WMO: Weekly Market Outlook (2025 Week 38|SEPT15 – SEPT19)

WMO of MONDAY to FRIDAY, 2025 SEPTEMBER 15 to SEPTEMBER 19

The stock market posted a broadly positive week, led by gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+2.0%) and the S&P 500 (+1.6%), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%) and smaller-cap indices finished with more modest results. The Russell 2000 (+0.3%) and S&P MidCap 400 (-0.4%) underperformed, highlighting the market’s reliance on mega-cap strength. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (+0.3%) lagged the market-weighted index, further underscoring the influence of the largest components.

The information technology sector (+3.1%) was the standout sector this week, fueled by strong moves in the mega-cap cohort and broad optimism in semiconductor names. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+2.0%) reflected this dynamic, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+4.2%) climbed in response to AI-related enthusiasm and company-specific gains.

Oracle’s (+25.5%) remarkable mid-week surge following its RPO update propelled the technology sector and created volatility across the “magnificent seven,” emphasizing the outsized influence of single-company moves.

Tesla (TSLA, +12.9%) and Broadcom (AVGO +7.5%) were among other notbale mega-cap moves.

In other corporate news, Paramount Skydance’s (+25.3%) potential acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (+55.8%) propelled both stocks higher despite regulatory concerns.

Economic data reinforced expectations of a continued easing cycle. While the August PPI print came in slightly hotter than expected (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), and Core CPI met expectations at 0.3%, a 27,000 spike in initial jobless claims to 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 240,000), their highest level since October 2021, bolstered the market’s current rate cut expectations through the end of the year.

Overall, the combination of strong technology leadership, encouraging rate cut expectations, and select corporate news allowed the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and DJIA to all set record highs this week, even as pockets of weakness persisted.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq Composite: +14.7% YTD (+2.0% this week)
S&P 500: +12.0% YTD ( +1.9% this week)
DJIA: +7.7% YTD ( +1.0% this week)
Russell 2000: +7.5% YTD ( +0.3% this week)
S&P Mid Cap 400: +5.2% YTD (-0.4%this week)

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Monday:

Early strength in the market’s top-weighted names lifted the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) to a record high of 21,885.62, while the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and DJIA (+0.3%) closed with more modest gains.

The information technology (+0.7%) and consumer discretionary (+0.5%) sectors led the way for the entirety of the session, supported by strong leadership in their mega-cap components. A flurry of late afternoon buying activity saw the materials (+0.2%) and industrials (+0.2%) sectors eke out a modest gain, while the financials sector finished on its flatline.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF advanced 0.7%, with the mega-cap advantage helping the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.2%) outperform the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.1%).

A mix of semiconductor strength and earnings buzz kept the technology sector seated as the top-performing S&P 500 sector.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed with a 0.9% gain. Broadcom (AVGO 345.65, +10.76, +3.21%) was a notable standout, with the stock continuing to trade higher following the company’s impressive earnings report Friday before the open.

Oracle (ORCL 238.50, +5.70, +2.45%) finished with a nice gain ahead of its own earnings report after the close tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL 237.88, -1.81, -0.76%) traded lower ahead of the company’s annual September showcase tomorrow, at which reports predict the company will unveil the iPhone 17 along with a slimmer model of the iPhone.

Within the consumer discretionary sector, Amazon’s (AMZN 235.84, +3.51, +1.51%) advance was enough to offset a loss in Tesla (TSLA 347.34, -3.50, -1.00%), which traded lower following a report from Reuters that showed Tesla’s U.S. market share has fallen to its lowest level since 2017 as the company faces increasing competition in the EV space.

The communication services sector (-0.3%) spent most of the day among the best-performing sectors, though it finished lower as Alphabet (GOOG 234.16, -1.01, -0.43%) ceded its early gain.

The sector also faced pressure in its telecom components T-Mobile US (TMUS 242.90, -9.86, -3.90%), Verizon (VZ 43.32, -1.06, -2.39%), and AT&T (T 28.92, -0.68, -2.28%) following EchoStar’s (SATS 80.63, +13.39, +19.91%) $17 billion spectrum sale to SpaceX.

Smaller-cap indices had a subdued performance, with the Russell 2000 (+0.1%) shaking off early weakness to the tune of a slight gain, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 finished flat.

Ultimately there was not a great deal of conviction on the part of buyers or sellers today.

