A Penguin's Perspective

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Daily Market Analysis – 20260413

DMA of 2026 APRIL 13 MONDAY AMC.

The stock market started the week on a solid note, with the major averages trading higher throughout the session as tech leadership, broadening strength, and an intraday pullback in oil prices helped offset opening weakness tied to weekend geopolitical headlines. Today’s steady upward climb pushed the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year, and saw the index reclaim all of its losses since the start of the war in Iran.

Volumes on the NYSE and NASDAQ were lower than normal.
-Percy

The S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.6%) opened to broad losses on the heels of the U.S. and Iran failing to agree to a more durable ceasefire this weekend. Additionally, President Trump announced a blockade of all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports.

However, the early losses quickly began to fade, suggesting that the market remains confident that a potential end to the conflict could be imminent and that it will spur a sharp upward move across equities.

This afternoon, CNN reporter Alayna Treene posted on X that the Trump administration is discussing “a potential second, in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire between Washington & Tehran expires next week,” reinforcing hopes for a near-term off-ramp.

The major averages were supported by a strong showing from the information technology sector (+1.3%), which was one of the first S&P 500 sectors to move into positive territory this morning. Software stocks garnered a strong buy-the-dip rebound from Friday’s selloff that came amid renewed fears of AI disruption. Oracle (ORCL 155.64, +17.54, +12.71%) was the top-performing S&P 500 component today, and the iShares GS Software ETF finished 5.4% higher.

Microsoft (MSFT 384.37, +13.50, +3.64%) was a mega-cap standout amid a solid session for the market’s heavyweights, which pushed the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF 1.5% higher.

The financials sector (+1.7%) was the other notable outperformer in today’s session, supported by broad strength that saw only Goldman Sachs (GS 890.79, -17.01, -1.87%) finish in negative territory. The company topped earnings estimates, but succumbed to some “sell the news” pressure after an impressive run-up to its earnings report over the last month. However, the company’s record performance in Global Banking & Markets, combined with industry-leading M&A and equity underwriting activity, signals a meaningful rebound in capital markets and advisory demand, a positive read-through for peers as earnings season unfolds.

Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary (+0.9%) and communication services (+0.8%) sectors notched similar gains as mega-cap stocks charted fresh highs throughout the afternoon.

Only the defensive utilities (-1.2%) and consumer staples (-1.0%) sectors finished lower. Conagra (CAG 14.51, -0.67, -4.41%) was one of the worst-performing S&P 500 names after announcing that CEO Sean Connolly will step down on May 31, 2026, with John Brase set to take over as President and CEO effective June 1.

While the energy sector (+0.3%) managed a modest gain, it retreated sharply from its earlier highs in tandem with oil prices. WTI crude oil reached an overnight high of around $105 per barrel, but crude oil futures settled today’s session $2.42 higher (+2.5%) at $98.97 per barrel.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+1.5%) outperformed as the market leaned into a risk-on tone throughout the session, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.1%) captured a gain similar to that of the major averages.

Today’s action underscores the enthusiasm across the market that has pushed the major averages considerably higher over the past two weeks. Oil prices are stabilizing, and the mega-caps are reasserting their leadership, which has quickly negated losses incurred since the start of the Iran war. While volatility in oil prices will likely continue to cause price swings in the near term, the market’s resilience highlights a willingness to look past near-term macro developments as the Q1 earnings season ramps up.

U.S. Treasuries began the week with modest gains across the curve as the market maintained some overall optimism even though U.S.-Iran negotiations failed to produce a peace deal over the weekend. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.78%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.30%. 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +7.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +7.6% YTD
  • S&P 500: +0.6% YTD
  • DJIA: +0.3% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -0.3% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 48218 (+0.63%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 23184 (+1.23%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6886 (+1.02%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,182 mln vs avg. of 1,436 mln; NASDAQ 7,997 mln vs avg. of 9,200 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (855 mln/314 mln) and Nasdaq (6480 mln/1444 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 1967/787; NASDAQ 3553/1259)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows (NYSE 86/36, NASDAQ 191/117).

