A Penguin's Perspective

This is a cheese-loving, macroeconomic, pattern-trading penguin’s perspective of the markets and more.

Daily Market Analysis – 20260424

DMA of 2026 APRIL 24 FRIDAY AMC.

It was another record-setting day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which were lifted by leadership from the mega-cap stocks and a blistering advance by the semiconductor stocks that was paced by Intel (INTC 82.57, +15.79, +23.64%) following its better-than-expected Q1 earnings report and outlook.

The strength of that leadership kept a bid in the information technology sector (+2.5%) throughout the session, which was enough, along with gains in the consumer discretionary (+1.4%) and communications services (+0.9%) sectors, to keep the market-cap-weighted indices afloat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.2%) languished with modest losses.

AI enthusiasm, momentum, performance chasing, and fundamental earnings strength were the tailwinds pushing the semiconductor stocks to record heights. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, led by Intel and NVIDIA (NVDA 208.26, +8.62, +4.32%), surged 4.3%, leaving it up 38.6% since the end of March.

NVIDIA was part of a mega-cap cohort that strengthened as the session progressed. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 84.22, +1.35, +1.63%) advanced 1.6% and closed near its best levels of the session, underpinned by added strength in Amazon (AMZN 263.99, +8.91, +3.49%), Meta Platforms (META 675.05, +15.90, +2.41%), Microsoft (MSFT 424.60, +8.85, +2.13%), and Alphabet A (GOOGL 344.40, +5.51, +1.63%).

These leadership stocks carried the day, which was also featured the DOJ dropping its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, earnings results from Procter & Gamble (PG 148.11, +2.40, +1.65%), and back-and-forth headlines touting the possibility of the U.S. and Iran meeting again this weekend in Pakistan.

It was still unclear as of this post if the two sides were going to actually meet or if they were going to be in Pakistan and use go-betweens to lay the groundwork for resuming ceasefire discussions. WTI crude futures, which flirted with $98.00/bbl at one point, settled the day down 1.4% at $94.42/bbl.

The stock market handled the uncertainty with a sense of resolve, much like it has since the initial ceasefire agreement was announced, clinging to the view that what comes next won’t be profoundly harmful to the global economy.

That point notwithstanding, there were pockets of weakness in today’s market. The health care sector (-1.4%) was plagued by losses in most components, but namely Eli Lilly (LLY 884.18, -33.47, -3.65%) and HCA (HCA 432.50, -41.53, -8.76%). The latter company reported earnings results that were tarnished by weaker-than-expected patient volumes.

Other laggards included the industrials (-0.9%), financials (-0.6%), consumer staples (-0.4%), real estate (-0.4%), and energy (-0.3%) sectors.

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week on a mostly higher note with shorter tenors pacing a Friday bounce that pressured yields from their highest levels in over two weeks. The 2-yr note yield, which is more sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, was down five basis points to 3.78%, while the 10-yr note yield ended down one basis point at 4.31%.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • Russell 2000 YTD:+12.2%
  • S&P Mid Cap 400:+10.1%
  • Nasdaq Composite:+6.9%
  • S&P 500:+4.7%
  • DJIA:+2.4%

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed lower at 49231 (-0.16%). Nasdaq closed higher at 24837 (+1.63%). S&P 500 closed higher at 7165 (+0.80%). 
  • Action came on higher than average volume on Nasdaq but lower on NYSE (NYSE 1,060 mln vs avg. of 1,377 mln; NASDAQ 10,332 mln vs avg. of 9,142 mln)
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (501 mln/542 mln) and Nasdaq (7014 mln/3217 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 1514/1221; NASDAQ 2841/2006)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows (NYSE 112/17, NASDAQ 307/112).

