A Penguin's Perspective

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Daily Market Analysis – 20260429

DMA of 2026 APRIL 29 WEDNESDAY AMC.

The stock market charted a mixed finish today amid a mix of rising oil prices, the April FOMC meeting, and caution ahead of a consequential round of mega-cap earnings. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished flat and spent time in positive territory amid fluctuations across tech stocks, while broader weakness forced the DJIA (-0.6%) lower. 

Stocks opened to relatively broad weakness as oil prices climbed following a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump has told his aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran in order to compel it to give up its nuclear ambitions. The president doubled down on his stance that a deal with the U.S. will not come without Iran surrendering its nuclear ambitions, prompting concerns that both sides are preparing for a prolonged stalemate. Crude oil futures settled today’s session $7.03 higher (+7.0%) at $106.98 per barrel..

As a result, the energy sector (+2.4%) was the only S&P 500 sector to finish with a gain wider than 0.2%, with Phillips 66 (PSX 173.49, +8.36, +5.06%) leading the advance after turning in a solid earnings report.

While the energy sector was the only sector of the market to log more than a modest gain, there were several notable earnings-based moves throughout the broader market today.

Visa’s (V 334.86, +25.56, +8.26%) stellar beat-and-raise report offset broader weakness and a sharp decline from Robinhood Markets (HOOD 71.20, -10.87, -13.24%) in the financials sector (+0.1%), while T-Mobile US (TMUS 198.17, +11.45, +6.13%) and Starbucks (SBUX 105.50, +8.22, +8.45%) led strength in the communication services (-0.1%) and consumer discretionary (+0.1%) sectors.

The information technology sector (+0.2%) also managed a modestly higher finish as semiconductor names outperformed after two consecutive weaker showings. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+2.4%) roughly halved its week-to-date loss, supported by strong post-earnings showings from Seagate Tech (STX 643.30, +64.27, +11.10%) and NXP Semi (NXPI 289.25, +58.86, +25.55%).

Intel (INTC 94.75, +10.23, +12.10%) also notched a double-digit gain.

On the macro front, today’s April FOMC decision did not surprise in the sense that the FOMC voted to keep the Fed Funds Target Range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s dissent in favor of a rate reduction was also unsurprising.

The surprise with this directive is that it featured three Fed presidents – Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Logan (Dallas) – dissenting over the language of the directive. Specifically, the three presidents, who supported maintaining the target range at 3.50-3.75%, did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.

Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time after his term as chair ends on May 15, noting he plans to keep a low profile as a governor.

On the topic of inflation, Mr. Powell said, “In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. Beyond that, the scope and the duration of the potential effects on the economy remain unclear.”

Attention now turns to this afternoon’s sizable batch of earnings reports, which will include results from four “magnificent seven” names in Amazon (AMZN 263.04, +3.34, +1.29%), Alphabet (GOOG 347.31, -0.19, -0.05%), Meta Platforms (META 669.12, -2.22, -0.33%), and Microsoft (MSFT 424.46, -4.79, -1.12%). All four names are up well over 10% this month as mega-cap tech has led the rebound from March lows, as the market attempts to look past the effects of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

However, massive capital expenditure plans related to AI investments have become a point of scrutiny across the group in recent earnings cycles, while today’s headlines and increase in oil prices suggest that macro pressures could complicate the near-term outlook for both margins and demand. All told, the market remains at an inflection point, with elevated valuations in mega-cap tech set against rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainty. The upcoming earnings reports will be critical in determining whether recent leadership can be sustained or if a broader pullback is warranted.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Wednesday, lifting the 30-year yield back to its March high while yields on shorter tenors also approached their highest levels from last month. The 2-year note yield settled up nine basis points to 3.93%, the 10-year note yield settled up six basis points to 4.42%, and the 30-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.99%.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • Russell 2000: +10.4% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.3% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +6.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: +4.2% YTD
  • DJIA: +1.7% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed lower at 48862 (-0.57%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 24673 (+0.04%). 
  • S&P 500 closed lower at 7136 (-0.04%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,159 mln vs avg. of 1,357 mln; NASDAQ 8,262 mln vs avg. of 9,122 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (396 mln/754 mln) and Nasdaq (3602 mln/4618 mln). 
  • Decliners led Advancers (NYSE 807/1963; NASDAQ 1502/3429)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows on the NYSE, but new lows outpacing new highs on Nasdaq (NYSE 78/40, NASDAQ 124/153).

