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WMO: Weekly Market Outlook (2026 Week 18|APR27 – MAY01)

WMO of MONDAY to FRIDAY, 2026 APRIL 27 to MAY 01

The stock market logged a choppy but resilient week, with the major indices holding near record levels amid a mix of strong mega-cap leadership, earnings-driven moves, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Early in the week, stocks showed some hesitation following mixed developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Concerns about a potential breakdown in talks drove oil prices higher and pressured equities, contributing to bouts of profit-taking after the market’s recent run. These dynamics were evident in sessions where early gains faded as crude spiked and headlines suggested rising tension, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to energy prices and geopolitical risk.

Despite that backdrop, the market repeatedly found support. A key turning point came with the extension of the ceasefire, which helped fuel a rally to fresh record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. That move was driven by concentrated strength in mega-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, with AI enthusiasm and strong earnings results powering gains.

However, leadership remained narrow. While the cap-weighted indices advanced, equal-weighted measures and the Dow lagged at times, reflecting uneven participation. Sector performance was mixed throughout the week, with strength in technology and energy offset by periodic weakness in health care, financials, and real estate.

Earnings reactions played a significant role in shaping daily action. Semiconductor stocks surged on upbeat results and outlooks, while some software and consumer names saw sharp declines following disappointing guidance or cautious commentary. This created a highly selective environment, where individual stock moves often diverged sharply.

Geopolitical headlines also contributed to intraday volatility, including brief selloffs tied to unverified reports that were later reversed. Meanwhile, oil prices remained elevated, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Overall, the major indices remained near highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both establishing new record highs.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • Russell 2000 YTD:+12.2% +0.4% for the week
  • S&P Mid Cap 400:+10.1% -0.1% for the week
  • Nasdaq Composite:+6.9% +1.5% for the week
  • S&P 500:+4.7% +0.5% for the week
  • DJIA:+2.4% -0.5% for the week

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Monday:

The stock market started the week on a subdued note following last week’s push to record highs, as mega-cap and tech names saw some profit-taking amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (flat) spent the session drifting modestly below their flatlines as investors reacted to mixed reports regarding the state of the next round of talks between the U.S. and Iran.

Stocks opened modestly lower in reaction to weekend developments that seemingly put the talks on hold, and moved to session lows shortly before midday after President Trump told Bloomberg that it is “highly unlikely” he will extend the current ceasefire if a deal is not reached this week.

However, the major averages quickly rebounded from their worst levels amid reports that delegates from both the U.S. and Iran will travel to Pakistan to engage in talks this week.

Crude oil futures settled today’s session $5.18 higher (+6.2%) at $89.40 per barrel. While the rise in oil prices coincided with a pullback in select areas of the market, particularly recent leaders, crude remained below the $90 per barrel mark, signaling a degree of stabilization.

Sector strength was mixed and variable throughout the session, though weakness across mega-cap and tech-heavy sectors kept the major averages from making a move into positive territory.

The communication services sector (-1.4%) was the worst performer, as Meta Platforms (META 670.91, -17.64, -2.56%) and Alphabet (GOOG 335.40, -4.00, -1.18%) provided poor mega-cap leadership, while Netflix (NFLX 94.83, -2.48, -2.55%) declined further and failed to attract buy-the-dip interest following disappointing Q2 guidance in last week’s earnings report.

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.7%) was another laggard, with Tesla (TSLA 392.49, -8.13, -2.03%) moving lower ahead of its own earnings release this week, while cruise lines and other oil-sensitive names retreated today.

Meanwhile, the information technology sector (flat) made a steady move higher throughout the afternoon, which saw it finish flat for the day. Intel (INTC 65.70, -2.80, -4.09%) was a notable laggard, but the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.5%) still managed a modest gain.

Elsewhere in the sector, computer hardware names such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 27.82, +1.38, +5.22%) and Dell (DELL 204.25, +7.70, +3.92%) outperformed, while solid gains across software stocks pushed the iShares GS Software ETF 1.4% higher.

Additionally, Apple (AAPL 273.05, +2.82, +1.04%) was a mega-cap standout.

Late improvements to the information technology sector helped both the major averages and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-0.4%) finish considerably improved from their worst levels, though it was not enough to extend the Nasdaq Composite’s winning streak, which was snapped after an impressive 13 sessions.

Elsewhere, strength was mixed, with five S&P 500 sectors posting modest gains.