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week on a mostly higher note with shorter tenors pacing a Friday bounce that pressured yields from their highest levels in over two weeks. The trading day started on a slightly higher note with longer tenors showing early strength, but the entire complex faced some early selling that briefly drove yields toward yesterday’s highs. However, that initial bout of weakness was reversed quickly, returning 10s and 30s to their flat lines, where they remained into the afternoon, while shorter tenors reached their best levels in the early afternoon, holding onto their gains until the close. The market remained on the lookout for reports related to U.S.-Iran negotiations that will likely take place over the weekend but today did not see as many conflicting reports as yesterday. The New York Times reported in the afternoon that Iranian officials are looking to restart negotiations despite projecting a tough stance. There was some relief in the price of oil, which dipped back below $95/bbl, though WTI crude still gained nearly $10/bbl for the week. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 98.54, narrowing this week’s gain to 0.3%.

Yields

  • 2-yr: -5 bps to 3.78% (+8 bps this week)
  • 3-yr: -4 bps to 3.80% (+8 bps this week)
  • 5-yr: -3 bps to 3.92% (+8 bps this week)
  • 10-yr: -1 bp to 4.31% (+6 bps this week)
  • 30-yr: UNCH at 4.92% (+3 bps this week)

CURRENCIES

The dollar index fell below 98.6 on Friday, paring an earlier rise, as traders continued to focus on developments in the Middle East. Al Jazeera reported that government sources indicated a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in US–Iran talks in Islamabad, with a delegation led by Iran’s Foreign Minister expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital tonight. In addition, US President Trump announced a three-week extension to the ceasefire in Lebanon, which was due to expire on Sunday. Still, the greenback is up about 0.7% on the week, its first weekly gain in three weeks, as the stalemate in US–Iran talks and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to support higher oil prices and add to inflationary pressures, prompting traders to reassess the interest rate outlook. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged next week, with no further rate changes anticipated for the remainder of the year.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.1719
  • GBP/USD: +0.5% to 1.3530
  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.8340
  • USD/JPY: -0.1% to 159.44

Pound Rises on US-Iran Talk Hopes
The pound climbed toward $1.35, rebounding from two-week lows, supported by cautious optimism over US-Iran peace negotiations combined with signs of rising inflation and robust consumer demand. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected in Islamabad tonight, with Pakistani sources indicating a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in US-Iran talks. Adding to the upward pressure, UK businesses now expect CPI inflation to hit 4% in the year ahead, up from 3.5% in March, according to the Bank of England’s Decision Maker Panel. Meanwhile, UK retail sales rose by 0.7% last month, surpassing expectations, largely driven by motorists stocking up on petrol amid soaring prices linked to the conflict in Iran. The data has intensified expectations for Bank of England rate hikes, with markets fully pricing in two quarter-point increases in 2026 and assigning a probability to a third by year-end.

Russian Ruble Strengthens to 3-Year High
The Russian ruble hovered around the 75 per USD level in April, its strongest in three years, amid support from higher energy prices and elevated interest rates by the Bank of Russia. Oil and gas prices held their surge as the US and Iran prolonged their blockades of commercial vessels trough the Strait of Hormuz, supporting demand for alternative sources of oil and natural gas. On top of that, the US suspended selected sanctions on Russian oil to alleviate the global supply crunch. Not only did the developments support foreign exchange inflows from oil exporters, but a portion of energy exports are being negotiated in rubles as the Russian financial system is excluded from dollar-denominated transactions. The initial plunge in the currency following the outbreak of the Iran conflict drove Russia’s government to stop buying foreign exchange with energy revenues to fill its war chest. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia signaled it may be done cutting rates as pro-inflationary risks remain.

Euro Rebounds Above $1.17 on US-Iran Talk Hopes
The euro climbed back above $1.17, attempting to rebound from two-week lows, as renewed optimism surrounded potential progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight, according to Al-Jazeera, which cited Pakistani government sources suggesting a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in the talks between the US and Iran. Investors are also focusing on the upcoming April European Central Bank policy meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to maintain interest rates. The ECB is taking a wait-and-see stance to evaluate the impact of recent macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments, particularly the Middle East conflict, against its earlier forecasts. Despite this cautious approach, money markets are fully pricing in two quarter-point rate hikes for 2026, with a chance of a third increase by the end of the year.

