A Penguin's Perspective

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Daily Market Analysis – 20251015

DMA of 2025 OCTOBER 15 WEDNESDAY AMC.

US stocks closed a volatile session mostly higher on Wednesday, despite ongoing US-China trade tensions and a lingering government shutdown. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, lifted by strong earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, which buoyed the financial sector. Morgan Stanley shares hit a record high, rising 4.7%, while Bank of America advanced 4.4% after both banks exceeded third-quarter profit expectations on robust dealmaking. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%, supported by a 3% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index following better-than-expected orders and operating income from ASML, reflecting strong AI demand. The Dow finished marginally lower as volatility remained elevated and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing continued, including new port fees and threatened tariffs. Mixed earnings results elsewhere contributed to market swings, with Progressive (-5.8%) and Abbott (-2.4%) posting disappointing quarters, contrasting with gains in banking and grain trading.

The stock market opened to broad-based gains in response to optimism around trade tensions with China, though sector strength deteriorated throughout the day, with the major averages ultimately finishing well off their session highs. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) finished with the widest gains as tech and mega-cap stocks put up strong performances, while the S&P 500 (+0.4%) also captured a modest gain, and the DJIA finished flat. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.0%) outperformed, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) had a flattish performance.

All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher for much of the morning after Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested in a press conference that a longer trade truce could be achieved if China delays implementing its restrictions on rare earth exports.

The early gains pushed the major averages back near their record-high levels from last week, though eroding strength saw them dip beneath their flatlines in the early afternoon. 

Although the information technology sector (+0.7%) gave back around half of its early gains, its strength remained key to today’s index-level advance, especially after its weakness yesterday limited growth in the major averages despite broader market strength.

The sector was supported by strength in chipmakers after chip-making equipment manufacturer ASML (ASML 1009.81, +26.63, +2.71%) reported strong bookings in its Q3 earnings report this morning. 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 238.60, +20.51, +9.40%) was one of the top-performing names in the S&P 500 today, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index closed with a 3.0% gain. 

The communication services sector (+1.0%) also finished higher, as, like chipmakers, several mega-cap names shook off yesterday’s retreat. Alphabet (GOOG 251.71, +5.52, +2.24%) and Meta Platforms (META 717.55, +8.90, +1.26%) were among the stocks that pushed the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.6%) higher, though fading strength in the market’s largest names throughout the session saw the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.2%) close just slightly lower than the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.4%).

The real estate (+1.5%) and utilities (+1.3%) sectors continued their run of outperformance this week. 

While four S&P 500 sectors ultimately closed lower, only the materials (-0.5%) and industrials (-0.5%) sectors retreated more than 0.1%. 

The industrials sector faced pressure in its defense names after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the Trump administration may ask defense contractors to scale back stock buybacks in favor of increased research and development spending to support national security.

The iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF retreated 1.5%. 

On the earnings front, the market faced a busy slate of reports, and mixed reactions to several names in the financials sector (-0.1%) left the sector hovering near its flatline by the close. 

Morgan Stanley (MS 162.65, +7.31, +4.71%) and Bank of America (BAC 52.28, +2.19, +4.37%) captured solid gains in response to their earnings beats, while PNC (PNC 182.34, -7.39, -3.90%) faced pressure due to downside guidance and Progressive (PGR 226.50, -13.90, -5.78%) slipped on an earnings miss. 

Macro developments were relatively thin today, though the market remains vulnerable to volatility in response to trade tensions with China. 

The Fed’s October Beige Book showed that overall economic activity was little changed from the previous period, which in turn had little effect on the major averages. 

Rate cut expectations remain high, and the government remains shut down, leaving investors focused mostly on corporate earnings and trade headlines for direction. Despite the retreat from earlier highs, the market’s resilience in the face of recent pullbacks shows that risk appetite is still holding up, though the recent intraday swings suggest a more cautious tone underneath the surface.

U.S. Treasuries finished Wednesday with losses across the curve after reversing from their mostly higher start. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.50%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.05%. 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • Nasdaq Composite: +17.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: + 13.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +13.0% YTD
  • DJIA: +8.7% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.3% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed lower at 46253 (-0.04%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 22670 (+0.66%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6671 (+0.40%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume for NYSE, but higher than average volume for Nasdaq (NYSE 1,172 mln vs avg. of 1,194 mln; NASDAQ 11,537 mln vs avg. of 9,291 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (664 mln/497 mln) and Nasdaq (7331 mln/4165 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 1703/1076; NASDAQ 2852/1962)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 136/23, NASDAQ 308/58).