Breadth figures reflected this notion, with advancers outpacing decliners by a slim 5-to-4 margin on the NYSE and a roughly 13-to-9 margin on the Nasdaq.

Besides a 1.1% loss in the thinly traded utilities sector, gains and losses were limited to a maximum of 0.7% across the other ten S&P 500 sectors.

At the index level, the market benefitted from investors buying the dip in mega-cap names from Friday’s retreat, with a lack of notable developments preserving but not furthering the early gains. The market now turns to the release of August PPI and CPI data as the next key drivers of market direction. Corporate headlines were otherwise relatively quiet, though Robinhood Markets (HOOD 117.28, +16.03, +15.83%) and AppLovin (APP 547.04, +56.80, +11.59%) traded sharply in response to their addition to the S&P 500 before the open on September 22.

U.S. Treasuries climbed to begin the week, with 10s and 30s adding to their big post-NFP gains from Friday while the short end started higher, but pulled back as the day went on. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.49% and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.05%.

Reviewing today’s data:

Consumer credit increased by $16.0 billion in July (Briefing.com consensus: $10.5 billion) following a downwardly revised $4.3 billion decline (from +$7.4 billion) in June.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the expansion in consumer credit was driven by revolving credit, which saw the largest jump since January 2024. That might be construed as a sign that consumers are using credit cards more to fund everyday purchases in the face of higher costs, but noticing the jump in nonrevolving credit in July suggests that may not be fully accurate in a broad sense.

Tuesday:

With little in the way of macro catalysts or corporate news, the major averages traded sideways for much of the session before an uptick in buying activity saw the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) establish a new record high (21,891.42) and closing high, while the S&P 500 (+0.3%) and DJIA (+0.4%) captured record closing highs of their own.

The major averages benefitted from broad-based sector strength, with the communication services sector (+1.7%) leading the way, supported by strong leadership in its mega-cap components, Alphabet (GOOG 239.94, +5.78, +2.47%) and Meta Platforms (META 765.70, +13.40, +1.78%).

Mega-caps as a unit had a relatively subdued session, though they especially benefitted from the late afternoon buying pickup. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.3%) closed with a decent gain after spending the day oscillating around its flatline.

Yesterday’s top movers, the information technology (flat) and consumer discretionary (+0.1%) sectors, clawed just above their opening levels after a long stint in negative territory, though their improvement was particularly supportive to the final standings of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

While today’s advances were modest in nature, they were broad-based, as only the materials (-1.6%), industrials (-0.7%), and real estate (-0.1%) sectors finished lower.

Despite a scarcity of corporate headlines, UnitedHealth (UNH 348.18, +27.93, +8.72%) made a significant upward move following amendments to the company’s guidance disclosure.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL 234.35, -3.53, -1.48%) traded lower following the company’s annual product launch event, with investor focus on iPhone pricing. The iPhone Air will debut at $999 as the slimmer entry model, while the price of the iPhone Pro rose by $100 to $1,099.

There were no notable economic data releases today, though attention centered on the preliminary benchmark revision to payroll growth estimates for March 2024-March 2025. The revision showed a record overstatement of 911,000 jobs, confirming expectations for a significant downward adjustment.

The stock market had a muted reaction to the revision, as rate cut expectations hardly changed in response. The market is still fully pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, while the CME FedWatch assigns an 8.2% probability of a 50-basis point cut, down from 10.6% yesterday.

While smaller cap indices might have gained momentum in response to heightened expectations for a 50-basis point cut, the Russell 2000 retreated 0.6%, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 slipping 0.9%.

Market focus now turns to tomorrow’s release of August PPI data, with CPI to follow on Friday. Those inflation readings, if hotter than expected, could revive concerns about the broader health of the economy and test the market’s conviction in its current rate cut expectations for the October and December FOMC meetings.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Tuesday, making for a shallow pullback after four days of gains that sent yields to their lowest levels in at least three months. There was some light buying after the U.S. Treasury kicked off this week’s note and bond auction slate with a strong sale of 3-year notes that saw stellar foreign demand. The 2-year note yield settled up five basis points to 3.54% and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.72%.

Reviewing today’s data:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8 in August from 100.3 in July.