The materials sector (+0.6%) captured the widest gain with Steel Dynamics (STLD 209.35, +9.03, +4.51%) finishing as one of the S&P 500’s top movers ahead of its earnings release, while the financials sector (+0.3%) was supported by broad strength.

The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.3%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.2%), reflecting solid participation under the surface.

All told, it was a relatively quiet Monday session. There was some renewed geopolitical uncertainty coming out of the weekend, but the market’s muted reaction suggests investors continue to view a more durable ceasefire as the base case, despite elevated near-term uncertainty. Growth stocks took a modest step back after a strong rally, but the major averages remain just below recent record highs. While the market continues to monitor U.S.-Iran developments, attention is set to shift more firmly toward earnings as reporting season ramps up this week, with investors looking for continued growth and forward guidance to sustain the recent momentum.

There was no economic data of note today.

U.S. Treasuries began the week on a slightly lower note with the market showing limited concern over a weekend speedbump on the path to a peace deal with Iran. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.72%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.25%.

Tuesday:

The stock market had a relatively busy day today, with a significant wave of earnings reports, continued geopolitical volatility, and a smattering of corporate headlines from some of the market’s largest companies giving investors plenty to assess. The market is also likely still digesting the scope of its recent push into record territory.

The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%), and DJIA (-0.6%) spent the first two hours or so of the session with solid gains before retreating as oil prices spiked amid reports that Iran may not send delegates to Pakistan for the next round of negotiations with the U.S. The 10-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire tomorrow, adding a heightened sense of uncertainty to the situation as President Trump has threatened renewed strikes against Iran if a deal is not struck. The market moved to session lows in the final hour of trading after CNBC reported that Iran will not attend talks in Pakistan unless the U.S. “abandons its threats,” and The Associated Press reported Vice President JD Vance called off his trip to Pakistan, where he was set to lead the U.S. side of negotiations.

Crude oil futures settled today’s session $2.40 higher (+2.7%) at $91.80 per barrel, with the bump giving investors pause after the recent rally to record highs signaled that markets may have largely looked past the conflict or already priced in a path toward de-escalation.

Participation was weak in the broader market, with only the energy sector (+1.3%) finishing in positive territory. The sector was supported by the increase in oil prices and a nice move from Halliburton (HAL 38.15, +1.47, +4.01%) after the company beat earnings expectations.

The top-weighted information technology sector (-0.2%) was a relative outperformer, though it could not maintain its modest gain in the final hour of the session. Software names posted another winning session, with Microsoft (MSFT 424.16, +6.09, +1.46%) a mega-cap standout amid a weak showing for the market’s largest names, and the iShares GS Software ETF advancing 0.5%.

Those gains were largely offset by weakness in Apple (AAPL 266.17, -6.88, -2.52%) after the company announced CEO Tim Cook will step down, with John Ternus set to take his place on September 1. NVIDIA (NVDA 199.88, -2.18, -1.08%) also charted a lower course.

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.5%) also moved into negative territory late in the session. Amazon (AMZN 249.91, +1.63, +0.66%) notched a modest gain after announcing an expanded partnership with Anthropic, highlighted by a potential $25 billion incremental investment and a commitment from Anthropic to spend over $100 billion on AWS over the next decade.

Elsewhere in the sector, homebuilders moved higher after D.R. Horton (DHI 162.20, +8.86, +5.78%) turned in a solid earnings report, while Tractor Supply (TSCO 39.57, -5.24, -11.69%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component after missing earnings estimates.

Earnings were a key driver of price action in the broader market, with most of today’s batch easily topping estimates. Northern Trust (NTRS 171.74, +12.75, +8.02%) was the best-performing S&P 500 component, while UnitedHealth (UNH 346.01, +22.53, +6.96%) was the top Dow component. However, several notable names beat estimates but issued softer guidance, resulting in sharp retreats today. Northrop Grumman (NOC 611.13, -45.85, -6.98%) and GE Aerospace (GE 286.73, -16.87, -5.56%) were examples of this trend, which weighed heavily on the industrials sector (-1.4%).

The real estate sector (-1.9%) faced the widest loss as treasury yields moved higher today.

Outside of the S&P 500, the smaller-cap Russell 2000 (-1.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) followed a similar trajectory to the major averages.

All told, today’s session underscored the challenges the market faces as it attempts to push deeper into record territory. While investors have largely looked past the U.S.-Iran conflict, it remains a potential source of volatility through its impact on oil prices and broader risk sentiment. More importantly, elevated energy costs could begin to pressure margins as earnings season comes into focus, making guidance critical in determining whether current growth expectations can hold.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Tuesday with shorter tenors extending their losses from Monday while the long bond reluctantly followed after holding its ground yesterday. The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.78%, and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.29%.