After-Hours Action

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed on Thursday as investors assessed quarterly results from the Magnificent Seven technology firms. In extended trading, Alphabet jumped 7% after beating revenue expectations on strong Google Cloud performance, while Amazon rose nearly 3% on solid growth in its cloud computing segment. Microsoft also edged higher, supported by a 40% surge in revenue from its Azure and related cloud services, whereas Meta Platforms slid 7% after reporting weaker-than-expected first-quarter capital spending and disappointing user growth. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow and S&P 500 declined 0.57% and 0.04%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.04%. These movements followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave policy unchanged as anticipated, though four officials dissented, signaling increasing divisions over the policy outlook amid heightened uncertainty tied to the Iran war.

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: VIAV +19.3%, TTMI +16.4%, PI +15.1%, QCOM +14.9% (also authorizes new $20 bln stock repurchase program), FORM +14%, PRCT +12.4%, BHE +11.1%, MRAM +11.1%, GKOS +10.3%, CVNA +8.8%, FMC +8.5%, GOOG +6.7% (also increases dividend; raises CapEx guidance) ASIC +6.3%, SFM +6%, BNL +5.4%, CWH +5.2%, LXU +4.9%, AMZN +4.6%, CAKE +4.6%, CMG +4.2%, ORLY +4.2%, GFL +4%, ETD +3.8%, CBZ +3.4%, CUZ +3.4% (also increases share repurchase authorization by $250 mln), TTEK +2.8%, THG +2.5%, MYRG +2.3%, BHC +2.3%, CHRW +1.6%, MSFT +1.4%, FTAI +1.4%, AR +1.2%, MAT +1.1%, WH +1.1%, ALGN +0.9%, CP +0.7%, AWK +0.7%, MGM +0.6%, VICI +0.5%, MEOH +0.3%, EBAY +0.2% (also Depop acquisition to close in Q3), PLPC +0.2%, TYL +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: PUMP +4.5% (unit enters strategic framework agreement with CAT), SLNH +3.9% (stock offering by selling shareholders), VSAT +2.9% (successful launch and initial signal acquisition of the ViaSat-3 Flight 3 satellite), SPXC +2% (launch of the Marley OlympusMAX Fluid Cooler), POOL +1.3% (increases dividend and buyback program), SMR +1.2% (opens new office), EVO +1% (concludes cooperation agreement with MAK Capital), RMBS +0.7% (names new CFO), SWMR +0.5% (memorandum of understanding with HIMERA), ASRT +0.3% (co and Garda Therapeutics extend deadline on tender offer), ALEC +0.2% (discontinues Phase 2 PROGRESS-AD trial of nivisnebart), DRS +0.1% (awarded $150 mln modification to Army contract)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: TDOC -13.1%, NCSM -11.4%, KLAC -9.3% (also increases dividend and buyback program), FLS -9.2%, MDXG -8.3%, BBT -7.5%, TENB -7.1%, ACHC -6.6%, WAY -6.3%, EQIX -5.7%, META -5.6% (also increases CapEx guidance), AMRZ -5.1%, AMRZ -5.1%, WFG -3.3%, PPC -3.2%, SBAC -3.1%, UDR -3.1%, CVI -2.9%, ALKT -2.6% (also authorizes $100 mln stock repurchase program), MAX -2.5%, NFG -2.4%, INVH -2.1%, GRBK -2%, MORN -2%, MC -1.9%, AFG -1.9%, ALL -1.8%, F -1.6%, VKTX -1.5%, JOE -1.5%, QTWO -1.3%, SBRA -0.7%, AFL -0.4%, WWD -0.3%, PLXS -0.3% (also CEO to reitre; names new CFO), AGI -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: SHMD -2.1% (to delay 20-F filing), GRBK -2% (audit committee concludes residential unit revenue was incorrectly reported in prior periods), AUTL -1.4% (strategic initiative to improve operational efficiency), PYPL -1.1% (confirms strategic reorganization), XWIN -0.5% (files for $1 bln mixed shelf offering), NVO -0.3% (NEJM published 26-week results from the phase 3 FRONTIER2 trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of once-monthly and once-weekly denecimig (Mim8), LMT -0.3% (awarded $1.13 bln US Army contract), EL -0.1% (minority investment in 111SKIN)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Wednesday, lifting the 30-yr yield back to its March high while yields on shorter tenors also approached their highest levels from last month as crude oil raced past $105/bbl. Treasuries started the day with slim losses, but additional selling pressure built shortly after the open alongside upward pressure on the price of oil. A report from The Wall Street Journal that President Trump is planning an extended naval blockade of Iran contributed to oil’s rise to a level not seen in three weeks while Treasuries responded to the expected inflationary impact of this increase. The selling continued into the afternoon with the market reaching lows after the release of the latest FOMC Statement, which did not call for any immediate policy changes, but Fed presidents from Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas objected to including an easing bias in the Statement, suggesting a growing hawkish tilt. Fed Governor Miran also dissented, voting in favor of a rate cut. Fed Chairman Powell delivered his final press conference today, revealing that he will remain on the Board of Governors for some time after his term as Chairman ends on May 15. On a side note, his term as Fed Governor expires in January 2028. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 98.97, reclaiming its 50-day moving average (98.95).