After-Hours Action

US stock futures held steady on Tuesday after the major averages posted strong gains in the previous session, with the S&P 500 erasing losses since the Iran war began. Market sentiment was buoyed by optimism over a potential longer-term agreement between the US and Iran, despite the collapse of peace talks over the weekend. Trump said Tehran had reached out to Washington just hours after the US initiated a naval blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. During Monday’s regular session, the Dow rose 0.63%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.02% and 1.23%, respectively. Nine of the 11 S&P sectors closed higher, led by gains in financials, technology, and consumer discretionary stocks. Investors are now focused on upcoming earnings reports from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs dropped nearly 2% on Monday after missing revenue estimates in its fixed-income, currencies, and commodities trading division.

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: SANA +24% (strategic collaboration with Mayo Clinic), BE +12.7% (expands strategic partnership with Oracle to deploy up to 2.8 GW), CRDO +9% (to acquire DustPhotonics in cash and stock transaction), JACK +3.7% (appoints new independent director), KDP +1.7% (results of post-closing acceptance period for offer for JDE Peet’s), ORCL +1% (BE expands strategic partnership with Oracle to deploy up to 2.8 GW), EYPT +0.6% (investor updates in presentation), SEI +0.5% (stock offering by selling shareholders), IONQ +0.4% (expands QLab collaboration with University of Maryland), RZLV +0.3% (to host call to discuss combination with CMRC), GNK +0.2% (issues statement regarding Diana Shipping’s (DSX) letter to shareholders), AB +0.1% (reports March 2026 AUM), FDX +0.1% (CFO to step down; reaffirms FY26 guidance and 2029 financial targets)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FBK -2.9%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ALLO -5.6% (stock offering), SHAZ -2.8% (accelerated receipt of remaining consideration from sale of 50% ownership in Texas critical data centers joint venture), SYRE -2.3% (terminated prospectus relating sale of common stock in ATM offering; announces $300 mln common stock offering), ATRO -1.9% (launches Qi2 wireless charging module), KZIA -1.8% (expands oncology platform with first-in-class SETDB1 inhibitor drug development platform), WBTN -1.3% (new global leadership structure), RVMD -1.2% (stock and convertible notes offering), FANG -0.5% (realized prices and derivative activity for Q1), INFQ -0.3% (to convene Colorado quantum industry leaders to accelerate commercialization), PRU -0.2% (recommends shareholders reject mini-tender offer from Potemkin Limited), GD -0.2% (awarded a $183.2 mln Navy contract), CVX -0.1% (agreed to an asset swap with Petroleos de Venezuela and subsidiaries of PDVSA)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries began the week with modest gains across the curve as the market maintained some overall optimism even though U.S.-Iran negotiations failed to produce a peace deal over the weekend. The trading day started with modest losses after a night that saw general weakness in global equities and sovereign debt. Yields on JGBs of most tenors reached fresh cycle highs and crude oil climbed back above $100/bbl to start the week. However, the U.S. session saw a swift bounce off lows in Treasuries and a pullback in the price of oil. U.S. equities also had a good showing, overcoming their early losses with ease. The improvement in sentiment was owed to intraday reports that President Trump remains open to diplomacy with Iran, though the U.S. Navy is now engaged in a blockade of Iran’s ports. Crude oil finished the day near $99/bbl after retreating from an overnight high near $105/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 98.36.

Yields

  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 3.78%
  • 3-yr: -2 bps to 3.80%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.92%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.30%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.90%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index held its recent decline to around 98.3 on Tuesday, hovering at six-week lows as investors shifted toward riskier assets, driven by optimism that a deal between the US and Iran could eventually be reached. Although the US failed to secure an agreement with Iran over the weekend, leading President Trump to announce a blockade targeting Iranian oil shipments, he later indicated that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. The prospect of a longer-term US-Iran ceasefire deal and potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a retreat in oil prices, easing inflationary risks and tempering hawkish bets on Federal Reserve monetary policy. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted that the energy shock stemming from the Iran conflict has not yet fed into longer-term inflation expectations, adding that he anticipates price pressures returning to the central bank’s target within a year.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.1758
  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.3504
  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 6.8174
  • USD/JPY: +0.1% to 159.34

Bitcoin Hits 4-Week High
Bitcoin climbed above $74,000 in mid-April, hitting its highest level in four weeks, tracking improved appetite for risk assets on hopes that the US and Iran may be open to resuming peace negotiations. The move came after US Vice President JD Vance said progress now hinges on Tehran following weekend talks that failed to produce a breakthrough. President Donald Trump also said Iran had made contact with his administration over possible peace talks, even as Washington continued a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted that Bitcoin continues to outperform broader risk assets, remaining up more than 10% since the Iran war began, though they said a significant upside move may not occur until the US enacts the Clarity Act to establish clearer rules for digital assets. US SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce also said she favors a more permanent approach to defining broker rules in crypto markets.