Wednesday

The stock market’s early strength, fueled by Oracle’s (ORCL 328.33, +86.82, +35.95%) massive RPO update and an encouraging August PPI print, quickly lifted the S&P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (flat) to fresh record highs. However, momentum faded as the session wore on, with investors showing reluctance to extend gains, leaving the major averages to close well below their early peaks.

The S&P 500 set an all-time high level of 6,555.97 this morning and captured a record closing high of 6,532.04. The Nasdaq Composite set an all-time high of 22,000.97 around the same time and eked out a record closing high of 21,886.06. The DJIA (-0.5%) never breached its flatline, highlighting pockets of weakness in today’s market.

Oracle’s extraordinary upwards move was the main driver of action today. Investors were enthused by the company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO), which skyrocketed to $455 billion, up 359% year-over-year, as the company has locked in substantial cloud contracts among major AI players.

Semiconductor names benefitted from increased optimism around AI growth potential, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index closing with a 2.4% gain. NVIDIA (NVDA 177.33, +6.57, +3.85%) and Broadcom (AVGO 369.57, +32.90, +9.77%) were among some of the market’s largest names that benefited from Oracle’s move and contributed to gains at the index level.

The broader technology sector finished with a 1.8% gain, tying the energy sector (+1.8%) as the best-performing among the eleven S&P 500 sectors.

Not all mega-cap tech names found themselves on the right side of today’s action. Amazon (AMZN 230.33, -7.91, -3.32%), Apple (AAPL 226.79, -7.56, -3.23%), and Meta Platforms (META 751.98, -13.72, -1.79%) all incurred notable losses. Oracle’s arrival as an even larger player than previously thought within the AI realm could reflect some reallocation of capital away from some of the “magnificent seven” names that have garnered an outsized share of the market’s attention.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished flat for the day as a result.

Sector strength was also an almost even split, with six S&P 500 sectors trading lower. The consumer discretionary (-1.6%), consumer staples (-1.1%), health care (-0.9%), and communication services (-0.9%) sectors closed with the widest losses, while the financials (-0.3%) and real estate (-0.1%) sectors faced more modest retreats.

On the monetary policy front, a deflationary reading of the August PPI (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and Core PPI (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) helped equities surge out of the gate. Rate cut expectations through the end of the year changed very little, which is a sign of strength, as the market is currently expecting 75-basis points of rate cuts before year’s end.

While the market rallied around today’s earnings and economic data, a steady retreat from session highs reflects a hesitancy to push further into record territory, as investors balance AI-driven growth with historically high valuations.

The market’s next test will be tomorrow’s August CPI report, which, in conjunction with the weekly jobless claims data, will put October and December rate cut expectations in focus.

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Wednesday after overcoming some early softness with help from the August PPI report and a strong $39 billion 10-year note reopening. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.53%, and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.03%.

Reviewing today’s data:

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 9.2%; Prior -1.2%
August PPI -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%, August Core PPI -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%
- The key takeaway from the report is that it will ease the market’s angst about pass-through effects for consumers, especially with the index for final demand services sliding 0.2% month-over-month. The added takeaway is that this report will keep the market locked on its view that there will be at least 75 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year.
July Wholesale Inventories 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.2%

Thursday:

This morning’s economic data strengthened the market’s rate cut expectations through the end of the year, sending the S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (+1.4%) to record intraday and closing highs as stocks mounted a broad-based advance.

While the August PPI print came in slightly hotter than expected (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), and Core CPI met expectations at 0.3%, today’s focus centered around a 27,000 spike in initial jobless claims to 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 240,000), their highest level since October 2021.

While neither data report was particularly comforting, investors were, at least for the short term, enthused by the effect the weaker labor data had on near-term rate cut expectations.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 92.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut to 3.75-4.00% at the October FOMC meeting versus 80.9% yesterday, and an 86.2% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut to 3.50-3.75% at the December FOMC meeting versus 74.5% yesterday.

A 25-basis point rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting was fully priced in entering today’s session.

Stocks largely moved higher in response to the bolstered rate cut odds, with the major averages charting new record highs all the way through to the close.

Ten S&P 500 sectors closed with gains, with only the energy sector finishing flat as crude oil futures settled today’s session $1.31 lower (-2.1%) at $62.36 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the materials (+2.1%), health care (+1.7%), consumer discretionary (+1.7%), financials (+1.7%), and real estate (+1.6%) sectors closed with gains wider than 1.5%.