Yields

  • 2-yr: +9 bps to 3.93%
  • 3-yr: +8 bps to 3.95%
  • 5-yr: +8 bps to 4.07%
  • 10-yr: +6 bps to 4.42%
  • 30-yr: +4 bps to 4.99%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index hovered near 99 on Thursday, sustaining recent gains after the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged as expected but adopted a more hawkish tone amid growing inflation concerns. Four policymakers also dissented from the decision, arguing the Fed should no longer signal a bias toward easing, underscoring rising internal divisions over the policy outlook as uncertainty increases due to the Iran conflict. Markets have since fully priced out Fed rate cuts for this year, while beginning to assign odds to a possible hike in 2027. Attention now turns to upcoming monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England later in the day. The dollar also drew support from elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, after President Donald Trump said the US would maintain its naval blockade on Iran until a nuclear agreement is reached, while Tehran accused Washington of attempting to force Iran into submission through economic pressure.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: -0.4% to 1.1668
  • GBP/USD: -0.3% to 1.3468
  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 6.8485
  • USD/JPY: +0.5% to 160.37

COMMODITIES

Brent crude futures climbed above $110 per barrel and WTI crude futures climbed above $107 per barrel on Thursday, rallying nearly 15% so far this week as the ongoing Middle East conflict kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, cutting off significant volumes of global energy flows. President Donald Trump stated that the US will maintain its naval blockade on Iran until a nuclear agreement is reached, while also outlining potential measures to extend the blockade with limited impact on domestic consumers during talks with oil and trading executives. At the same time, Iranian authorities warned of retaliation should the blockade persist and accused Trump of attempting to coerce Tehran into submission through economic pressure and internal destabilization. Elsewhere, US inventory data showed sharp declines in crude and fuel stockpiles, while exports surged to record highs above 6 million barrels per day, underscoring tightening global supply.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at $3.29

