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Daily Market Analysis – 20260428

DMA of 2026 APRIL 28 TUESDAY AMC.

The S&P 500 (-0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) did not extend their streak of record highs today as tech and mega-cap names faced some profit-taking after the recent stretch of leadership. There was some rotational activity into more defensive holdings and other parts of the market that helped the DJIA (-0.1%) close just below its flatline.

Weakness across semiconductor stocks weighed on the Nasdaq Composite in particular. After snapping an 18-session winning streak yesterday, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-3.6%) faced a steeper retreat today, exacerbated by a Wall Street Journal report indicating that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets, raising concerns about its ability to fund future computing needs.

NVIDIA (NVDA 213.07, -3.54, -1.63%) was a “magnificent seven” laggard, and Corning (GLW 153.05, -14.96, -8.90%) faced pressure after topping earnings estimates and issuing in-line guidance, though the stock had been on an impressive run-up into its earnings report this morning.

The top-weighted information technology sector (-1.3%) finished as the worst-performing S&P 500 sector.

Outside of the tech space, earnings were a key driver of price action. The materials sector (-1.1%) faced pressure as precious metals prices retreated, though Nucor (NUE 225.11, +10.11, +4.70%) delivered a solid earnings report while Sherwin-Williams (SHW 324.27, -11.83, -3.52%) moved lower after its own results. Coca-Cola (KO 78.35, +2.91, +3.86%) was a notable standout, contributing to strength in the defensive consumer staples sector (+1.0%), while Pentair (PNR 82.86, -9.41, -10.20%) was among the worst-performing S&P 500 components, weighing on the industrials sector (-0.9%).

Meanwhile, the energy sector (+1.7%) captured the widest gain as crude oil futures settled $3.56 higher (+3.7%) at $99.95 per barrel. Headlines surrounding U.S.-Iran talks were relatively quiet, though Reuters reported that the UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+.

All told, today’s session reflects some caution ahead of an eventful day tomorrow. The market will receive the latest FOMC decision, where the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, though investors will be closely focused on any commentary that could suggest whether a potential rate hike remains on the table. In addition, four “Magnificent Seven” companies are set to report earnings after the close, while mega-cap leadership showed signs of fatigue today, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF retreating 0.9%.

U.S. Treasuries of most tenors retreated for the second consecutive day while the long bond outperformed, recovering its opening loss.  The U.S. Treasury capped this week’s note auction slate with a weak sale of $44 billion in 7-year notes, but post-auction selling was short-lived. The 2-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.84%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.35%.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • Russell 2000: +11.1% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +6.1% YTD
  • S&P 500: +4.3% YTD
  • DJIA: +2.3% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed lower at 49142 (-0.05%). 
  • Nasdaq closed lower at 24664 (-0.90%). 
  • S&P 500 closed lower at 7139 (-0.49%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,129 mln vs avg. of 1,361 mln; NASDAQ 7,545 mln vs avg. of 9,133 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (524 mln/593 mln) and Nasdaq (2974 mln/4496 mln). 
  • Decliners led Advancers (NYSE 1184/1543; NASDAQ 1723/3094)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows (NYSE 73/21, NASDAQ 127/115).

After-Hours Action

US stock futures moved modestly higher on Wednesday as investors turned their focus to a fresh batch of big tech earnings and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement. Results due later in the day from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are expected to offer further clarity on the returns from their heavy artificial intelligence spending. In extended trading, shares of Starbucks, NXP Semiconductors, and Seagate Technology jumped on strong quarterly results, while Robinhood slid more than 9% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 earnings. During Tuesday’s regular session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.49% and 0.9%, respectively, while the Dow dipped 0.05%. Technology stocks led the declines following reports that OpenAI recently fell short of its own revenue and user growth targets. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged, in what is likely to be Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting before his term concludes in May.