After-Hours Action

Futures

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: JBHT +11.2%, BANR +3.8%, EPAC +3.6%, PNFP +3.2%, SNV +1.4%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: NVA +2.6% (5-for-1 forward ADS split), SEI +1.6% (names new co-CEO), AIR +1.3% (to become authorized service center for ETN aerospace customers across EMEA), RUM +1% (RUM and Perplexity introduce subscription bundle), WHF +0.9% (declares a special distribution of $0.035/sh), AGNC +0.2% (AGNC and ICE launch three indices), SAND +0.2% (Sup Ct of British Columbia grants final order for SAND RGLD merger), MMSI +0.1% (to acquire C2 CryoBalloon), DD +0.1% (Board approves previously announced separation of Qnity Electronics), ATGE +0.1% (to partner with Google to launch new AI credentials program)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MMLP -8.7%, REXR -2.8%, UAL -2.2%, FR -1.2%, TFIN -0.5% (also authorizes new $30 mln share repurchase program), SLG -0.4% (also acquires properties), HOMB -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: HYPR -20.5% (stock offering, provides guidance), SATL -12.8% (stock offering), HPE -9.4% (provides strategic overview; to merge segments; to increase dividend 10% in FY26, increases buyback auth by $3 bln, long yrtm guidance), DFLI -8.1% (stock offering; also stockholders approve incentive plan increase), BDX -5.8% (CFO to step down, provides guidance), TGB -4.5% ($150 mln bought deal financing), BITF -4% ($300 mln convertible notes offering), ZION -2.9% (to charge off $50 mln of loans following review), RGLD -1.8% (Sup Ct of British Columbia grants final order for SAND RGLD merger), CRSP -1.1% (files for $600 mln common share offering), GHI -0.6% (files for $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering), ICE -0.5% (AGNC and ICE launch three indices), RIG -0.5% (provides fleet update), CBSH -0.1% (FineMark shareholders approve merger), MMS -0.1% ($31 mln contract win)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries finished Wednesday with losses across the curve after reversing from their mostly higher start. The trading day started with relative strength in longer tenors after a night that saw the release of another below-consensus CPI report from China and ongoing focus on the country’s trade relationship with the U.S. after President Trump threatened to impose another round of tariffs in recent days. Longer tenors extended their starting gains in morning trade, briefly pressuring the 30-yr yield to its lowest level since April while the 10-yr yield approached, but stopped just above, its low from September. The 2-yr note fell past its morning low shortly before noon while longer tenors followed suit. The selling lifted yields on longer tenors back to their highs from Tuesday while the 2-yr yield stopped about two basis points below its settlement from last week. Crude oil gave back an overnight gain while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 98.80.

Yields

  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.50%
  • 3-yr: +3 bps to 3.51%
  • 5-yr: +3 bps to 3.63%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.05%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.64%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index remained below 99 on Wednesday, as investors assessed recent trade developments and comments from Federal Chair Powell that reinforced expectations of continued interest rate cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high US tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing delaying its planned restrictions on rare earth exports, offering some relief to investors after recent tensions. The move followed a renewed escalation, with President Trump ultimately threatening a cooking oil embargo in response to China’s soybean boycott. On the monetary policy front, Chair Powell on Tuesday warned of rising risks to employment, strengthening market bets on further easing. The odds of another 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this month currently stand at about 97%. Meanwhile, the euro advanced after France proposed suspending major pension reforms, while the yen strengthened as traders unwound the “Takaichi trade”.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: +0.2% to 1.1635
  • GBP/USD: +0.5% to 1.3384
  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 7.1315
  • USD/JPY: -0.3% to 151.28

Euro Rebounds on French Political Stability and US Rate-Cut Hopes
The euro bounced back above $1.16, recovering from a more than two-month low of $1.154 hit on Tuesday, as investors welcomed signs of political stabilization in France and assessed rising expectations of US interest rate cuts. French Prime Minister Lecornu told parliament he supports suspending pension reforms until the 2027 presidential election, aiming to secure Socialist backing and survive crucial no-confidence votes on Thursday. In the US, Fed Chair Powell highlighted ongoing deterioration in the labor market, reinforcing expectations of another rate cut this month. This dovish outlook contrasts with ECB projections, which suggest interest rates are likely to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, US–China trade tensions intensified as President Trump signaled Washington might end certain trade ties with China. Both nations imposed extra port fees on each other’s shipping firms, following Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing’s tighter controls on rare earth exports.