Commodities

  • Crude Oil +7.03 @ 106.98
  • Nat Gas +0.10 @ 2.65
  • Gold -46.80 @ 4561.00
  • Silver -1.88 @ 71.46
  • Copper -0.03 @ 5.94

Platinum Futures Hit 1-Month Low
Platinum futures dropped to around $1,900 an ounce, hitting a four-week low amid a broader sell-off in precious metals, as surging energy costs tied to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz intensified inflation concerns. The US has maintained its naval blockade on Iran until it agrees to a nuclear deal, while Tehran accused Washington of using economic pressure and political divisions to force compliance. The prolonged Middle East conflict and disruptions to the key shipping route heightened inflation risks, prompting expectations that major central banks may need to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer. In the US, the Fed Reserve kept policy unchanged as expected, highlighting uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict. Despite the price dip, the platinum market remains structurally tight, as production in South Africa and Russia, the two largest suppliers, faces ongoing challenges, including aging mines, high costs, and sanctions.

Silver Pressured by Inflation Risks
Silver traded around $72 an ounce on Thursday, hovering at three-week lows as surging energy costs intensified inflation worries and strengthened expectations that major central banks may need to raise interest rates. President Donald Trump said the US would keep its naval blockade on Iran in place until it agrees to a nuclear deal, while Tehran accused Trump of attempting to force the country into submission through economic pressure and internal divisions. The prolonged Middle East conflict and the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz unsettled global markets, prompting traders to scale back bets on rate cuts this year and instead begin pricing in the possibility of a hike by 2027. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve left its policy settings unchanged as widely expected, although four officials dissented, underscoring rising divisions over the policy outlook amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict.

Gold Hovers 1-Month Low on Inflation Risks
Gold traded around $4,550 an ounce on Thursday, hovering at one-month lows as surging energy costs intensified inflation worries and strengthened expectations that major central banks may need to raise interest rates. President Donald Trump said the US would keep its naval blockade on Iran in place until it agrees to a nuclear deal, while Tehran accused Trump of attempting to force the country into submission through economic pressure and internal divisions. The prolonged Middle East conflict and the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz unsettled global markets, prompting traders to scale back bets on rate cuts this year and instead begin pricing in the possibility of a hike by 2027. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve left its policy settings unchanged as widely expected, although four officials dissented, underscoring rising divisions over the policy outlook amid heightened uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict.

Baltic Dry Index Snaps 2-Day Advance
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, snapped a two-day winning streak on Wednesday, falling 0.3% to 2,670 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, decreased 0.5% to 4,283 points; and the supramax went down 0.5% to 1,534 points. On the other hand, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 0.7% to 1,979 points.

Palm Oil Edges Lower
Malaysian palm oil futures eased, hovering near MYR 4,520 per tonne amid weakness in Dalian palm olein and Chicago soyoil. Trading stayed muted as softer export prospects weighed on sentiment. Cargo surveyors reported April 1–25 shipments down 15.7%–16.8% from March, reflecting a typical post-festive slowdown. Buyers also held back on near-term purchases after the recent price run-up and amid ample inventories following strong February shipments, AmInvestment Bank noted. Still, losses were cushioned by a weaker ringgit, which boosts export competitiveness, and firmer crude oil after the U.S. reportedly may extend its blockade of Iranian ports. Looking ahead, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to stay above MYR 4,500 in the near term, supported by elevated energy costs and potential El Niño risks. Market participants now await China’s upcoming PMI data for clearer signals on demand conditions in key importing markets.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly higher note while markets in Japan were closed for a holiday with more holiday closures scheduled over the next week.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: CLOSED,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.7%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.7%,
  • India’s Sensex: +0.8%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +0.8%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%.

In news:

  • Still, Finance Minister Katayama said that her office is ready to respond to sudden moves in the foreign exchange market.
  • China is reportedly planning to double its refined fuel exports in May.
  • China halted the issuance of autonomous vehicle permits after Baidu’s fleet suffered a mass outage.
  • Australia’s Treasury expects inflation to peak at higher levels, given the recent jump in energy prices.