Reviewing today’s data:

  • March Retail Sales 1.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.6%, March Retail Sales, ex-auto 1.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.5%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that retail sales look great from a headline perspective, but higher gas prices and higher prices in general were the main drivers. Excluding gasoline sales, retail sales were up 0.6% month-over-month, which looks good, but remember retail sales are not adjusted for price changes. Accordingly, it becomes evident that the sales gains in March were driven more by higher prices than increased volume, which is a better indication of demand.
  • February Business Inventories 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior -0.1%
  • March Pending Home Sales 1.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 2.5% from 1.8%

Wednesday:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite started on higher ground today and held that higher ground throughout today’s session. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at their best levels of the day and with record closing highs. They did so, fortified by leadership from the tech stocks and specifically the mega-cap tech stocks, software stocks, and semiconductor stocks.

It was a concentrated rally effort, but because the market’s most influential sector was in a leadership position, the major indices looked better than breadth figures suggested.

To that end, advancers ended only slightly ahead of decliners at the NYSE but held a more comfortable lead at the tech-dominated Nasdaq.

Buying efforts today followed President Trump’s announcement that he will extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow its fractured leadership more time to come up with a unified proposal for securing a lasting ceasefire. The caveat is that Iran only has a short time to do so or it will face a resumption of bombing efforts.

Stocks were not rattled by this thought, yet oil prices ($93.01, +3.45, +3.9%) reflected some lingering nervousness about the unsettled state of affairs with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remaining a chokepoint for global energy supplies and goods.

The higher prices took some steam out of the broad market relief rally seen at the start of today’s trading. The information technology (+2.3%), communication services (+1.4%), and energy (+1.1%) sectors were the only sectors up more than 1.0%. Four sectors–real state (-0.7%), industrials (-0.2%), financials (-0.2%), and utilities (-0.2%)–finished lower.

The underperformance of the industrials sector was a bit surprising given how Boeing (BA 231.28, +12.12, +5.53%), GE Vernova (GEV 1126.01, +134.71, +13.59%), and Masco (MAS 73.95, +7.19, +10.77%) fared after their earnings reports, but weakness in the defense stocks and airline stocks dictated the sector bias. United Airlines (UAL 91.71, -5.42, -5.58%) was a focal point, falling sharply after it cut its full-year outlook due in large part to rising fuel costs.

Elsewhere, Adobe (ADBE 255.94, +8.76, +3.54%) set a good tone for continued bargain hunting in the software space after it announced a $25 billion share repurchase program, while the mega-cap stocks set a good tone for the market. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 84.06, +1.69, +2.05%) jumped 2.0%.

Tesla (TSLA 387.20, +0.78, +0.20%), which is reporting after today’s close, trailed the mega-cap cohort, which was led by Apple (AAPL 273.17, +7.00, +2.63%), Amazon (AMZN 255.36, +5.45, +2.18%), and Alphabet (GOOG 337.73, +7.26, +2.20%), which unveiled new chips to power next-gen agentic AI training and inference at scale.

There was no U.S. economic data of note today. The Treasury market ended the day roughly flat, battling back from early selling efforts with the help of a strong $13 billion 20-yr bond reopening.

Thursday:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted record closing highs yesterday. Today they advanced to new highs, but they were unable to retain that posture and closed the session with losses. The selling interest wasn’t acute at the index level. That was reserved mostly for individual stocks, but to be fair, so were big gains.

Some geopolitical headlines got the market stirred up at times today, but otherwise it was a day of modest attrition for the indices after a big run.

The opening was dictated by a mixed reaction to earnings reports since yesterday’s close. The S&P 500 information technology sector (-1.5%) was the main point of attraction in that regard. Texas Instruments (TXN 282.23, +45.92, +19.43%) led the semiconductor group to another win, whereas ServiceNow (NOW 84.94, -18.13, -17.59%) was knocked out of service after its earnings report, triggering a renewed fallout in the software stocks, which were also contending with a resumption of private-credit worries.

For the day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up 1.7%, and the iShares GS Software ETF (IGV 83.60, -5.14, -5.79%) was down nearly 6.0%.