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SIMO +18.6%, STX +16%, NXPI +15.8%, RSI +14.6%, BE +12.9%, VRNS +12%, FICO +11.8%, PRCH +9.9%, WERN +9%, EXLS +7.7%, VLTO +7.6%, ORN +6.4%, ESI +5.7%, V +5.5% (also authorizes new $20 bln share repurchase program), SBUX +5%, SLDE +4.7% (also authorizes new $100 mln share repurchase program), FFIV +3.9%, LSTR +3.6%, UCTT +2.4% (also CFO to retire), MDLZ +1.8%, CZR +1.5%, TMUS +1.4%, PPG +1.2%, ROG +1.2%, ST +1.1%, STAG +1.1%, UMBF +0.9% (also authorizes new 2 mln share repurchase program), EIX +0.7%, WELL +0.6%, WPC +0.5%, EXE +0.3%, HTO +0.3%, OHI +0.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: TWO +3.5% (amends merger agreement with CrossCountry Mortgage), PTCT +2.8% (topline results from PIVOT-HD study of Votoplam), VNO +2% (to purchase a 49% interest in Park Avenue Plaza), RDY +1.6% (Health Canada announces compliance for RDY‘s generic version of NVO‘s Ozempic), LW +1.6% (CFO bought 4556 shares worth ~$200K), HII +1.5% (awarded a $282.8 mln Navy contract), MET +0.8% (increases dividend), CHTR +0.8% (CEO and one Director bought 7,936 shares combined worth approx $1.4 mln), DOCN +0.4% (unveils AI-native cloud built for the inference era), NVO +0.2% (Health Canada announces compliance for RDY‘s generic version of NVO‘s Ozempic), RTX +0.1% (awarded a $206.2 mln Navy contract)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: OI -18.8%, RCKY -15.1%, MX -13.1%, ENPH -9.6% (also announces development of IQ Solid-State Transformer for AI data centers), HOOD -8.9%, CDNA -8.8% (also to acquire Naveris), TER -8.2%, NBR -5.8%, ACGL -4.7%, BKNG -4.5%, BXP -4.1%, ATEN -4%, LRN -3.7%, RBBN -3.5% (also names new CFO), CSGP -3.4%, OPK -3.3%, MIR -2.8%, EXR -2.4%, FE -2.2%, MKL -1.9%, ASH -1.8%, IR -1.1%, NOG -1.1%, UNM -1.1%, ARI -1.1%, EQR -1%, RNR -0.5%, WM -0.3%, DBRG -0.3%, NEO -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CDNA -8.8% (files mixed securities shelf offering), BF.A -2.9% (terminates merger discussions with Pernod Ricard), TRI -1% (shareholders approved capital plan), FSK -0.2% (reschedules Q1 earnings release), DIS -0.2% (not planning to spin off ESPN, according to Business Insider)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries of most tenors retreated for the second consecutive day while the long bond outperformed, recovering its opening loss. The Treasury complex faced pressure from the start with shorter tenors leading the weakness after crude oil continued its climb during the overnight session, returning to $100/bbl. On a related note, inflation expectations in Japan and the eurozone increased significantly due to the price of oil remaining at a high level. Despite the lower start, the market spent the first 90 minutes in a steady rise, but the bounce found resistance shortly after Treasuries climbed above their opening levels. The long bond showed mid-morning resilience, taking the lead during another bounce that returned it to little changed while shorter tenors climbed above their opening levels, but still finished in the red. The U.S. Treasury capped this week’s note auction slate with a weak sale of $44 bln in 7-yr notes, but post-auction selling was short-lived. Crude oil finished the day just below $100/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% to 98.63, inching back above its 200-day moving average (98.53).