In economic data: 

  • Australia’s Q1 CPI 1.4% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.6%); 4.1% yr/yr (expected 4.2%; last 3.6%). March Monthly CPI Indicator 4.6% (expected 4.8%; last 3.7%)

Major European indices trade in the red.

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%,
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.2%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.8%,
  • France’s CAC 40: -0.4%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.1%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.6%.

In news: 

  • The Times Shadow committee voted 5-4 to recommend no BoE policy change.
  • Adidas beat Q1 revenue expectations while Airbus reaffirmed its delivery targets.
  • Germany’s flash CPI report for April will be released at 8:00 ET, expected to show an acceleration in headline CPI to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.7% in March.

In economic data:

  • Eurozone’s April Business and Consumer Survey 93.0 (expected 95.2; last 96.2). March Private Sector Loans 3.0% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last 3.0%) and loans to nofinancials 3.2% (last 2.9%)
  • Spain’s April CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 1.2%); 3.2% yr/yr (expected 3.5%; last 3.4%). April Core CPI 2.8% yr/yr (last 2.9%)
  • Italy’s April Consumer Confidence 90.8 (expected 91.2; last 92.6) and Business Confidence 87.9 (expected 88.0; last 88.7)
  • Swiss April ZEW Expectations -30.3 (last -35.0)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -1.6%; Prior 7.9%
  • February Housing Starts 1.356 mln; Prior was revised to 1.398 mln from 1.487 mln, February Building Permits 1.538 mln; Prior was revised to 1.386 mln from 1.376 mln, March Housing Starts 1.502 mln; Prior 1.356 mln, March Building Permits 1.372 mln; Prior 1.538 mln
    • The key takeaway from the report is that there was broad-based strength in starts by region but also broad-based weakness in permits by region. The latter is the better indicator for the impact of the Iran war and the uncertainty it has created because permits are a leading indicator.
  • March Durable Orders 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to -1.2% from -1.4%, March Durable Goods -ex transportation 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%); Prior was revised to 1.2% from 0.8%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that there was a big jump (+3.3%) in new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. This is a proxy for business spending, and it is believed to reflect in part the pickup in capital expenditures for AI initiatives.
  • March Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$87.9 bln; Prior -$83.5 bln
  • March Adv. Retail Inventories 0.7%; Prior 0.3%
  • March Adv. Wholesale Inventories 1.4%; Prior 0.9%
  • President Trump told his aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran in order to compel Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. President Trump believes that resuming bombing or walking away carries more risks (USO, XLE), WSJ
  • The U.S. blockade is causing severe economic hardship in Iran, WSJ
  • The White House is developing guidance for agencies to get around Anthropic’s supply risk designation, Axios
  • Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is alerting financial institutions to the sanctions risks associated with independent “teapot” oil refineries in China

Fed Holds Rates Steady for Third Straight Meeting
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a third consecutive meeting in April 2026, in line with expectations. The decision was not unanimous, with Governor Miran voting to lower interest rates by 25bps and three other members objecting the language in the statement that suggested the central bank would eventually resume cutting rates. The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a FOMC decision. The central bank reiterated that it will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and stands ready to adjust policy as needed if risks emerge that could hinder the achievement of its objectives. In addition, the Fed noted that developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Powell said he will remain Fed governor after his Chair term ends.

US Crude Oil Inventories Fall More than Expected
US crude inventories fell by 6.233 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels in the week ended April 24, compared with expectations for a 0.2 million barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub decreased by 796,000 barrels. Refinery activity increased, with crude runs rising by 84,000 barrels per day and utilisation rates up 0.5 percentage points. Fuel stocks also tightened more than expected. Gasoline inventories dropped by 6.075 million barrels to 222.3 million, compared with forecasts for a 2.1 million barrel decline. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 4.494 million barrels to 103.6 million, also exceeding expectations for a 2.2 million barrel draw. Net US crude imports fell by 1.968 million barrels per day over the week.