Offshore Yuan Snaps 3-Session Decline
The offshore yuan rose to around 7.12 per dollar on Wednesday, snapping a three-session decline, as the People’s Bank of China reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining currency stability. The central bank set the yuan’s fixing at 7.0995 per dollar, marking its strongest level in nearly a year and breaking the key 7.1 threshold. The move aims to mitigate broader economic and geopolitical fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions. On the economic front, the latest inflation data pointed to continued weakness, reflected in persistent deflationary pressures. Consumer prices fell more than expected in September, though the decline moderated slightly from August. Meanwhile, producer prices remained in deflation for a third straight year in August, albeit at a slower pace than in July. Externally, the yuan drew further support from a weaker US dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled openness to a possible rate cut at the late-October meeting.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude oil futures slid 0.8% to settle at $61.9 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures fell 0.7% to settle at $58.3 per barrel on Wednesday, extended their losses for second day and hovering near a five-month low as persistent US-China trade tensions and mounting supply concerns weighed on sentiment. The International Energy Agency warned that the global oil market could face a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, heightening fears of sluggish demand. The renewed trade dispute between the world’s two largest oil consumers — including new port fees and tariff threats — further disrupted global freight flows and dampened market confidence. Expectations of another weekly rise in US crude inventories reinforced signs of oversupply, marking what could be the third consecutive week of stock builds. Traders are now awaiting official US inventory data for clearer signals on demand, as the market continues to absorb returning OPEC+ production.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at $3.62

Commodities

  • Crude Oil -0.49 @ 58.28
  • Nat Gas -0.02 @ 3.01
  • Gold +39.70 @ 4204.80
  • Silver +0.76 @ 51.39
  • Copper -0.01 @ 5.02

Copper Rises on US Rate Cut Bets
Copper futures climbed back above $5 per pound on Wednesday,recouping losses from the previous session as dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell reinforced expectations for more US rate cuts, improving the global demand outlook. In top consumer China, fresh data pointed to persistent deflationary pressures, fueling hopes for additional stimulus. Premier Li Qiang reiterated calls to boost domestic consumption and curb unfair competition among firms. On the trade front, sentiment stayed cautious after President Trump threatened Beijing with a cooking oil embargo in retaliation for China’s soybean boycott, though he is expected to meet President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month to ease tensions. Meanwhile, supply concerns persisted as output disruptions in Chile and Indonesia tightened global production, with Codelco reporting its weakest monthly output in over two decades and Grasberg mine operations still limited after last month’s fatal accident.

Silver Hovers Near All-Time Highs
Silver climbed back above $52 per ounce on Wednesday, holding close to record highs hit in the prior session as a global supply crunch fueled a historic rally. Tightness was most acute in the London market, where a short squeeze sent lease rates surging over 30% on Friday, driving rollover costs for short positions to unsustainable levels. Demand from India has further strained supply, prompting several mutual fund houses to suspend inflows into their silver ETF fund-of-fund schemes. Meanwhile, dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, who pointed to labor market weakness, strengthened bets on more US rate cuts and boosted appetite for precious metals. On the geopolitical front, tensions deepened after President Trump threatened Beijing with a cooking oil embargo in response to China’s soybean boycott.

Baltic Dry Index Falls for 2nd Day
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index decreased 1.2% to 1,997 points on Wednesday, extending a 5.7% fall on Tuesday, mainly due to weakness in larger vessels. The capesize index, which tracks ships carrying heavy cargoes like iron ore and coal, dropped 3% to 2,916 points. The decline followed new port fees imposed by both the US and China on shipping firms, escalating trade tensions and turning ocean freight into a new battleground in their trade dispute. These fees are expected to disrupt trade routes, increase costs, and add volatility to freight markets. Some US-linked ships are already avoiding Chinese cargoes, which could reduce available shipping capacity and keep freight rates elevated in the longer term. Meanwhile, smaller vessel categories performed better: the panamax index, which reflects medium-sized ships transporting coal and grain, inched up 0.3% to 1,821 points, while the supramax index, tracking smaller bulk carriers, gained 0.7% to 1,418 points.

Palm Oil Snaps Three-Session Slide
Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,450 per tonne, reversing losses from the previous three sessions. The rebound followed reports that top producer Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to secure domestic biodiesel supply. The country plans to roll out B50 biodiesel in 2026 and introduce 10% bioethanol in gasoline to curb emissions and reduce fuel imports. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s palm oil output fell 0.73% in September from August to 1.84 million tonnes, marking the first decline in three months, according to the Malaysia Palm Oil Board. However, further gains were limited by a stronger ringgit. On the demand side, India, the world’s largest palm oil consumer, is expected to import less than 600,000 tonnes this month, following a 16% decline in September. U.S.-China trade tensions also weighed on sentiment after Trump accused Beijing of deliberately cutting U.S. soybean imports, raising uncertainty over Chinese demand.