Yields

  • 2-yr: +4 bps to 3.84%
  • 3-yr: +4 bps to 3.87%
  • 5-yr: +4 bps to 3.98%
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.35%
  • 30-yr: UNCH at 4.94%

CURRENCIES

The US dollar index steadied around 98.6 on Wednesday after experiencing increased volatility earlier in the week, as markets positioned for the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, which is expected to be Chair Jerome Powell’s final one before his term ends in May. The Fed is broadly anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged, with investors closely watching how policymakers assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. Several other major central banks, including those in the EU, the UK, and Canada, are also set to announce policy decisions this week, while the BOJ delivered a hawkish hold on Tuesday. At the same time, stalled US-Iran negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz have intensified inflation concerns, supporting demand for the safe-haven dollar. President Donald Trump was reportedly dissatisfied with Tehran’s latest proposal, insisting that nuclear-related issues be addressed from the outset of any agreement.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: -0.1% to 1.1714
  • GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.3519
  • USD/CNH: +0.2% to 6.8382
  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 159.59

Pound Slightly Down as US-Iran Talks Stall
The pound edged lower to $1.35 as the US-Iran impasse continues and domestic political pressures weigh on markets. Tensions intensified after a US official revealed President Donald Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest proposal, which sought to delay nuclear program negotiations until the ongoing conflict and shipping disputes are resolved. In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a pivotal vote on Tuesday over whether to investigate his assurances to Parliament regarding the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. While Starmer’s allies remain confident of securing the vote, the controversy risks overshadowing next week’s crucial local elections. Investors are also focused on the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday, with the central bank widely expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% amid the Middle East crisis. Analysts anticipate a near-unanimous or strong majority vote to maintain the current stance.

Euro Steady Near Two-Week Low Ahead of Key Data
The euro hovered around $1.17, close to last week’s two-week lows, as investors grappled with the fallout from stalled US-Iran negotiations and braced for a wave of pivotal economic data. This week’s releases include Eurozone inflation and GDP figures, alongside key global interest rate decisions. Market caution intensified after the European Central Bank reported a sharp rise in inflation expectations for March, compounded by reports that US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to postpone nuclear negotiations until the conflict and shipping disputes are resolved. On the monetary policy front, the ECB is expected to hold rates steady at its Thursday meeting, adopting a cautious stance amid the Middle East crisis. However, further tightening remains on the table, with markets anticipating at least two quarter-point rate hikes in 2026.

Yen Gains on Hawkish BOJ Hold
The Japanese yen strengthened to around 159 per dollar on Tuesday before trimming gains, after the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% for a fourth straight meeting, in line with expectations. The central bank also raised its inflation outlook while lowering its FY2026 growth projections to reflect the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. Notably, three of the nine policy board members backed a rate hike, highlighting rising concern over inflationary pressures linked to the Iran war. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to a gradual tightening path, signaling that interest rates could continue to rise as economic, price, and financial conditions evolve. Separately, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities remain ready to intervene in currency markets at any time to support the yen.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude futures held above $110 per barrel and WTI crude futures held above $99 per barrel on Wednesday after gaining more than 3% in the prior session, supported by mounting uncertainty around global supply as US-Iran peace talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed. President Donald Trump said Iran has urged the US to lift its naval blockade of the strait while negotiations to end the conflict continue, with disruptions already constraining energy flows from the Middle East. The shutdown of this vital corridor has halted roughly 20% of global oil shipments, triggering what the IEA called the largest supply shock on record. At the same time, the US intensified pressure on Iran through additional measures, including potential sanctions on Chinese refiners linked to Tehran and on countries paying transit fees to secure passage through Hormuz. Elsewhere, the ongoing conflict has prompted the UAE to announce its exit from OPEC next month for greater flexibility in adapting to shifting market conditions.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at $11.34

Commodities

  • Crude Oil +3.56 @ 99.95
  • Nat Gas +0.01 @ 2.55
  • Gold -86.80 @ 4607.80
  • Silver -1.63 @ 73.34
  • Copper -0.05 @ 5.97