Tesla (TSLA 373.60, -13.91, -3.59%) was another laggard of note, failing to benefit from its better-than-expected Q1 earnings result as investors focused instead on Elon Musk’s vague declaration that a very significant increase in capex is expected. The consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) felt the weight of losses in Tesla and most components, including lululemon athletica (LULU 141.66, -21.79, -13.33%), which named former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill as its new CEO. The stock’s reaction made it clear that investors weren’t impressed.

The S&P 500 utilities (+2.8%), industrials (+1.8%), consumer staples (+1.7%), and real estate (+1.3%) sectors delivered some impressive percentage gains in a down market, boosted by healthy gains in the likes of NextEra Energy (NEE 96.25, +6.25, +6.94%), Dover (DOV 228.15, +11.98, +5.54%), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP 28.53, +1.99, +7.50%), and Crown Castle (CCI 87.52, +1.51, +1.76%) following their earnings results.

The market hit an air pocket in the afternoon session amid reports that Iran’s speaker had resigned and that Iran’s air defenses were engaging hostile targets. Long story short, both reports were debunked, enabling the indices to recover most of what was lost in the knee-jerk selling that occurred after the initial reports.

A full recovery, though, was impeded by the underperformance of the mega-cap cohort and reservations about what could transpire overnight in the geopolitical arena.

WTI crude futures settled the session up 3.0% at $95.76/bbl. The 10-yr note yield was up three basis points to 4.32%.

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 increased by 6,000 to 214,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 212,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 11 increased by 12,000 to 1.821 million.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that there is nothing in the level of initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—that suggests the labor market is in a dire state.
  • The preliminary April S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI checked in at 54.0 vs. 52.3 prior.
  • The preliminary April S&P Global U.S. Services PMI checked in at 51.3 vs. 49.8 prior.

Friday:

It was another record-setting day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which were lifted by leadership from the mega-cap stocks and a blistering advance by the semiconductor stocks that was paced by Intel (INTC 82.57, +15.79, +23.64%) following its better-than-expected Q1 earnings report and outlook.

The strength of that leadership kept a bid in the information technology sector (+2.5%) throughout the session, which was enough, along with gains in the consumer discretionary (+1.4%) and communications services (+0.9%) sectors, to keep the market-cap-weighted indices afloat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.2%) languished with modest losses.

AI enthusiasm, momentum, performance chasing, and fundamental earnings strength were the tailwinds pushing the semiconductor stocks to record heights. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, led by Intel and NVIDIA (NVDA 208.26, +8.62, +4.32%), surged 4.3%, leaving it up 38.6% since the end of March.

NVIDIA was part of a mega-cap cohort that strengthened as the session progressed. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 84.22, +1.35, +1.63%) advanced 1.6% and closed near its best levels of the session, underpinned by added strength in Amazon (AMZN 263.99, +8.91, +3.49%), Meta Platforms (META 675.05, +15.90, +2.41%), Microsoft (MSFT 424.60, +8.85, +2.13%), and Alphabet A (GOOGL 344.40, +5.51, +1.63%).

These leadership stocks carried the day, which was also featured the DOJ dropping its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, earnings results from Procter & Gamble (PG 148.11, +2.40, +1.65%), and back-and-forth headlines touting the possibility of the U.S. and Iran meeting again this weekend in Pakistan.

It was still unclear as of this post if the two sides were going to actually meet or if they were going to be in Pakistan and use go-betweens to lay the groundwork for resuming ceasefire discussions. WTI crude futures, which flirted with $98.00/bbl at one point, settled the day down 1.4% at $94.42/bbl.

The stock market handled the uncertainty with a sense of resolve, much like it has since the initial ceasefire agreement was announced, clinging to the view that what comes next won’t be profoundly harmful to the global economy.

That point notwithstanding, there were pockets of weakness in today’s market. The health care sector (-1.4%) was plagued by losses in most components, but namely Eli Lilly (LLY 884.18, -33.47, -3.65%) and HCA (HCA 432.50, -41.53, -8.76%). The latter company reported earnings results that were tarnished by weaker-than-expected patient volumes.

Other laggards included the industrials (-0.9%), financials (-0.6%), consumer staples (-0.4%), real estate (-0.4%), and energy (-0.3%) sectors.

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week on a mostly higher note with shorter tenors pacing a Friday bounce that pressured yields from their highest levels in over two weeks. The 2-yr note yield, which is more sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, was down five basis points to 3.78%, while the 10-yr note yield ended down one basis point at 4.31%.