US Wholesale Inventories Rise More than Expected
US wholesale inventories advanced by 1.4% month-over-month to $932.8 billion in March 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in February and overshooting market forecasts for a 0.4% rise. This marked the second consecutive monthly increase in wholesale inventories and the strongest since June 2022, prompted by a surge in stocks of non-durable goods (3.2% vs 1% in February). On the other hand, durable goods inventory growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.9%. On a yearly basis, wholesale inventories rose 2.9% in March.

US Goods Gap Widens in March
The goods deficit in the US widened to $87.9 billion in March 2026 from $83.5 billion in February and compared to forecasts of an $87 billion gap. Exports of goods rose 2.5% to a record level of $211.5 billion, led by industrial supplies, the largest category, which increased 4.9%. This was followed by gains in capital goods (0.8%), foods, feeds and beverages (7.4%), and autos (5.1%). In contrast, exports of consumer goods, which account for about 10% of total goods exports, fell 7.5%. Meanwhile, imports of goods climbed at a faster 3.3% to $299.3 billion. Purchases of capital goods, which make up roughly 40% of total imports, rose 1%. Imports also increased for consumer goods (4.2%), industrial supplies (3.2%), autos (11%), and foods, feeds and beverages (3.3%).

US Durable Goods Orders Rebound
New orders for US-manufactured durable goods rose by 0.8% from the previous month to $318.9 billion in March of 2026, rebounding from the revised 1.2% drop in the previous month, and slightly ahead of market expectations of a 0.5% increase. The result reflected some traction to goods orders despite the jump injection of uncertainty in the period as the war with Iran triggered a surge in energy prices and disrupted global shipping. Orders rose sharply for computers and electronic products (3.7% to $29.6 billion), aligned with the stronger momentum for AI products. Orders were also higher for machinery (0.8% to $41.8 billion), primary metals (0.4% to 28.8 billion), electrical equipment (0.8% to $18.3 billion), and the commonly volatile transportation equipment space (0.8% to $106.7 billion).

US Housing Starts Surge to 15-Month High
US housing starts rose 10.8% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million in March 2026, the highest level since December 2024 and well above forecasts of 1.40 million, as builders scaled up construction despite ongoing affordability challenges. Single-family starts surged 9.7% to a 13-month high of 1.032 million, while multi-family starts jumped 9.6% to 446,000. Regionally, construction activity climbed sharply in the South (+9.1% to 794,000), the West (+7.2% to 311,000), the Midwest (+12.2% to 221,000), and the Northeast (+24.8% to 176,000). Meanwhile, building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, fell to an annualized pace of 1.372 million, the lowest level since August. The data suggests the housing market may be finding its footing, with builders using incentives to draw in buyers. Yet, the Iran war has introduced fresh economic uncertainty, pushing material costs and mortgage rates higher.

US Building Permits Fall to 7-Month Low
US building permits fell 10.8% month-on-month in March 2026, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, the lowest since August 2025. In February, building permits rose 11%. Permits for buildings with five or more units dropped by 23.5% to an annualized rate of 427 thousand, while single-family permits decreased by 3.8% to 895 Thousand. Regionally, permits declined in the Northeast (-29% to 115 thousand), the Midwest (-2.3% to 214 thousand), in the South (-7.7% to 717 thousand), and in the West (-14.2% to 326 thousand). less