Gold Holds Decline on Inflation Worries
Gold hovered below $4,600 an ounce on Wednesday after dropping nearly 2% in the previous session to a one-month low, as stalled US-Iran peace talks and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz fueled concerns over rising inflation. President Donald Trump said Iran has called on the US to lift its naval blockade of the strait while negotiations to end the conflict continue, with disruptions already tightening energy supplies from the Middle East. The shutdown of this key passage has cut off roughly 20% of global oil flows, sparking what the IEA described as the largest supply shock on record and intensifying inflationary pressures. Investors have increasingly priced in the possibility that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer or even tighten further, weighing on non-yielding bullion. Earlier this week, the BOJ left its policy rate unchanged, while central banks in the US, EU, the UK, and Canada are due to announce their decisions later this week.

Copper Drops for a 4th Session
Copper futures in the US were near $5.91 per pound, dropping for a fourth session since testing record highs at $6.12 on April 22nd as the lack progress between Iran and the US in their conflict pressed the outlook on global manufacturing. The exchange of hawkish remarks between both delegations also supported the dollar in the period, pressing the purchasing power for foreign buyers of industrial metals. Still, prices remained relatively close to historical peaks as the conflict also dented supply for copper in the near term. Top producer Chile had its supply under threat as the war in the Middle East halted supplies of sulphur to China, driving China to halt the exports of sulphuric acid that are essential half of Chile’s copper refining. On top of that, major tech companies continued to sign agreements that exponentially increase datacenter construction across major manufacturing centers, supporting the outlook for copper due to its utility in electrification and grid technology.

Silver Holds Decline on Inflation Worries
Silver traded near $73 an ounce on Wednesday after dropping more than 3% in the previous session, as stalled US-Iran peace talks and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz fueled concerns over rising inflation. President Donald Trump said Iran has called on the US to lift its naval blockade of the strait while negotiations to end the conflict continue, with disruptions already tightening energy supplies from the Middle East. The shutdown of this key passage has cut off roughly 20% of global oil flows, sparking what the IEA described as the largest supply shock on record and intensifying inflationary pressures. Investors have increasingly priced in the possibility that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer or even tighten further, weighing on non-yielding precious metals. Earlier this week, the BOJ left its policy rate unchanged, while central banks in the US, EU, the UK, and Canada are due to announce their decisions later this week.

Baltic Dry Index Rises for 2nd Day
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was up for a second session on Tuesday, adding 11 points to 2,677 points, driven by gains across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, advanced 22 points to 4,304 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, increased 9 points to 1,966 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index went up 2 points to 1,542 points.

Palm Oil Trades Below MYR 4,500
Malaysian palm oil futures continued to slip, hovering below MYR 4,500 per tonne and nearing a one-week low, pressured by a stronger ringgit and weakness in Dalian soyoil. Sentiment was further weighed by softer export demand, with cargo surveyors noting shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for April 1–25 dropped between 15.7% and 16.8% from the prior month, reflecting a post-festive slowdown. Caution also persisted ahead of China’s upcoming official PMI release, which could provide clearer signals on demand conditions in a key importing market. However, losses were capped by firmer soyoil prices on the Chicago exchange. Rising crude oil prices, driven by stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks and mounting supply concerns, also offered support. In top buyer India, purchases are expected to recover after imports fell 19% mom in March. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council sees prices holding above MYR 4,500 in the near term, supported by high energy costs and potential El Niño risks.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly lower showing on Tuesday.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: -1.0%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.0%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.2%,
  • India’s Sensex: -0.5%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +0.4%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.6%.

In news:

  • China’s National Development and Reform Commission blocked Meta’s planned $2 bln acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus.
  • The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 0.75%, as expected, though three out of nine policymakers voted for a hike.
  • The central bank lowered its domestic growth forecast for the year to 0.5% from 1.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 2.5-3.0% from 1.9-2.0%.
  • Moody’s raised China’s outlook to Stable from Negative.