Despite only a modest flow of corporate headlines, there were some impressive individual moves today.

Centene (CNC 34.08, +2.82, +9.00%) moved higher after reaffirming its FY25 guidance, Micron (MU 150.57, +10.57, +7.55%) benefitted from a price increase to $175 from $150 at Citigroup, and a Wall Street Journal report that Paramount Skydance (PSKY 17.50, +2.39, +15.82%) is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 16.17, +3.63, +28.95%) sent both stocks sharply higher.

Tesla (TSLA 368.81, +21.02, +6.04%) was the top performer among the market’s largest names amid a relatively subdued session for the mega-caps. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closed with a 0.5% gain.

While most pockets of the market displayed strength today, homebuilder names outperformed in response to the bolstered rate cut probabilities, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF up 2.8%.

Outside of the S&P 500, smaller-cap indices relished in the prospect of a friendlier future rate environment. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.8%, and the S&P MidCap 400 added 1.6%.

On the policy front, CNBC reported that the Senate will vote Monday on Stephen Miran’s Fed Governor nomination, potentially seating him in time for the September FOMC meeting. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled he intends to expand the list of candidates under consideration for President Trump’s next Fed Chair nomination.

U.S. Treasuries ended Thursday with slim gains in longer tenors, while the short underperformed as the market pondered the implications of today’s economic data. The entire complex faced some pressure during the final two hours of action even though the U.S. Treasury completed this week’s strong note and bond auction slate with a 30-year bond reopening that was right on the screws.

The 2-year note settled unchanged at 3.53%, the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.01%, and the 30-year note yield settled down three basis points at 4.65%.

Reviewing today’s data:

August CPI 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%, August Core CPI 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%
- The key takeaway from the report (for Main Street) is that food prices were starkly elevated in August (+0.5%), as were shelter (+0.4%), apparel (+0.5%), transportation services (+1.0%), and gasoline (+1.9%) prices.
Weekly Initial Claims 263K (Briefing.com consensus 240K); Prior was revised to 236K from 237K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.939 mln; Prior was revised to 1.939 mln from 1.940 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is rooted in the eye-opening initial jobless claims print, which will be construed in the market’s mind as a weakening labor market signal and another basis for the Fed to cut rates in September, as well as in October and December.
The Treasury Budget for August showed a deficit of $344.8 billion compared to a deficit of $380.1 billion in the same period a year ago. The August deficit resulted from outlays ($689.1 billion) exceeding receipts ($344.3 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the August deficit cannot be compared to the July deficit of $291.1.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it underscores the large budget deficit the Treasury is running and how much larger it would be if not for the ramp-up in customs duties this fiscal year.

Friday:

The stock market traded in a mixed fashion on the heels of yesterday’s rate cut optimism-fueled rally, though strong performances across the mega-caps pushed the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (-0.1%) to fresh record highs.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite benefitted the most from today’s advance, establishing a new all-time high of 22,182.34 and a record closing high of 22,141.10.

The S&P 500 set a record high of 6,600.21 shortly before the close, but the index ran into some round number resistance at that mark and promptly retreated beneath its flatline.

Meanwhile, the DJIA (-0.5%) traded lower for the duration of the session, reflecting pockets of weakness in the broader market.

Only the utilities (+0.6%), consumer discretionary (+0.6%), information technology (+0.5%), and communication services (+0.2%) sectors closed with a gain, though these sectors (with the exception of the thinly traded utilities sector) have the highest concentration of mega-cap names.

Most notably, Tesla’s (TSLA 395.94, +27.13, +7.36%) strong move saw it finish with a 12.9% gain for the week, helping to mask Amazon’s (AMZN 228.15, -1.80, -0.78%) loss in the consumer discretionary sector.

Microsoft (MSFT 509.90, +8.89, +1.77%) and Apple (AAPL 234.07, +4.04, +1.76%) supported the information technology sector, which saw just modest strength in its chipmaker names, pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index to a 0.2% gain.

Though not mega-caps themselves, Paramount Skydance’s (PSKY 18.79, +1.33, +7.62%) potential majority-cash acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 18.91, +2.74, +16.94%) pushed both stocks higher for the second consecutive day in the communication services sector, despite a report from Bloomberg today that the transaction will likely face regulatory headwinds.