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April edged up to 49.8 (Briefing.com consensus: 47.6) from the preliminary (and record low) reading of 47.6. The final reading for March was 53.3. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 52.2.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that there was some slight improvement from the preliminary report as gas prices eased a bit following the ceasefire, yet gas prices are still much higher than where they were before the war began, which is contributing to the stark reality that consumer sentiment is near the trough seen in June 2022.

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week on a mostly higher note with shorter tenors pacing a Friday bounce that pressured yields from their highest levels in over two weeks. The trading day started on a slightly higher note with longer tenors showing early strength, but the entire complex faced some early selling that briefly drove yields toward yesterday’s highs. However, that initial bout of weakness was reversed quickly, returning 10s and 30s to their flat lines, where they remained into the afternoon, while shorter tenors reached their best levels in the early afternoon, holding onto their gains until the close. The market remained on the lookout for reports related to U.S.-Iran negotiations that will likely take place over the weekend but today did not see as many conflicting reports as yesterday. The New York Times reported in the afternoon that Iranian officials are looking to restart negotiations despite projecting a tough stance. There was some relief in the price of oil, which dipped back below $95/bbl, though WTI crude still gained nearly $10/bbl for the week. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 98.54, narrowing this week’s gain to 0.3%.

YIELD CHECK

  • 2-yr: -5 bps to 3.78% (+8 bps this week)
  • 3-yr: -4 bps to 3.80% (+8 bps this week)
  • 5-yr: -3 bps to 3.92% (+8 bps this week)
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.31% (+6 bps this week)
  • 30-yr: UNCH at 4.92% (+3 bps this week)

BOND YIELDS

Treasury Yields Little Changed
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.32% on Friday as traders continued to focus on developments in the Middle East. Al Jazeera reported that government sources indicated a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in US–Iran talks in Islamabad, with a delegation led by Iran’s Foreign Minister expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital tonight. In addition, US President Trump announced a three-week extension to the ceasefire in Lebanon, which was due to expire on Sunday. Meanwhile, traders also digested news that a probe of Fed Chair Powell s being dropped. Still, the benchmark yield is up about 7bps on the week, as the stalemate in US–Iran talks and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices and add to inflationary pressures, prompting traders to reassess the interest rate outlook. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged next week, with no further rate changes anticipated for the remainder of the year.

  • 3M: -1 bps at 3.69%
  • 2Y: +7 bps at 3.78%
  • 5Y: +8 bps at 3.92%
  • 10Y: +5 bps at 4.31%
  • 30Y: +3 bps at 4.91%

Only the 3M bond yield declined for the week. The 2Y/5Y/10Y/30Y all rose for the week, especially the shorter tenors.

EARNINGS

S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: April 24, 2026
Over one-quarter of the way through the earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting strong results. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. In addition, the index is reporting double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth for the 6th straight quarter.

Overall, 28% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2026 to date. Of these companies, 84% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 76%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 12.3% above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 7.3% and above the 10-year average of 7.1%. Historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

During the past week, positive EPS surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors (led by the Industrials, Information Technology, Health Care, and Materials sectors) were the largest contributors to the increase in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period. Since March 31, positive EPS surprises reported by companies in the Industrials, Financials, Communication Services, and Information Technology sectors, partially offset by downward revisions to EPS estimates for companies in the Energy sector, have been the largest contributors to the increase in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period.

As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the first quarter is 15.1% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 13.0% last week and an earnings growth rate of 13.1% at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

If 15.1% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index.

Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Information Technology, Materials, Financials, and Industrials sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy and Health Care sectors.

In terms of revenues, 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 70% and above the 10-year average of 67%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 2.0% above the estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 2.0% but above the 10-year average of 1.5%. Again, historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the first quarter is 10.3% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 10.0% last week and a revenue growth rate of 9.9% at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

During the past week, positive revenue surprises reported by companies in multiples sectors (led by the Health Care, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors) were the largest contributors to the increase in the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period. Since March 31, positive revenue surprises reported by companies in the Financials, Industrials, Health Care, and Information Technology sectors have been the largest contributors to the increase in the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period.

If 10.3% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022 (11.0%).

All eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology, Communication Services, and Financials sectors.

For Q2 2026 through Q4 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 20.6%, 22.7%, and 20.4%, respectively. For CY 2026, analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 18.6%.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.9, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9). This P/E ratio is also above the forward P/E ratio of 19.7 recorded at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

During the upcoming week, 180 S&P 500 companies (including 11 Dow 30 components) are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.