In economic data:

  • Japan’s March jobs/applications ratio 1.18, as expected (last 1.19) and March Unemployment Rate 2.7% (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%). February BoJ Core CPI 2.5% yr/yr (last 2.2%)
  • Hong Kong’s March trade deficit $89.1 bln (last deficit of HKD64.2 bln). March Imports 41.2% m/m (last 29.9%) and Exports 35.8% m/m (last 24.7%)

Major European indices trade near their flat lines while Spain’s IBEX (+0.7%) and Italy’s MIB (+0.9%) outperform.

  • STOXX Europe 600: UNCH,
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.2%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.2%,
  • France’s CAC 40: UNCH,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.9%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.7%.

In news:

  • The European Central Bank released its Consumer Expectations survey for March, showing a jump in year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.0% from 2.5% while the three-year outlook increased to 3.0% from 2.5%.
  • The survey also showed that the economy is expected to contract by 2.1%, down from the previous forecast for a contraction of 0.9%.
  • Barclays reported good results for Q1 and reaffirmed its guidance while BP reported strong results.

In economic data:

  • Italy’s February Industrial Sales 0.6% m/m (last -0.2%); 0.5% yr/yr (last -0.8%). March PPI 4.4% m/m (last -0.4%); 4.2% yr/yr (last -2.7%)
  • Spain’s Q1 Unemployment Rate 10.83% (expected 9.80%; last 9.93%) and March Retail Sales 4.1% yr/yr (last 2.3%)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • February FHFA Housing Price Index 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.1%
  • February S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%); Prior 1.2%
  • April Consumer Confidence 92.8 (Briefing.com consensus 89.2); Prior was revised to 92.2 from 91.8
    • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer attitudes were helped in April by perceptions of the labor market and income expectations.
  • A U.S. official says President Trump is not satisfied with Iran’s proposal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz because it delays nuclear negotiations to a later date (USO, XLE), Reuters
  • Iran is trying to find more ways to store oil, hoping to avoid a damaging production shutdown as the U.S. blockade stops its exports, WSJ
  • The first liquefied natural gas tanker travels through the Strait of Hormuz since war began, Bloomberg
  • Foreign automakers might pull the least expensive vehicles from U.S. market if USMCA trade deal is not extended, WSJ
  • Australia wants to charge large technology companies a 2% levy unless they agree to deals with local news media companies, Reuters
  • U.S. intelligence agencies studying how Iran would react if President Trump declares victory in the war, according to Reuters
  • China to begin exporting jet fuel, diesel and gasoline, according to FT
  • Iran expected to present a revised peace plan to U.S. soon, according to CNN
  • PolyMarket wants CTFC approval to bring its main exchange to U.S., according to Bloomberg
  • U.S. wants chip equipment makers to stop shipments to Hua Hong, according to Reuters
  • Iran’s economy has already been battered and could get worse amid U.S. blockade; Iranian leaders still think it can endure pain longer than President Trump, according to AP
  • FDA also confirms two major steps as part of an initiative to advance the implementation of real-time clinical trials; The agency will accept comments on the RFI until May 29, 2026
  • Acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine to leave her position amid differences with President Trump, according to FT

Dallas Fed Business Activity Slows Decline
The general business activity index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas edged up to -9.9 in April 2026 from a near one-year low of -13.3 in March, though overall perceptions of business conditions remain weak. The revenues index increased 3 points to 4.3. Meanwhile, selling and input price pressures increased, rising to 8.3 and 31.2 respectively. Labor market measures remain unchanged, while wage and benefits index declined 5 points to 7.7. Looking ahead, general business activity sentiment improved. The company outlook index rose 5 points to -5 and the uncertainty index edged down 2 points to 24.8.