The sector’s largest names, Alphabet (GOOG 241.28, +0.50, +0.21%) and Meta Platforms (META 755.59, +4.69, +0.62%), moved slightly higher late in the afternoon, helping the sector finish near session highs.

Ultimately, the market’s heaviest components played a crucial role in limiting losses at the index level. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closed with a 0.6% gain, and the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%) outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.8%).

While losses were relatively broad-based, they were also modest. Only the health care sector (-1.1%) closed with a loss wider than 1.0%. COVID vaccine stocks such as Moderna (MRNA 23.51, -1.88, -7.40%) and Pfizer (PFE 23.89, -0.97, -3.90%) dipped following a Washington Post report that suggested health officials from the Trump administration plan to link COVID vaccines to the deaths of 25 children.

The sector also faced pressure in its biotech names, with the iShares Biotechnology ETF slumping 2.0% today.

Outside of the S&P 500, smaller cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (-1.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.1%) underperformed after surging yesterday on bolstered rate cut expectations.

Looking ahead, attention now turns squarely to next week’s FOMC meeting. A 25-basis point rate cut is fully priced in, but the updated dot plot and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will put the market’s expectations of three total rate cuts by year-end to the test.

Reviewing today’s data:

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for September checked in at 55.4 (Briefing.com consensus: 59.2) versus the final reading of 58.2 for August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 70.1.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the pullback in consumer sentiment was paced by fading economic views among lower-income and middle-income consumers.

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Friday with longer tenors leading the slide, though even with today’s underperformance, 10s and 30s added to their gains from the first week of September while 5s and shorter tenors finished the week in negative territory. The trading day started in the red after a night that featured fresh record highs in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi. The market received a sizable batch of data with China reporting a rebound in August social financing while a flat July GDP reading from the U.K. invited concerns about stagflation taking hold. The data flow slowed during the U.S. session, as the market only received the preliminary September Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan (55.4; Briefing.com consensus 59.2). The survey showed weakening sentiment for the second month in a row with five-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.9% from 3.5% in August. Treasuries added to their initial losses in morning trade, reaching lows around 11:30 ET. The rest of the day saw a slow rebound off those levels with 5s and shorter tenors returning to their opening levels while longer tenors finished a bit behind, but the long bond still logged a strong gain for the week. Crude oil finished the week with a slim gain of under $1/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 97.56, shedding 0.2% for the week.

YIELD CHECK

2-yr: +3 bps to 3.56% (+5 bps this week)
3-yr: +4 bps to 3.53% (+5 bps this week)
5-yr: +5 bps to 3.63% (+5 bps this week)
10-yr: +5 bps to 4.06% (-3 bps this week)
30-yr: +3 bps to 4.68% (-10 bps this week)

BOND YIELDS

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose nearly 3bps to 4.06% on Friday, holding just above the five-month lows hit in the prior session, as markets grew increasingly confident the Fed will resume rate cuts next week. A CPI report broadly in line with expectations, coupled with higher-than-forecast jobless claims, reinforced bets on easier policy, with traders pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction in the fed funds rate at the September meeting. Markets are currently anticipating the equivalent of two to three quarter-point cuts by year-end, while some participants are wagering on a larger half-point move next week. Yields climbed across the curve on Friday, led by the 20- and 30-year maturities.

3M: +1 bps at 4.08%
2Y: +5 bps at 3.56%
5Y: +4 bps at 3.63%
10Y: -4 bps at 4.06%
30Y: 10 bps at 4.68%

Bond yields increased at the front end of the yield curve but reduced at the tail end.

EARNINGS

21% Decline in the Number of S&P 500 Earnings Calls Citing “Tariffs” for Q2 vs. Q1

Given concerns in the market about tariffs, did more S&P 500 companies comment on tariffs during their earnings conference calls for the second quarter compared to the first quarter?

The answer is no. FactSet Document Search (which allows users to search for key words or phrases across multiple document types) was used to answer this question. Through Document Search, FactSet searched for the term “tariff” or “tariffs” in the conference call transcripts of all the S&P 500 companies that conducted earnings conference calls from June 15 through September 12.

Overall, the term “tariff” or “tariffs” was cited on 361 earnings calls conducted by S&P 500 companies during this period. This number reflects a quarter-over-quarter decline of 21% compared to Q1 2025, when the term “tariff” or “tariffs” was cited on 455 earnings calls (from March 15 through June 14).

