A Penguin's Perspective

This is a cheese-loving, macroeconomic, pattern-trading penguin’s perspective of the markets and more.

Daily Market Analysis – 20260422

DMA of 2026 APRIL 22 WEDNESDAY AMC.

Pervical has left the island for an emergency. Minimal Market Data will be posted. He should be back in a few days.
— Automation Penguin

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite started on higher ground today and held that higher ground throughout today’s session. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at their best levels of the day and with record closing highs. They did so, fortified by leadership from the tech stocks and specifically the mega-cap tech stocks, software stocks, and semiconductor stocks.

It was a concentrated rally effort, but because the market’s most influential sector was in a leadership position, the major indices looked better than breadth figures suggested.

To that end, advancers ended only slightly ahead of decliners at the NYSE but held a more comfortable lead at the tech-dominated Nasdaq.

Buying efforts today followed President Trump’s announcement that he will extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow its fractured leadership more time to come up with a unified proposal for securing a lasting ceasefire. The caveat is that Iran only has a short time to do so or it will face a resumption of bombing efforts.

Stocks were not rattled by this thought, yet oil prices ($93.01, +3.45, +3.9%) reflected some lingering nervousness about the unsettled state of affairs with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remaining a chokepoint for global energy supplies and goods.

The higher prices took some steam out of the broad market relief rally seen at the start of today’s trading. The information technology (+2.3%), communication services (+1.4%), and energy (+1.1%) sectors were the only sectors up more than 1.0%. Four sectors–real state (-0.7%), industrials (-0.2%), financials (-0.2%), and utilities (-0.2%)–finished lower.

The underperformance of the industrials sector was a bit surprising given how Boeing (BA 231.28, +12.12, +5.53%), GE Vernova (GEV 1126.01, +134.71, +13.59%), and Masco (MAS 73.95, +7.19, +10.77%) fared after their earnings reports, but weakness in the defense stocks and airline stocks dictated the sector bias. United Airlines (UAL 91.71, -5.42, -5.58%) was a focal point, falling sharply after it cut its full-year outlook due in large part to rising fuel costs.

Elsewhere, Adobe (ADBE 255.94, +8.76, +3.54%) set a good tone for continued bargain hunting in the software space after it announced a $25 billion share repurchase program, while the mega-cap stocks set a good tone for the market. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 84.06, +1.69, +2.05%) jumped 2.0%.

Tesla (TSLA 387.20, +0.78, +0.20%), which is reporting after today’s close, trailed the mega-cap cohort, which was led by Apple (AAPL 273.17, +7.00, +2.63%), Amazon (AMZN 255.36, +5.45, +2.18%), and Alphabet (GOOG 337.73, +7.26, +2.20%), which unveiled new chips to power next-gen agentic AI training and inference at scale.

There was no U.S. economic data of note today. The Treasury market ended the day roughly flat, battling back from early selling efforts with the help of a strong $13 billion 20-yr bond reopening.


BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • Russell 2000: +12.2% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.0% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +6.1% YTD
  • S&P 500: +4.3% YTD
  • DJIA: +3.0% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 49490 (+0.69%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 24658 (+1.64%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 7138 (+1.05%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,150 mln vs avg. of 1,383 mln; NASDAQ 8,180 mln vs avg. of 9,156 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (574 mln/561 mln) and Nasdaq (5231 mln/2914 mln). 
  • Advancers led Decliners (NYSE 1508/1254; NASDAQ 3129/1708)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows (NYSE 106/15, NASDAQ 269/77).

After-Hours Action

US index futures were little changed on Thursday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh record highs in the prior session, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. President Donald Trump said the current truce would remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran, although Tehran has indicated it does not plan to engage in negotiations in the near term. In regular trading on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.05% and 1.64%, respectively, while the Dow added 0.69%. Market sentiment has been supported by a solid earnings season, with 3 out of 4 S&P 500 companies reporting so far surpassing either earnings or revenue expectations. In extended trading, Tesla fluctuated after warning of a sharp increase in capital expenditures, while IBM and ServiceNow dropped more than 7% and 12%, respectively, following disappointing results.