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • AbbVie (ABBV) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus
  • Adidas AG (ADDYY) reports Q1 resuluts; reaffirms sales outlook
  • AerCap (AER) beats by $1.25, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus; announces buyback
  • Agios Pharma (AGIO) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; strong initial US commercial launch of AQVESME in thalassemia
  • Amphenol (APH) beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt (APAM) misses by $0.06, reports revs in-line
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) beats on top and bottom lines; reaffirms FY26 guidance
  • Automatic Data (ADP) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises FY26 EPS and revenue guidance
  • Avis Budget (CAR) reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs
  • Avnet (AVT) beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; raises FY26 revenue, adjusted EBITDA guidance
  • Biogen (BIIB) beats by $0.61, beats on revs; lowers FY26 EPS guidance
  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line
  • Blackbaud (BLKB) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Bloom Energy (BE) beats by $0.32, beats on revs; raises FY26 guidance
  • Brinker (EAT) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Bunge (BG) beats by $0.95, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus
  • BXP, Inc. (BXP) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 FFO below consensus; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) misses by $0.24, reports revs in-line
  • Canadian Nat’l Rail (CNI) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms outlook
  • Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) reports second quarter fiscal year 2026 results
  • CareDx (CDNA) beats by $0.39, beats on revs; raises FY26 revenue guidance
  • Carpenter Tech (CRS) beats by $0.14, beats on revs
  • Cognizant Tech (CTSH) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Constellium (CSTM) beats by $0.81, beats on revs; raises FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance
  • CoStar Group (CSGP) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; raises FY26 EPS above consensus
  • CTS Corp (CTS) announces first quarter 2026 results; narrows 2026 guidance
  • Deutsche Bank (DB) beats on top and bottom lines; provides FY26 outlook
  • Etsy (ETSY) misses by $0.01, beats on revs
  • Euronet (EEFT) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • ExlService (EXLS) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; raises FY26 EPS and revenue guidance
  • Expand Energy (EXE) beats by $0.22, beats on revs
  • Extra Space Storage (EXR) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 FFO in-line
  • F5 Networks (FFIV) beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; raises FY26 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Fair Isaac (FICO) beats by $1.61, beats on revs; raises FY26 guidance
  • Federal Signal (FSS) beats by $0.30, beats on revs; raises FY26 EPS and revenue guidance
  • FirstEnergy (FE) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Garmin (GRMN) beats by $0.24, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • GE HealthCare (GEHC) misses by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Generac (GNRC) beats by $0.47, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • General Dynamics (GD) beats by $0.43, beats on revs
  • General Dynamics (GD) raises FY26 guidance on conference call
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) beats by four pence, reports revs in-line; reaffrms FY26 guidance
  • Haleon plc (HLN) reports Q1 trading update; reaffirms FY26 outlook
  • Humana (HUM) beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS above consensus
  • IDEX Corp (IEX) beats by $0.23, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line; raises FY26 EPS and organic sales growth guidance
  • Ingersoll-Rand (IR) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Landstar System (LSTR) reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs
  • Lemonade (LMND) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line; raises FY26 revs in-line
  • Lennox Int’l (LII) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • Lithia Motors (LAD) beats by $0.46, reports revs in-line
  • Materion (MTRN) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • MGP Ingredients (MGPI) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Mondelez Int’l (MDLZ) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS and organic revenue guidance
  • Nabors Industries (NBR) beats by $0.95, beats on revs
  • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) beats by $0.06, beats on revs
  • NXP Semi (NXPI) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • OGE Energy (OGE) misses by $0.02, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Old Dominion (ODFL) beats by $0.09, beats on revs
  • Omnicom (OMC) beats by $0.08, beats on revs
  • ONEOK (OKE) misses by $0.08 and provides FY26 guidance
  • OneSpaWorld (OSW) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line; raises FY26 revs in-line
  • Parsons (PSN) beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Penske Auto (PAG) beats by $0.68, beats on revs
  • Phillips 66 (PSX) beats by $1.03, misses on revs
  • PPG Industries (PPG) misses by $0.41, misses on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • PROG Holdings (PROG) beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; raises FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • Regeneron Pharma (REGN) beats by $0.56, beats on revs; Reaffirms FY26 non-GAAP gross margin guidance; New $3.0 bln share repurchase program authorized
  • RenaissanceRe (RNR) beats by $2.47, misses on revs
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) misses by $0.01, misses on revs
  • Sandoz (SDZNY) reports Q1 trading update; confirms guidane
  • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) beats by $0.52, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Seagate Tech (STX) beats by $0.59, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Sensata Tech (ST) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Silgan Holdings (SLGN) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line; raises FY26 EPS in-line
  • Silicon Motion (SIMO) beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs well above consensus
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line
  • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) beats by $0.21, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Starbucks (SBUX) beats by $0.07, beats on revs, Global comparable sales of +6.2%; raises FY26 EPS and Global and U.S. comparable sales growth guidance
  • Stride (LRN) beats by $0.38, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Teradyne (TER) beats by $0.45, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • T-Mobile US (TMUS) beats by $0.26, reports revs in-line
  • TotalEnergies SE (TTE) reports Q1 results; beats on revs; provides outlook; raises dividend
  • Tradeweb Markets (TW) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; Provides updated 2026 outlook
  • TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) misses by $0.12, beats on revs
  • UBS AG (UBS) beats on top and bottom lines
  • Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) beats by $0.59, beats on revs
  • Vale S.A. (VALE) reports Q1 results
  • Varonis Systems (VRNS) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Veralto (VLTO) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; raises FY26 EPS above consensus
  • Verisk Analytics (VRSK) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Visa (V) beats by $0.21, beats on revs
  • Vulcan Materials (VMC) beats by $0.25, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EBITDA guidance
  • Waste Mgmt (WM) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • Welltower (WELL) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO above consensus
  • Werner Enterprises (WERN) beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line
  • Wingstop (WING) beats by $0.15, misses on rev
  • W.P. Carey (WPC) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Yum! Brands (YUM) beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line
  • Yum China (YUMC) beats by $0.02, beats on revs