US Fifth District Manufacturing Unexpectedly Rebounds
The Federal Reserve’s Fifth District manufacturing index rose by 3 points from the previous month to 3 in April of 2026, contrasting with market expectations of a contraction in activity at -5 to reflect the first improvement since February of last year. The result was aligned with other leading indicators for the period as the goods producing sector is showing a degree of resilience to soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions from the war in the Middle East. The gauge measuring new orders rose further (8 vs 4 in March), even though shipments held their slight drop (unchanged at -2). Meanwhile, local business conditions improved (10 vs -5), driving firms to halt the drop in their employment levels (0 vs -2). Prices paid for inputs rose further (6.4 vs 6.11), although prices charged slowed (4.73 vs 4.85). Looking ahead, the outlook slowed for shipments (21 vs 26) and new orders (26 vs 30).

US Fifth District Services Stay Resilient
The Fifth District Service Sector Activity remained relatively solid in April, as the revenues index held steady at 9, while the demand index eased to 10 from 21 but stayed in positive territory, pointing to continued expansion. Expectations remained strong, with forward-looking indexes for both revenues and demand firmly positive. The local business conditions index slipped to -6 from 2, while the outlook index edged down slightly to 6. Employment conditions softened modestly, with the current index falling to 6 from 9, though the forward-looking measure rose to 25, signaling hiring optimism. Wage growth remained stable, and firms continued to expect increases, while price pressures picked up slightly but are seen easing ahead.

US Home Price Growth Slows to Weakest Pace Since 2023
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose just 0.9% year-over-year in February 2026, down from 1.2% in January and below market forecasts of 1.1%. This marks the slowest annual growth since July 2023, highlighting the ongoing cooldown in the US housing market. For the ninth straight month, inflation outpaced home price appreciation, prolonging the streak of negative real home price returns. Over half of major US metro areas saw year-over-year price declines in February, with Denver (-2.2%) overtaking Tampa (-2.1%) as the weakest market, while Los Angeles (-0.8%) and Washington (-0.1%) also joined the list of decliners. On the other hand, Chicago led gains at 5%, followed by New York (4.7%) and Cleveland (4.2%). “Mortgage rates near 6% continue to weigh on affordability and transaction activity, holding nominal price growth below inflation,” said Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

US House Prices Unchanged in February: FHFA
US single-family home prices backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were unchanged in February 2026, after four consecutive months of rises, and missed market expectations of a 0.2% increase. For the nine census divisions, home price changes ranged from -1.1% in the Mountain division to +0.6% in the South Atlantic division. Year-over-year, house prices rose 1.7% in February. The 12-month changes ranged from -0.7% in the Mountain division to +4.2% in the Middle Atlantic division.

US Private-Sector Job Growth Steadies in Early April
US private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending April 11, 2026, according to the ADP Research Institute, slightly below the downwardly revised 40,250 weekly gain in the prior period. The data suggests a stabilization in hiring momentum following an acceleration in job creation during the second half of March.