However, it is important to note that this number still reflects the second-highest number of S&P 500 earnings calls where the term “tariff” or “tariffs” was cited over the past 10 years (using current index constituents going back in time), trailing only the record-high number from the previous quarter of 455.

At the sector level, the Industrials (63) and Information Technology (52) sectors have the highest number of earnings calls where the term “tariff” or “tariffs” was cited, while the Consumer Staples (95%), Materials (85%), and Industrials (83%) sectors have the highest percentages of earning calls where the term “tariff” or “tariffs” was cited.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, all 11 sectors recorded a decline in the number of earnings calls where the term “tariff” or “tariffs” was cited, led by the Financials (-18) and Real Estate (-14) sectors.

By John Buters | 2025 SEPTEMBER 12 | Factset.com

WEEK 38 EARNINGS CALENDAR

Monday (Sep 15)
- Pre-Market: HAIN
- After-Hours: HAIN
Tuesday (Sep 16)
- Pre-Market: FERG
- After-Hours: None

Wednesday (Sep 17)
- Pre-Market: CBRL GIS
- After-Hours: None

Thursday (Sep 18)
- Pre-Market: DRI FDS
- After-Hours: FDX LEN

Friday (Sep 19)
- Pre-Market: None
  After-Hours: None

SEASONALS

WEEK 38: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 15 to SEPTEMBER 19

According to the PTSD*, Week 38 has FIVE trading days and is the THIRD trading week in SEPTEMBER 2025. Seasonally, the PTSD has the week marked as FLAT. This is the Quadruple Witching Expiration Friday Week.

Portfolio restructuring comes at the end of September, this has traditionally logged September into poor performace. Quadruple Witching happens in all of it’s volitile glory, seasonally, the week after is poor.
We also have to keep in mind that with the current POTUS, the seasonals can go out of whack very easily.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices Week 38 over a 21-year average, and the PTSD’s stats for Index ETFs over a 15-year average; now with a weekly average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs for Week 38– 15 year AVERAGE.

ANALYSIS

PUT/CALL RATIOS

Any reading above 1.00 is regarded as bearish.
As a common practice amongst the professionals, it is worth noting that the big money indicators are reliably the Index and ETF Put/Call Ratios while the Equity Put/Call Ratios are mostly novice/amateur participation.

PRICE-TO-PRICE DIVERGENCE

VOLUMES

SHILLER PE RATIO

The Shiller PE Ratio, as of Fri 12 Sep, is at 39.56, at 1.63% higher than the previous week of 38.93. It’s the highest weekly close YTD.

This is more than double of its mean (17.28) and its median (16.05). At this level, the ratio is above the middle between the historical high (44.19) and the mean or the median.

The highest close for the Shiller PE index for 2024 was 38.88 (6 Dec 2024).

The highest YTD close for 2025 was 39.56 on 12 Sep 2025. The U.S. market printed its second highest Shiller PE Ratio in its history at 40.00 in October 2021. The largest bubble remains as December 1999 at 44.19.

DAILY MONITORING TABLE (Last 5 Weeks)

In this week, there was only 1 convergent session, and it’s a bullish convergent session.

Over the last 5 weeks (24 trading sessions), there were 4 bearish divergent sessions, 8 bullish convergent sessions, and 12 divergent sessions (between the daily percentage changes and the market internals). (lesser divergent sessions for the last 5 weeks).

UVOL/DVOL and ADVANCES vs DECLINERS for NYSE and NASDAQ

Thursday was the only session this week where there’s obvious commitment, and it went to the Bulls. Other than that, neither the Bulls nor the Bears put up any convincing fight, as the ratios hovered around 3:2 for either side.