2026 APR 30

Pre-Market: AOS ADT APD AIN ALNY MO AME APG MT ATI AXTA BAX BDC BMY BR BC BLDR CWT CAH CARR CAT CCC CHKP CHH CNH CNX COP CRH CROX CFR DAR DTM DTE LLY ENTG FTV FTDR FCN GTX GIL GVA GPI HSY HGV HUBB H IDA ITW NSP IP ITGR ICE IDCC IRM JLL KIM KEX KYMR LHX LH LAUR LECO LKQ MLM MA MPT MRK TAP NMRK NNN NVCR OPCH PH PATK PBF PHIN PWR RCL SAIA SIRI SW SAH SO STGW SXC TROW FTI THC TXT CI TT TRS TNET TRN UPBD VLO VISN W WCC WTW XEL XRX XPO

After-Hours: AEM ALHC LNT AIG AMGN AAPL ATR ACA ARDX AJG TEAM AX BZH BIO SAM CPT CWST CLX CNO COHU COLM CORT CUBE DXCM DRH DLB EMN EHC EXPO FHI FSLR FIVN FND GDDY LOPE GDYN HR HUN ILMN IMAX INGM IRTC TREE LPLA MTZ MMSI MTX MHK MPWR NMIH PCRX PK KWR RDDT RMD RIOT RIVN RBLX ROKU RYAN RHP SNDK SNDR SEM SBGI SPSC SPXC SYK SKT TRUP TWLO OLED HCC WDC WY ZETA

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 8:30 ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%; prior 0.5%), advance Q1 GDP Deflator (Briefing.com consensus 3.3%; prior 3.7%), March Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior -0.1%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%), PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 0.4%), Core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%), Q1 Employment Cost Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%; prior 0.7%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 217,000; prior 214,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.821 mln)
  • 9:45 ET: April Chicago PMI (Briefing.com consensus 52.4; prior 52.8)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +103 bcf)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

It was a quiet night for me. I am licking my wounds and looking for an opening.
The markets seem to be in flux currently.

I am wondering how much longer the USN can keep up the blockade before international pressure starts getting serious.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)