ROTW UPDATES

  • Treasury Secretary Bessent said during an interview with CNBC that defense companies may be asked to prioritize R&D over share buybacks.
  • South Korea’s national security office met to discuss ensuring a stable supply of rare earth elements.
  • Standard & Poor’s affirmed New Zealand’s AA+ rating.
  • French Prime Minister Lecornu will reportedly abandon pension reform plans in an attempt to appease his opposition.
  • British Chancellor Reeves said that she is considering tax hikes and spending cuts in the upcoming Autumn budget.
  • China’s September CPI was up 0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.0%) but down 0.3% yr/yr (expected -0.2%; last -0.4%). September PPI was down 2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last -2.9%). September New Loans reached CNY1.290 bln (expected CNY1.460 bln; last CNY590 bln), September outstanding loans grew 6.6% yr/yr (expected 6.7%; last 6.8%), and September total social financing reached CNY3.53 trln (expected CNY3.32 trln; last CNY2.57 trln).
  • Japan’s August Industrial Production was down 1.5% m/m (expected -1.2%; last -1.2%) and Capacity Utilization was down 2.3% m/m (last -1.1%).
  • South Korea’s September trade surplus reached $9.53 bln (expected surplus of $9.56 bln; last surplus of $6.51 bln) as imports grew 8.2% yr/yr, as expected (last -4.1%) and exports rose 12.6% yr/yr (expected 12.7%; last 1.2%).
  • Australia’s September MI Leading Index was unchanged m/m (last -0.1%).
  • Eurozone’s August Industrial Production was down 1.2% m/m (expected -1.6%; last 0.5%) but up 1.1% yr/yr (last 2.0%).
  • France’s September CPI was down 1.0% m/m, as expected (last 0.4%) but up 1.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.9%).
  • Spain’s September CPI was down 0.3% m/m (expected -0.4%; last 0.0%) but up 3.0% yr/yr (expected 2.9%; last 2.7%). September Core CPI was up 2.4% yr/yr (expected 2.3%; last 2.4%).

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • The Empire State Manufacturing survey rose to 10.7 in October (Briefing.com consensus -1.8) from -8.7 in September.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 1.8% to follow last week’s 4.7% decrease. The Purchase Index was down 2.7% while the Refinance Index fell 1.0%.
  • The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for October showed little overall change in economic activity since the last report. Consumer spending softened a touch while demand for leisure and hospitality from foreign tourists continued weakening. Wealthier individuals continued spending on luxury travel and accommodations. Manufacturing activity varied with some contacts reporting challenges from tariffs and falling demand. Employment was little changed while prices continued climbing.
  • Senate Republicans will hold votes on three bills that fund various government agencies to put pressure on Democrats, Politico
  • Anthropic could triple annualized revenue next year, according to Reuters
  • Regulators want to encourage small banks to lend more by easing capital requirements, according to Bloomberg
  • The Trump administration secretly conducted covert CIA action in Venezuela, according to NY Times
  • Judge temporarily blocks the Trump administration from conducting federal layoffs during shutdown, according to NY Times
  • President Trump tells CNN in a phone interview that if Hamas doesn’t uphold its end of the ceasefire deal, he would consider allowing Israel to resume military action in Gaza
  • President Trump signed an executive order requiring federal hiring to follow specific policies and procedures established by agency leadership to improve the efficient delivery of government services
  • President Trump signs executive order that allows military to be paid during government shutdown
  • Senate bill to fund government fails to get 60 votes needed to pass; shutdown continues

US Mortgage Rates Fall Slightly: MBA
The average contract interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) in the US edged down to 6.42% in the week ending October 10th, 2025, from 6.43% the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. A year earlier, borrowing costs were at 6.52%. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $806,500) decreased to 6.47% from 6.6%. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA remained unchanged at 6.19%.

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Rises
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 19.4 points to 10.7 in October 2025, marking its third positive reading in the last four months and beating market expectations of -1.0, signaling modest growth in business activity across New York State. New orders improved to 3.7 from -19.6 in September, while shipments rebounded to 14.4 from -17.3. Delivery times lengthened slightly (3.9 vs 0.0), and supply availability continued to worsen modestly (-10.7 vs -8.8). Inventories were largely unchanged (-1.0 vs -4.9). Employment increased to 6.2 from -1.2, though the average workweek edged slightly lower (-4.1 vs -5.1). Both input costs and selling prices rose at a faster pace. Firms grew more optimistic about the near-term outlook, with nearly half expecting conditions to improve in the coming months.

