin


BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • Nasdaq Composite: +21.3% YTD
  • S&P 500 : +17.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +14.7% YTD
  • DJIA: +13.7% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.3% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 48363 (+0.47%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 23429 (+0.52%).
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6878 (+0.64%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,134 mln vs avg. of 1,282 mln; NASDAQ 7,313 mln vs avg. of 9,749 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (826 mln/294 mln) and Nasdaq (4941 mln/2268 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 1738/1016; NASDAQ 2967/1835)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 143/39, NASDAQ 196/152).

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.


COMMENTARY

The major indices gaped up a bit, and kinda stayed there – this is not the expected start of the Christmas Rally – If there is a Christmas Rally. Heck, given how things are, will there even be a Christmas in the Markets?


Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends


(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, forexfactory.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, finviz.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)