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • Airbus (EADSY) reports Q1 results; 2026 guidance unchanged
  • Alexandria RE (ARE) reports FFO in-line, misses on revs; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Allegion (ALLE) misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, guides FY26 revs in-line; announces buyback
  • AllianceBernstein (AB) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs
  • American Tower (AMT) beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Amkor (AMKR) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Anglo American (NGLOY) reports Q1 production; reaffirms FY26 outlook
  • Applied Industrial (AIT) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line; raises FY26 revs outlook
  • ArcBest (ARCB) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line
  • Ares Capital (ARCC) misses by $0.01, misses on revs
  • Armstrong World Industries (AWI) misses by $0.12, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Asbury Automotive (ABG) misses by $0.25, misses on revs
  • AvalonBay (AVB) beats by $0.03; guides Q2 FFO below consensus
  • Avery Dennison (AVY) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line
  • Barclays PLC (BCS) reports Q1 results; provides FY26 and FY28 targets; announces £500 mln buyback
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beats by $0.04, beats on revs
  • BP (BP) beats by $0.20, beats on revs
  • Brixmor Property (BRX) reports FFO in-line, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Brown & Brown (BRO) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line
  • Cadence Design (CDNS) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • CECO Environ. (CECO) beats by $0.21, beats on revs; raises FY26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance
  • Celestica (CLS) beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • Centene (CNC) beats by $1.14, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • Central Bancompany (CBC) reports first quarter 2026 results
  • Cincinnati Fincl (CINF) beats by $0.15, beats on revs
  • CMS Energy (CMS) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Coca-Cola (KO) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; provides Q2 and FY26 guidance
  • Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP) reports Q1 trading update; reaffirms FY26 outlook
  • Commvault Systems (CVLT) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides FY27 revs in-line
  • COPT Defense Properties (CDP) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 FFO in-line; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Corning (GLW) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Crane (CR) beats by $0.20, beats on revs; raises FY26 adjusted EPS guidance
  • Crown (CCK) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS mostly below consensus; reaffirms FY26 EPS in-line
  • Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • Ecolab (ECL) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Embraer SA (EMBJ) discloses Q1 backlog and deliveries data
  • Enterprise Products (EPD) misses by $0.03, beats on revs
  • First Commonwealth (FCF) misses by $0.03, reports revs in-line
  • Franklin Electric (FELE) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Franklin Resources (BEN) beats by $0.16, beats on revs
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY) beats by $0.27, beats on revs
  • General Motors (GM) beats by $1.10, reports revs in-line; raises FY26 EPS in-line
  • Herc Holdings (HRI) beats by $0.42, beats on revs
  • Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Hilton (HLT) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus
  • Hope Bancorp (HOPE) beats by $0.01, misses on revs
  • Incyte (INCY) beats by $0.49, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Itron (ITRI) beats by $0.25, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
  • JetBlue Airways (JBLU) misses by $0.14, reports revs in-line; Sees Q2 RASM up 7-11%; Announces actions to mitigate increased fuel costs
  • Kforce (KFRC) beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Kilroy Realty (KRC) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO above consensus
  • Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs above consensus
  • Kimberly-Clark (KMB) beats by $0.04, beats on revs
  • Lending Club (LC) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • LGI Homes (LGIH) beats by $0.22, misses on revs
  • Newegg Commerce (NEGG) announces fiscal year 2025 results
  • Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) beats by $0.05; approved $50 mln share repurchase program
  • Novartis AG (NVS) misses by $0.11, misses on revs; reaffirms FY26 outlook
  • NOV Inc. (NOV) misses by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs below consensus
  • Nucor (NUE) beats by $0.41, beats on revs; seeing strong demand across key end markets
  • Omnicell (OMCL) beats by $0.22, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • PACCAR (PCAR) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs
  • Pentair (PNR) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • PJT Partners (PJT) beats by $0.01, beats on revs
  • Polaris Industries (PII) beats by $0.52, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Public Storage (PSA) beats by $0.10, misses on revs; reaffirms FY26 FFO guidance
  • Qiagen (QGEN) sees Q1 EPS in line; sees Q1 revs below consensus; provides Q2 and FY26 guidance
  • S&P Global (SPGI) beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Sanmina (SANM) beats by $0.76, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; announces buyback
  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) beats by $0.26, beats on revs
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; reaffirms outlook
  • Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) misses by €0.06, misses on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line; also annonces $250 mln enhanced share repurchase program; also names new COO
  • Spotify (SPOT) beats by €0.50, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs in-line
  • Stepan Company (SCL) beats by $0.06, misses on revs
  • Sun Communities (SUI) beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 FFO below consensus; raises FY26 FFO in-line
  • Sysco (SYY) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • Sysco (SYY) on call reaffirms FY26 revs in the range of $84-$85 mln vs. FactSet Consensus of $84.43 bln
  • TransUnion (TRU) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus
  • Universal Health (UHS) beats by $0.21, beats on revs
  • UPS (UPS) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Ventas (VTR) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; raises FY26 FFO guidance
  • Volaris Aviation (VLRS) misses on top and bottom lines; provides Q2 guidance
  • Watsco (WSO) beats by $0.17, beats on revs; also to acquire Jackson Supply, one of the Sunbelt’s largest HVAC distributors
  • WPP plc (WPP) reported Q1 revs of GBP 3.03 bln vs. GBP 2.98 bln FactSet consensus; provides FY26 guidance
  • Xylem (XYL) beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; raises FY26 EPS guidance