After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidanceQS +16.6%, GSHD +16.1% (also names new CFO and new COO), URI +15.6%, TXN +10.4%, TCBX +6.9%, CSX +6.7%, CHDN +5.1%, CACI +4.2%, HXL +4%, RS +2.6%, WCN +2.5%, SIGI +2.4%, MOH +2.2%, LRCX +2%, KALU +1.8%, KMI +1.4%, EGP +0.8%, CCI +0.7%, ROL +0.7%, TSLA +0.2%, ARR +0.2%, UVSP +0.1% (also increases dividend)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to newsCLPT +3.7% (completes first clinical procedure using Velocity Alpha MR), BBOT +3.2% (presents preclinical data for BBO-11818), IVA +1% (names new CFO), MRVL +1% (to acquire Polariton Technologies), SNY +0.6% (REGN and SNY announce Dupixent approved in US), GD +0.2% (awarded a $230 mln modification to previously awarded Navy contract)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidanceASGN -23.8%, MEDP -18.7%, NOW -12.8% (also NOW and Google Cloud unite AI agents for autonomous enterprise operations; also TridentCare selects ServiceNow AI Platform), KREF -12.5%, IBM -6.5%, PTEN -4.2%, OII -4%, KNX -3.9%, LUV -3.9%, MTH -3.9%, HLX -3%, WEX -2.7%, FR -2.1%, PNFP -0.8%, AZZ -0.7%, GTY -0.2%, PUBM -0.2% (guidance, also chief growth officer to step down), SEIC -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to newsALT -13% (stock offering), LULU -4.9% (names Nike exec as new CEO), DFTX -0.3% (highlights advancement of DT120 ODT clinical program), AMGN -0.2% (CTO David Reese to retire), GOOG -0.2% (ServiceNow and Google Cloud unite AI agents for autonomous enterprise operations), REGN -0.1% (REGN and SNY announce Dupixent approved in US)


ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mixed note. 

  • Japan’s Nikkei: +0.4%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.2%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.5%,
  • India’s Sensex: -1.0%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +0.5%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.1%.

In news:

  • South Korea’s March PPI increased at its fastest year-over-year pace in three years.
  • Japan’s March trade surplus was smaller than expected due to a big jump in imports, including a 13.9% yr/yr increase in LNG imports.
  • Expectations for a May rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased to about 50% after yesterday’s release of the second consecutive above-target CPI reading.

In economic data: 

  • Japan’s March trade surplus JPY90 bln (expected surplus of JPY230 bln; last deficit of JPY370 bln). March Imports 10.9% yr/yr (expected 7.1%; last 10.3%) and Exports 11.7% yr/yr (expected 11.0%; last 4.0%)
  • South Korea’s March PPI 1.6% m/m (last 0.6%); 4.1% yr/yr (last 2.5%)
  • Australia’s March MI Leading Index -0.1% m/m (last -0.1%)

Major European indices trade near their flat lines with some renewed concerns about the U.S.-Iran conflict after Vice President Vance’s trip to Pakistan was called off. However, President Trump said that the ceasefire will be extended.

  • STOXX Europe 600: unchanged,
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.2%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: unchanged,
  • France’s CAC 40: -0.3%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: unchanged,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.5%.

In news:

  • Travel operator TUI lowered its guidance due to increased energy prices and war-related uncertainty.
  • Lufthansa is scrapping about 20,000 short-haul flights through October due to a tight supply of jet fuel.

In economic data:

  • Eurozone’s 2025 debt-to-GDP ratio 87.8% (prior 87.0%) and 2025 budget-to-GDP ratio -2.9% (last -3.0%)
  • U.K.’s March CPI 0.7% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.4%); 3.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.0%). March Input PPI 4.4% m/m (expected 2.8%; last 0.9%); 5.4% yr/yr (last 0.7%) and Output PPI 0.9% m/m (expected 1.0%; last -0.5%); 2.6% yr/yr (last 1.8%). March Core CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.6%); 3.1% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; last 3.2%)

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends


(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)