Q1 2026: Scorecard

01-sp500-earnings-above-inline-below-estimates-q1-2026
02-sp500-revenues-above-inline-below-estimates-q1-2026

Q1 2026: Growth

03-sp500-earnings-growth-q1-2026
04-sp500-revenue-growth-q1-2026

By John Buters | 2026 APRIL 24 | Factset.com

WEEK 18 EARNINGS CALENDAR

  • Monday (April 27)
    • Pre-Market: DPZ DEA NE VZ
    • After-Hours: ARE AMKR AMRZ AVB BBBY BRX BRO CDNS CLS CINF CDP CR CCK CTOS HLMN KFRC KRC LC NWBI NOV NUE PSA SANM SSD SUI UHS VTR
    Tuesday (April 28)
    • Pre-Market:  ALLE AB AMT AIT ARCB ARCC AWI ABG AVY BP CECO CNC CMS KO CVLT GLW CURB ECL EPD FCF FELE BEN GLXY GM HRI HLT HOPE INCY IVZ ITRI JBLU KMB KNSA LGIH NVS OMCL PCAR PNR PJT PII SPGI SHW SFD SPOT SCL SYY TRU UPS WSO XYL ZBH
    • After-Hours:  ATEN AKR ACGL APAM ASH NTB BE BKNG BXP CZR CDNA CSGP EIX ESI ENPH EQR ESS EXLS EXE EXR FFIV FICO FE GEF HIW IR LSTR MIR MDLZ NBR NEO NOG NXPI OI OHI OMC OKE OPK PEB PPG RNR RNST RBBN HOOD RSI SBCF STX ST SIMO SLDE STAG SBUX LRN TMUS TER TRMK UCTT UMBF UNM VRNS VLTO V WPC WM WBS WELL WERN
  • Wednesday (April 29)
    • Pre-Market: ABBV AER AGIO APH ADP AVTR CAR AVT BLCO BIIB BLKB EAT BIP BG CNI CRS GIB CHEF CLVT CTSH CBU CSTM DAN EME ETR ETSY EEFT EVR EXTR FSS FVRR GRMN GEHC GNRC GD GSK HAYW HUM IEX IONS LMND LII LAD LXP MTRN MGPI NAVI OGE ODFL OSW PSN PAG PSX PRG PUMP PB REGN SMG SLGN SITE SOFI SWK TEVA COCO TW UMC VRSK VIRT VMC WING YUMC YUM
    • After-Hours: ACHC AFL AGI ALGN ALKT ALL GOOG AMZN AFG AWK AM AR AXS BHE CHRW CWH CP CVNA CBZ CAKE CMG CNMD CLB CUZ CVI DK EBAY EIG EQIX ETD EG FIBK FLS FMC F FORM FCPT FTAI GFL GKOS GRBK THG PI IRT INVH MAT MAX META MEOH MTG MGM MSFT MAA MC MUSA MYRG NFG NTGR NWE ORLY PPC PLXS PRCT PFS QTWO QCOM RRR REG SBRA SBAC SCI SFM TDOC TENB
  • Thursday (April 30)
    • Pre-Market: AOS ADT APD AIN ALNY MO AME APG MT ATI AXTA BAX BDC BMY BR BC BLDR CWT CAH CARR CAT CCC CHKP CHH CNH CNX COP CRH CROX CFR DAR DTM DTE LLY ENTG FTV FTDR FCN GTX GIL GVA GPI HSY HGV HUBB H IDA ITW NSP IP ITGR ICE IDCC IRM JLL KIM KEX KYMR LHX LH LAUR LECO LKQ MLM MA MPT MRK TAP NMRK NNN NVCR OPCH PH PATK PBF PHIN PWR RCL SAIA SIRI SW SAH SO STGW SXC TROW FTI THC TXT CI TT TRS TNET TRN UPBD VLO VISN W WCC WTW XEL XRX XPO
    • After-Hours: AEM ALHC LNT AIG AMGN AAPL ATR ACA ARDX AJG TEAM AX BZH BIO SAM CPT CWST CLX CNO COHU COLM CORT CUBE DXCM DRH DLB EMN EHC EXPO FHI FSLR FIVN FND GDDY LOPE GDYN HR HUN ILMN IMAX INGM IRTC TREE LPLA MTZ MMSI MTX MHK MPWR NMIH PCRX PK KWR RDDT RMD RIOT RIVN RBLX ROKU RYAN RHP SNDK SNDR SEM SBGI SPSC SPXC SYK SKT TRUP TWLO OLED HCC WDC WY ZETA
  • Friday (May 1)
    • Pre-Market: AMG AON ARES ATMU AN BTSG CBOE CVX CHD CNK CL D EL XOM FRT GTES DINO HBM IMO LAZ LEA LIN LYB MGA MRNA NWL NVT OMF PWP PIPR POR PRLB TRP TEX TPG WNC WT XHR
      After-Hours: None