2026 APR 29

Pre-Market: ABBV AER AGIO APH ADP AVTR CAR AVT BLCO BIIB BLKB EAT BIP BG CNI CRS GIB CHEF CLVT CTSH CBU CSTM DAN EME ETR ETSY EEFT EVR EXTR FSS FVRR GRMN GEHC GNRC GD GSK HAYW HUM IEX IONS LMND LII LAD LXP MTRN MGPI NAVI OGE ODFL OSW PSN PAG PSX PRG PUMP PB REGN SMG SLGN SITE SOFI SWK TEVA COCO TW UMC VRSK VIRT VMC WING YUMC YUM

After-Hours: ACHC AFL AGI ALGN ALKT ALL GOOG AMZN AFG AWK AM AR AXS BHE CHRW CWH CP CVNA CBZ CAKE CMG CNMD CLB CUZ CVI DK EBAY EIG EQIX ETD EG FIBK FLS FMC F FORM FCPT FTAI GFL GKOS GRBK THG PI IRT INVH MAT MAX META MEOH MTG MGM MSFT MAA MC MUSA MYRG NFG NTGR NWE ORLY PPC PLXS PRCT PFS QTWO QCOM RRR REG SBRA SBAC SCI SFM TDOC TENB

THE WEEK AHEAD

WEEK 18: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, APRIL 27 to MAY 01

According to the PTSD*, Week 18 has FIVE trading days and is the FIRST trading week in MAY 2026. The next Expiration Friday is MAY15. The next Market Holiday is on MONDAY MAY25. April is the last of the “6 months of bullishness” on the SPX; giving way to May, and the reversal. Week 18 marks the start of earnings season, the beginning of “portfolio rebalancing”, and the “Sell in May and Go Away” mindsets.
We also need to keep in mind that with the current POTUS, seasonals can easily go out of whack.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices for 2026 APRIL XX of Week 18 over a 21-year average are:

  • Dow Jones (DJIA): 71.4%
  • S&P 500 (SPX): 71.4%
  • NASDAQ (COMP): 81.0%
  • *Russell 2000 (RUT):  38.1%

*The RUT is not listed in the STA; several penguins with a slide ruler calculated the 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs  for 2026 APRIL XX of Week 18 over a 15-year average are:

  • DIA – (15yr Avg): 46.7%
  • SPY – (15yr Avg): 33.3%
  • QQQ – (15yr Avg): R26.7%
  • RUT – (15yr Avg):  53.3%

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 7.9%)
  • 8:30 ET: February and March Housing Starts (prior 1.487 mln) and Building Permits (prior 1.376 mln), March Durable Orders (prior -1.4%), Durable Orders ex-transport (prior 0.8%), March advance International Trade in Goods (prior NA), March advance Retail Inventories (prior NA), and March advance Wholesale Inventories (prior NA)
  • 10:00 ET: February and March New Home Sales (prior 587,000)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +1.93 mln)
  • 14:00 ET: April FOMC Decision (Briefing.com consensus 3.50-3.75%; prior 3.50-3.75%)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

I have been rather sick for the last week or so. I am back and better now.
Updates on the home front.
Monday night – I shut off the SPX IC at a terrible loss because the Call wing was broken and did not recover as expected. I have created some new rules for myself on SPX IC trades. Did not type this yesterday as an update.

Reflecting now, I was greedy and also afraid to cut losses when my losses were small. I will do better.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)