Offshore Yuan Set for Weekly Decline
The offshore yuan weakened past 6.83 per dollar on Friday, heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks, as the greenback continued to strengthen amid little sign of easing in Middle East tensions. President Trump ordered a “shoot and kill” against Iranian boats allegedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, injecting fresh volatility into energy markets. Surging crude costs are already feeding through supply chains, prompting some Chinese exporters to raise prices to offset higher fuel and raw material expenses. In March, several consumer goods categories recorded notable annual costs increases, reversing a prolonged period of relative price stability. Despite these headwinds, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the yuan’s broader trajectory, noting that China’s substantial domestic energy reserves, along with signs of a steady economic recovery, could help anchor the currency and limit sustained depreciation pressure.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude futures traded around $105.7 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures eased to $94.7 per barrel on Friday, snapping a four-day winning streak, after the White House said it would send envoys to Pakistan, where Iranian officials are also expected, raising tentative hopes that stalled US-Iran talks could resume and eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran struck a cautious tone, with reports suggesting no formal talks are currently scheduled during Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit. The prospect of diplomacy reduced some of the geopolitical premium built into prices earlier in the week. Still, WTI added 13% during the week, the most since early March, as the key shipping route stays largely closed. The ongoing US naval blockade continues to restrict Iranian crude exports and remains a major obstacle to progress. Analysts note that even if the strait reopens, oil flows could take months to normalize, keeping supply tight and maintaining pressure on global energy markets.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at $8.97

Commodities

  • Crude Oil -1.34 @ 94.42
  • Nat Gas -0.10 @ 2.52
  • Gold +16.80 @ 4739.80
  • Silver +2.91 @ 76.50
  • Copper -0.05 @ 6.03

Gold Rebounds on US-Iran Peace Talk Hopes
Gold prices attempted a recovery on Friday, climbing back above $4,700 per ounce as cautious optimism emerged over potential progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. According to Al-Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Friday evening, citing Pakistani government sources. These sources indicated a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in the ongoing talks between the United States and Iran. The visit follows recent Iranian-Pakistani talks on a ceasefire, though uncertainties remain. US President Donald Trump reiterated he wants a “great deal” but is “not in a rush.” Still, gold faces an over 2% weekly decline as peace negotiations have shown limited progress so far, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven energy prices higher. Rising inflation risks and potential rate hikes continue to weigh on non-yielding bullion.

Silver Recovers on US-Iran Peace Talk Optimism
Silver prices rebounded on Friday, rising back to $76 per ounce as cautious optimism emerged over potential progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. According to Al-Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on Friday evening, with Pakistani government sources indicating a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in the ongoing talks between the US and Iran. The visit follows recent discussions between Iranian and Pakistani officials regarding a ceasefire, though uncertainties remain. US President Donald Trump reiterated his desire for a “great deal” but emphasized he is “not in a rush.” Despite Friday’s recovery, silver is facing a near 7% weekly decline, as peace negotiations have shown limited progress so far. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven energy prices higher, fueling inflation concerns. Rising inflation risks and potential central bank rate hikes continue to weigh on the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.

Palm Oil Market Set for First Weekly Rise in Three
Commodity
Malaysian palm oil futures rose modestly, hovering near MYR 4,600 after a recent pullback and on track for their first weekly gain in three. Support came from a weaker ringgit and firmer crude oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions, boosting biodiesel-linked demand. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to stay above MYR 4,500 in the near term, helped by elevated energy costs and potential El Niño risks. Expectations of stronger demand from top buyer India also grew after March shipments fell 19% mom. Simultaneously, Malaysia is moving toward a higher biodiesel blend, targeting B15 from the current B10, a move that could absorb up to 1-1/2 million tonnes annually and tighten supply in line with regional efforts to curb fuel imports. Gains, however, were capped by weak exports, with cargo surveyors noting April 1–20 shipments down about 25.6%–25.8% from March; while softer imports of key commodities in China, notably soybeans, may further weigh on the edible oils outlook.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia Pacific region ended the week on a mostly lower note, though Japan’s Nikkei (+1.0%) bucked the trend, settling at a fresh record high.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: +1.0%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.2%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3%,
  • India’s Sensex: -1.3%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: unch,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%.