SEASONALS

WEEK 18: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, APRIL 27 to MAY 01

According to the PTSD*, Week 18 has FIVE trading days and is the FIRST trading week in MAY 2026. The next Expiration Friday is MAY15. The next Market Holiday is on MONDAY MAY25. April is the last of the “6 months of bullishness” on the SPX; giving way to May, and the reversal. Week 18 marks the start of earnings season, the beginning of “portfolio rebalancing”, and the “Sell in May and Go Away” mindsets.
We also need to keep in mind that with the current POTUS, seasonals can easily go out of whack.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices Week 18 over a 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs Week 18 – 15 year AVERAGE.

ANALYSIS

PUT/CALL RATIOS

Any reading above 1.00 is regarded as bearish.
As a common practice among professionals, it is worth noting that the big-money indicators are the Index and ETF Put/Call Ratios, while Equity Put/Call Ratios are mostly for novice/amateur participation.

VOLUMES

SHILLER PE RATIO

The Shiller PE Ratio, as of Fri 24 Apr, is at 40.66, 0.54% higher than the previous week of 40.44.

This is more than double of its mean (17.35) and its median (16.07). At this level, the ratio is above the middle between the historical high (44.19) and the mean or the median. The U.S. market printed its third highest Shiller PE Ratio in its history at 40.94 on 9 Jan 2026. The largest bubble remains as December 1999 at 44.19.

DAILY MONITORING TABLE (Last 5 Weeks)
There are 2 bearish convergent sessions and 1 bullish convergent session this week.
Over the last 5 weeks (24 trading sessions), there were 4 bearish convergent sessions, 12 bullish convergent sessions, and 8 divergent sessions (between the daily percentage changes and the market internals).

UVOL/DVOL and ADVANCES vs DECLINERS for NYSE and NASDAQ
While the SPX and Nasdaq closed at record highs, the ratios were more in favour of the Bears.

THE WEEK AHEAD

US Economic Releases

  1. Mon 27 Apr
    •  Nothing of note
  2. Tue 28 Apr
    • CB Consumer Confidence
  3. Wed 29 Apr
    • Federal Funds Rate
    • FOMC Statement
    • FOMC Press Conference
    • Building Permits
    • Housing Starts
  4. Thu 30 Apr
    • Advance GDP q/q
    • Advance GDP Price Index q/q
    • Core PCE Price Index m/m
    • Employment Cost Index q/q
    • Unemployment Claims
  5. Fri 1 May
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI
    • ISM Manufacturing Prices

International Releases

  1. Mon 27 Apr
    • JP: BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Outlook Report
  2. Tue 28 Apr
    • JP: BOJ Press Conference
    • AU: CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Trimmed Mean CPI m/m
  3. Wed 29 Apr
    • EU: German Prelim CPI m/m
  4. Thu 30 Apr
    • EU: German Prelim GDP q/q, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, ECB Press Conference
    • UK: BOE Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Official Bank Rate
    • JP: Tokyo Core CPI y/y
  5. Fri 1 May
    •  Nothing of note

Week Ahead
The potential for an agreement between Iran and the US, or concessions to restore trade ahead of potential talks, will continue to dictate the global economy as the conflict enters its eighth week. Attention will also be on US tech giants, set to update their views on AI spending guidance that has underpinned global stocks. The busiest week in this earnings season will host results from Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Meta, in addition to major global players in energy production, pharmaceuticals, mining, and fast-moving consumer goods. Also, the Fed will set interest rates in what is likely to be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Chairman. Policy decisions will also take place from the ECB, BoE, and BoJ. On the data front, Q1 GDP is due from the US and the Euro Area. Also, inflation reports are due from the Euro Area and Australia. In China, the focus will be on the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, while markets await for results from official and industry PMIs.