THE WEEK AHEAD

US Economic Releases

Mon 15 Sep
- Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tue 16 Sep
- Core Retail Sales m/m
- Retail Sales m/m
- Capacity Utilization Rate
- Industrial Production m/m
Wed 17 Sep
- Building Permits
- Housing Starts
- Federal Funds Rate
- FOMC Economic Projections
- FOMC Statement
- FOMC Press Conference
Thu 18 Sep
- Unemployment Claims
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Fri 19 Sep
- Nothing of note

International Releases

Mon 15 Sep
- CN: Industrial Production y/y, Retail Sales y/y
- EU: ECB President Lagarde Speaks
- UK: Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change
Tue 16 Sep
- EU: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- UK: CPI y/y
Wed 17 Sep
- EU: ECB President Lagarde Speaks
- AU: Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Thu 18 Sep
- UK: Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Official Bank Rate
- JP: BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference
- UK: Retail Sales m/m
Fri 19 Sep
- Nothing of note

The Week Ahead
Monetary policy decisions will be the focus next week as monetary authorities face uncertainty on growth, debt, and trade flows. The Federal Reserve will headline policy decisions and update its Summary of Economic Projections. Decisions for G10 members also include the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, while decisions by the Central Bank of Brazil, the South African Reserve Bank, and the Bank Indonesia headline those for emerging markets. Meanwhile, officials from the US and China will meet to continue discussing trade relations. On the data front, US retail sales and industrial production will update investors’ view on consumer strength and how industries reacted to tariffs. Inflation rates are due from the UK, Canada, Japan, and South Africa, while trade data is expected from the Eurozone, India, Japan, and Australia. Lastly, China’s monthly data dump will offer a updates on Asia’s largest economy.

Americas
In the US, attention will be on the Fed’s policy decision, updated economic projections, and Chair Powell’s press conference for signals on the policy path through the year-end. The FOMC is expected to cut the fed funds rate by 25bps to a target range of 4.00%–4.25%, although some investors bet on a sharper 50bps reduction, to mark the first cut since December and the lowest level since November 2022. Recent data suggest the labor market is cooling faster than anticipated, while tariff-driven price pressures have yet to make a significant impact on inflation. Meanwhile, US retail sales are projected to rise 0.3% in August, marking a third straight monthly gain, while industrial production likely stalled. Other key releases include foreign trade prices, housing starts and building permits, business inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index, net long-term TIC flows, and regional manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25bps as weakness in labor markets, investment, growth, and incomes persists. In Brazil, policymakers are likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged for a second consecutive meeting, following a 450bps tightening cycle that began in September 2024. Key macro indicators to watch include Canada’s inflation, retail sales, and housing starts, along with Brazil’s unemployment rate and GDP for Argentina.

Europe
In the United Kingdom, attention turns to the BoE’s policy decision where rates are expected to remain unchanged following the August cut. Key macro data will also be released: inflation is seen rising further to 3.9% in August, marking the highest level since January 2024; unemployment is forecast to hold steady at 4.7%, its highest since July 2021; and retail sales are projected to increase for a third consecutive month, offering some relief amid weak growth trends. In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected to decline for a second month, highlighting fragile confidence, while producer prices are set to record their steepest fall since May 2024. Across the Euro Area, industrial production is seen rebounding, while the final CPI is expected to confirm inflation at 2.1%. In France, the manufacturing climate index is forecast to slip to an 11-month low, and in Norway, the Norges Bank will announce its latest policy decision. Additional releases include Germany’s wholesale prices and trade balances for the Euro Area, Italy, and Switzerland.

Asia Pacific
In China, a raft of data releases will provide fresh insights into the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Industrial production and retail sales are both expected to accelerate slightly from July, rising 5.8% and 3.8% respectively, while fixed asset investment is projected to slow to a 1.4% increase. Additional releases will include unemployment and housing price figures. Meanwhile, Vice Premier He Lifeng is expected to meet with a US delegation in Spain to discuss economic and trade issues, including tariffs. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates at 0.5% as policymakers weigh domestic and global uncertainties, particularly the impact of US tariffs. Key data will include trade figures, with both exports and imports likely to remain weak, and CPI, where core inflation is expected to ease to 2.7%, its lowest since November 2024. In India, wholesale prices are forecast to rebound, rising 0.3% year-on-year in August after two months of deflation. Trade and unemployment data are also due. Australia will publish August jobs figures. Elsewhere, monetary policy decisions are expected from central banks in Indonesia and Taiwan, while New Zealand will release second-quarter GDP and trade data.

By andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com | 2025 SEPTEMBER 12

COMMENTARY

High Volatility did not occur last week, but Thursday saw a considerable convergence in the markets. It was a week of new highs, with the retail crowd jumping into the fray while the institutions were buttering the piglet for the roasting. I am looking forward to week 38. Sharpen your beaks, and oil your mice. I expect the action to start soon.

Happy Hunting!!

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)