In news:

  • China is expected to increase its grain harvest forecast for 2026 with stable prices.
  • Japan’s Chief Cabinet secretary repeated that there is no need for a supplementary budget at this time.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) had a strong showing after Taiwan’s regulators increased the limit on single-equity holdings by mutual funds and ETFs.
  • Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, making for the first hike in two years.

In economic data:

  • China’s March FDI -7.3% YTD (last -5.7%) o Japan’s March National CPI 0.4% m/m; 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.3%). March National Core CPI 1.8% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.6%). March Corporate Services Price Index 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.7%)
  • Singapore’s Q1 URA Property Index 0.9% qtr/qtr (expected 0.3%; last 0.6%)

Major European indices are on track for a mostly lower finish to the week while Germany’s DAX (+0.4%) outperforms with help from a strong post-earnings showing from SAP. 

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%,
  • Germany’s DAX: +0.4%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.1%,
  • France’s CAC 40: -0.2%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.2%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.5%.

In news:

  • The U.K. reported above-consensus Retail Sales for March (0.7%; expected 0.0%), but year-over-year core sales growth decelerated to 1.7% from 2.7% (expected 2.0%), inviting some concerns about stagflation.
  • Bank of England policymaker Breeden said that equity markets are too high and are set to fall.
  • Germany reported weak sentiment data for April with the ifo Business Climate Index coming in at its lowest level since late 2022.

In economic data:

  • Germany’s April ifo Business Climate Index 84.4 (expected 85.7; last 86.3). April Current Assessment 85.4 (expected 86.2; last 86.7) and Business Expectations 83.3 (expected 85.0; last 85.9)
  • U.K.’s March Retail Sales 0.7% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.8%). March Core Retail Sales 0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 2.7%)
  • France’s April Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 88; last 89)
  • Spain’s March PPI 3.4% yr/yr (last -6.9%)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April edged up to 49.8 (Briefing.com consensus: 47.6) from the preliminary (and record low) reading of 47.6. The final reading for March was 53.3. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 52.2.
  • The U.S. intercepted another tanker transporting oil from Iran, according to the Washington Post
  • Oil prices dropping in recent trade and S&P moving higher; attributed to social media post from AlArabiya which says “Al Arabiya correspondent: Pakistan may announce today the resumption of negotiations between Iran and Americ” (Note: This has not been confirmed by any U.S. news organization as of yet)
  • President Trump says Israel and Lebanon have extended ceasefire by 3 weeks, according to AP
  • A Pentagon email floated the idea of suspending Spain from NATO, according to Reuters
  • President Trump, in an interview, threatened large tariffs on UK if the country did not end digital services tax, according to Telegraph
  • China will limit U.S. investment in technology companies, according to Bloomberg
  • The White House will extend the Jones Act waiver for another 90 days, according to Reuters
  • President Trump will review prediction market bets made by federal workers, according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump wants to investigate banks over response to Los Angeles wildfires, according to Bloomberg
  • EMA releases Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) April meeting highlights

US 1-Year Inflation Outlook at 7-Month High
The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the survey of the University of Michigan, accelerated to a seven-month high of 4.7% in April 2026 from 3.8% in March, down slightly from the preliminary estimate of 4.8%. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook was revised slightly up to 3.5%, the highest in six months, from an earlier estimate of 3.4% and above March’s 3.2%.