Americas
In the US, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% as it assesses inflation risks linked to surging oil prices and awaits confirmation of its new chair. Current Chair Powell is likely to maintain a cautious tone, signaling a pause in further rate cuts ahead of the end of his term on May 15. Next week also marks one of the busiest periods of the Q1 earnings season, led by mega-cap tech. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are set to report on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. Other notable earnings releases include Eli Lilly, Visa, Mastercard, Coca-Cola, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Merck, Amgen, Qualcomm, GM, Verizon, and AbbVie. On the economic front, the advance estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to show growth of 2.1%, a sharp pickup from 0.5% in Q4, although analysts point to temporary support from rebounding government spending and elevated software prices. The PCE report is projected to show core prices rising 0.3% mom in March, easing from 0.4% in February. Personal income is expected to rebound, while personal spending likely increased by 0.9%. Additional releases include housing starts, building permits, Case-Shiller home prices, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders, advance foreign trade and wholesale inventories, and the Q1 employment cost index. Regional indicators such as the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will also be closely watched. Elsewhere in the Americas, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% as it evaluates the economic impact of the Iran conflict, with Canada’s monthly GDP also in focus. Brazil’s central bank will announce its latest policy decision, while the country’s unemployment rate will be monitored. In Mexico, attention will be on Q1 GDP and trade balance figures.

Europe
Europe is set for a packed week, featuring major central bank decisions, key GDP releases, inflation data, and a wave of corporate earnings from banks, pharmaceutical firms, and energy companies. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their upcoming meetings. The ECB is likely to hold steady although further rate hikes remain possible in the months ahead. Recent remarks from ECB President Lagarde and board member Schnabel suggest a cautious, data-dependent approach before committing to additional tightening. Inflation in the Euro Area is expected to rise to 2.9% in April, the highest since December 2023, driven largely by energy costs, which are expected to climb into double-digit territory amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Preliminary inflation readings are also due from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. On the growth front, Q1 GDP estimates are expected to show modest expansion across the Euro Area, with overall growth at 0.2%. Germany and France are likely to post similar figures, while stronger growth in Spain (0.5%) may help offset weaker performance in Italy (0.1%). In the UK, analysts anticipate that the Bank of England will hold rates at 3.75%, with voting outcomes potentially ranging from unanimous support for no change to a more divided stance. Inflation data for March showed an uptick, largely due to higher fuel and heating costs. Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled a more cautious “wait-and-see” stance, warning that markets may be moving too quickly. Investors will also keep an eye on Germany’s GfK consumer confidence survey for further insight into regional sentiment. Earnings season will be in full swing. Key reports are expected from companies including Novartis and Linde, while the UK banking sector kicks off with results from Barclays, followed by Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group. In pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca and GSK will be closely watched, alongside consumer goods giant Unilever. Elsewhere in Europe, notable earnings are expected from Airbus, Air Liquide, TotalEnergies, Schneider Electric, BNP Paribas, Banco Santander, BBVA, and Iberdrola.

Asia Pacific
In China, investors will focus on both official and private PMI surveys, which are expected to signal a slowdown in manufacturing growth. Corporate profit data will also be released. Meanwhile, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee is scheduled to meet from April 27 to 30 to deliberate on key legislative priorities. In Japan, it will be a busy week, with attention centered on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% as policymakers assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation and growth. Key economic releases include the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain steady at 2.6%. Housing starts are projected to fall sharply by 28.5% in March, while industrial production likely rebounded by 1.1% month-on-month. Retail sales are expected to grow 0.8% year-on-year. In addition, consumer confidence likely edged lower, while core inflation in Tokyo is seen ticking up to 1.8%. In Australia, markets will closely monitor both monthly and quarterly inflation data, with the headline annual rate expected to rise to 4.7% from 3.7% in March. Other key releases include export and import price indices, private sector credit, quarterly producer prices, and commodity price trends. India will also release industrial production data. Elsewhere in the region, trade figures are due from Hong Kong, the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam. GDP readings are expected from Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, while central banks in Pakistan and Thailand are set to announce their latest monetary policy decisions.

By andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com | 2026 APRIL 24

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

Please stay hedged, my fellow penguins.
The markets closed this week in a Doji. The bullishness might not last for long.

  • Someone tried ‘taking pot shots’ at POTUS in the news tonight, Jets flew into US air defences and bombed their bases, ships are not moving – the war is still going on.
  • Bond yields are going up, and money is flowing out of bonds.
  • The PUT/CALL Ratios are showing some incoming red.
  • The volumes on the NYSE is showing a dip, while the NASDAQ is up.
  • We are moving into Earnings Season and “restructuring” time. I expect more volatility.

Stay Hedged, my Penguin Friends.

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)