US Mortgage Applications Fall for 3rd Week
Mortgage applications in the US fell 1.8% in the week ending October 10, 2025, marking the third consecutive decline in mortgage demand. Applications to refinance a home loan decreased 1% and those to buy a home dropped 2.7%. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.42% from 6.43%. “Mortgage applications were lower than the week before, as conventional and VA applications saw declines,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA applications saw a stronger week, and FHA refinance applications in particular increased 12 percent as the FHA rate stayed more than 10 basis points lower than the conventional fixed rate. Purchase applications declined for the third consecutive week but remained 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace as improving inventory conditions in certain markets continue to maintain homebuyer interest.”

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • Abbott Labs (ABT) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS in-line
  • Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) provides Q3 operating results
  • American Public Education (APEI) provides preliminary Q3 results; expects Q3 revenue to exceed top end of prior guidance range
  • ASML (ASML) beats by €0.03, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; guides FY25 revs in-line
  • Biogen (BIIB) expects GAAP and non-GAAP results for 3Q25 to include acquired in-process research and development, upfront and milestone expense of approximately $2 mln; Expected to impact EPS by approximately ($0.01)
  • Bunge (BG) recasts 2025 outlook and reporting structure following Viterra merger
  • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; raises dividend
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR) reaffirms Third-Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Outlook at Investor Day
  • EQT Corp. (EQT) expects to report a total gain on derivatives of $136 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025
  • Hancock Whitney (HWC) beats by $0.06; provides FY25 guidance in slides
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) beats by $0.70, beats on revs
  • PNC (PNC) beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus
  • Progressive (PGR) reports Q3 (Sep) results
  • Prologis (PLD)  beats by $0.05, beats on revs; raises FY25 core FFO guidance; expands power capacity to support data center growth
  • Range Resources (RRC) expects to report a $92.9 mln gain on derivatives in Q3; also expects net cash receipt on derivative settlements of $62 mln
  • Synchrony Financial (SYF) beats by $0.63, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 revs in-line
  • Taseko Mines (TGB) provides Q3 Gibraltar operational results
  • TotalEnergies (TTE) Q3 output rises 4% as refining margins surge, offsetting lower oil prices
  • Veritone (VERI) announces VDR contract wins with leading hyperscalers; guides Q3 revenue above consensus
  • Vontier (VNT) anticipates Q3 dales to be slightly above the midpoint of prior guidance with adj EPS near or at the high end
  • Winmark (WINA) announces third quarter results; approved the payment of $10.00 per share special dividend to shareholders

2025 OCT 16

Pre-Market: BK SCHW CMC IIIN KEY MTB MAN MMC SNA TRV TSM USB

After-Hours: OZK CNS CSX FNB GBCI IBKR LBRT SFNC

THE WEEK AHEAD

WEEK 42: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13 to OCTOBER 17

According to the PTSD*, Week 42 has FIVE trading days and is the THIRD trading week in OCTOBER 2025. Seasonally, the PTSD has the week marked as slightly bullish. OCT 17 is Expiration Friday

We also have to keep in mind that with the current POTUS, the seasonals can go out of whack very easily.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices for 2025 OCTOBER 16 of Week 42 over a 21-year average are:

  • Dow Jones (DJIA): Slightly Bullish 61.9%
  • S&P 500 (SPX): Somewhat Bullish 71.4%
  • NASDAQ (COMP): Slightly Bullish 61.9%
  • *Russells 2000 (RUT): Slightly Bearish 46.7%

*The RUT is not listed in the STA; several penguins with a slide ruler calculated the 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs  for 2025 OCTOBER 16 of Week 42 over a 15-year average are:

  • DIA – (15yr Avg): Bullish 80.0%
  • SPY – (15yr Avg): Bearish 36.4%
  • QQQ – (15yr Avg): Mildly Bullish 60.0%
  • RUT – (15yr Avg): Mildly Bullish 60.0%

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 8:30 ET: September PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior -0.1%), Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%), September Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.6%), Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.7%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 227,000; prior NA), Continuing Claims (prior NA), and October Philadelphia Fed survey (Briefing.com consensus 9.1; prior 23.2)
  • 10:00 ET: August Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.2%) and October NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.com consensus 33; prior 32)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior 80 bcf)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

The markets gaped up nicely and opened with volumes indicating a bullish trade was possible, but market internals deteriorated after 10.30 pm. At 11.45 pm, I called it divergent and went to bed.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, forexfactory.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, finviz.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)