US Consumer Sentiment Lowest on Record
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 49.8 in April 2026 from an initial estimate of 47.6, according to final data. Despite the slight improvement, this remains the weakest reading on record, reflecting the heavy toll of the Iran conflict on consumer morale. Sentiment declined across all demographics, regardless of political affiliation, income, age, or education. Expectations for business conditions deteriorated for both the short and long term, nearly matching levels seen a year ago when reciprocal tariffs were introduced. While the two-week ceasefire and a slight dip in gasoline prices helped sentiment recover a fraction of its early-month losses, the conflict’s primary impact on consumers stems from energy and broader price shocks. Inflation expectations surged, with year-ahead expectations jumping to 4.7% from 3.8%, the largest one-month increase since April 2025, while long-term expectations climbed to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025.

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) provides Q1 guidance
  • Ameriprise Financial (AMP) beats by $1.05, beats on revs; increases dividend 6%
  • Apogee Enterprises (APOG) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY27 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • AppFolio (APPF) beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Assoc Banc-Corp (ASB) beats by $0.02
  • Baker Hughes (BKR) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line; guides FY26 revs in-line
  • Boyd Gaming (BYD) misses by $0.11, reports revs in-line
  • Carlisle Cos (CSL) beats by $0.30, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • Charter Comm (CHTR) reports Q1 (Mar) results, revs in-line
  • Chemed (CHE) beats by $0.35, beats on revs; raises FY26 EPS above consensus
  • Columbia Banking (COLB) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line
  • Comfort Systems (FIX) beats by $3.70, beats on revs
  • Coursera (COUR) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • Customers Bancorp (CUBI) beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line
  • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO above consensus
  • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Eni S.p.A. (E) reports Q1 results; provides FY26 outlook
  • Enova International (ENVA) beats by $0.19, beats on revs
  • First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) beats by $0.16; authorizes 5 mln share repurchase plan
  • First Hawaiian (FHB) beats by $0.01
  • Flagstar Bank (FLG) beats by $0.01, misses on revs
  • Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Gentex (GNTX) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; raises FY26 revenue guidance; guides FY27 revs above consensus
  • Hartford Financial (HIG) misses by $0.30, misses on revs
  • HCA (HCA) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Hilltop Holdings (HTH) beats by $0.15
  • Intel (INTC) beats by $0.27, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Knowles (KN) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Marten Transport (MRTN) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs
  • MaxLinear (MXL) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus
  • Moog (MOG.A) beats by $0.28, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
  • Newmont Corporation (NEM) beats by $0.72, beats on revs; announces buyback
  • Norfolk Southern (NSC) beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line
  • Phillips Edison & Company (PECO) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Principal Fincl (PFG) beats by $0.16
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY26 FFO in-line
  • Robert Half (RHI) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line
  • SAP SE (SAP) beats by EUR0.01, reports revs in-line
  • Sallie Mae (SLM) reports Q1 (Mar) results, beats on revs; raises FY26 EPS above consensus
  • Sensient (SXT) beats by $0.20, beats on revs; raises FY26 EPS in-line
  • SS&C Techs (SSNC) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • SkyWest (SKYW) beats by $0.34, beats on revs
  • SLB (SLB) beats by $0.01, beats on revs
  • SouthState Bank Corp (SSB) beats by $0.08
  • VeriSign (VRSN) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line
  • Western Union (WU) misses by $0.14, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • World Kinect Corporation (WKC) beats by $0.44 (two estimates), beats on revs; raises FY26 EPS guidance
  • WSFS Financial (WSFS) beats by $0.18, beats on revs

2026 APR 27

Pre-Market: DPZ DEA NE VZ

After-Hours: ARE AMKR AMRZ AVB BBBY BRX BRO CDNS CLS CINF CDP CR CCK CTOS HLMN KFRC KRC LC NWBI NOV NUE PSA SANM SSD SUI UHS VTR

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

The markets went up, against my expectations.
No one cares about inflation rising and consumer sentiment falling. It’s all about “possible peace” in “the war”.

On the home front. My SPX IC in in the red, I will close the position on Monday, unless something crazy happens over the weekend, my holding period has come to an end.

This was a losing trade, but I confirmed a few more rules I will implement for my future ICs.

I have been sick all week, and the sick is still going on. It is just nice to take things easy on a Saturday morning.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)