Yen Rises as Oil, Dollar Retreat
The Japanese yen strengthened toward 159 per dollar on Tuesday, ending a three-day losing streak as both the dollar and oil prices retreated on rising expectations that a US-Iran agreement could eventually be reached. President Donald Trump said Tehran had reached out to Washington just hours after the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also stated that Iran is prepared to continue peace talks, provided they remain within the framework of international law. The yen additionally drew support from intervention concerns as it neared the key 160 per dollar threshold, a level that previously triggered Japanese authorities to step in to stabilize the currency. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized on Monday the need to remain alert to the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, warning that higher oil prices could weigh on Japan’s growth outlook.

Offshore Yuan Hovers Near 3-Year High
The offshore yuan traded around 6.81 per dollar, hovering near its strongest level since March 2023, supported by improved sentiment following renewed diplomatic signals between the US and Iran. Trump stated that Tehran had reached out for a deal, while Iranian President Pezeshkian signaled a willingness to continue talks if they align with international law. The remarks came after the first talks failed to produce an agreement, prompting the US to announce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East war has boosted interest in China’s currency as a dollar alternative, reviving “petroyuan” talk promoted by Xi Jinping. The yuan has gained traction in energy trade, with Iran accepting it for oil and reportedly favoring ships using it through the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Xi is expected to meet Vietnam’s leader To Lam this week to strengthen energy ties amid supply risks. Domestically, investors are waiting for upcoming trade data, with exports and imports expected to ease.

Sterling Weakens Amid US-Iran Crisis
The British pound traded at $1.341, slipping from last week’s one-month high of $1.348, after US-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend. The breakdown followed Iran’s refusal to renounce nuclear ambitions and what Tehran called “excessive” US demands. Escalating tensions, US President Donald Trump threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, sending Brent crude soaring to around $102 per barrel. The spike in oil prices has deepened a global energy crisis, raising fears of an inflation shock and prompting markets to brace for a more hawkish Bank of England. Traders have raised their expectations to nearly two interest rate hikes by the end of 2026, an increase from just one anticipated last week.

Euro Falls as US-Iran Tensions Escalate
The euro dipped below $1.17, retreating from a six-week peak of $1.174 reached on Friday, as prospects for a US-Iran peace deal dimmed. Negotiations in Pakistan collapsed after Tehran dismissed Washington’s demands, with both sides showing little willingness to resume talks. Adding to market unease, US President Donald Trump threatened a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and suggested limited military strikes against Iran, despite an existing ceasefire. The strategic waterway’s significance sent oil prices skyrocketing, Brent crude climbed to around $102 per barrel, and led markets to anticipate a more aggressive stance from the European Central Bank, with traders now pricing in nearly three interest rate hikes by year-end, up from two just last week.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude futures dropped about 2% toward $97 per barrel and WTI crude futures dropped more than 2% to below $97 per barrel on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session as reports indicated that the US and Iran are considering further negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce expires. President Donald Trump stated that Tehran had initiated contact with Washington, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled readiness to pursue continued dialogue, provided it remains within the bounds of international law and regulations. Both sides failed to reach a deal after 21 hours of negotiations over the weekend, prompting President Trump to announce a blockade on Iranian oil shipments. Meanwhile, an OPEC+ report revealed that the group’s output fell by 7.9 million barrels per day in March, largely due to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are now turning their attention to the IEA’s upcoming monthly market report for clearer signals on global supply-demand conditions.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at $1.02

Commodities

  • Crude Oil +2.42 @ 98.97
  • Nat Gas -0.02 @ 2.63
  • Gold -20.50 @ 4766.80
  • Silver -0.79 @ 76.65
  • Copper +0.11 @ 5.99

Gold Edges Higher as More US-Iran Talks Eyed
Gold climbed to around $4,760 per ounce on Tuesday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses as the US and Iran signaled willingness to resume negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce lapses. President Donald Trump said Tehran had reached out to Washington just hours after the US initiated a naval blockade on Iranian oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also indicated readiness to continue peace discussions, provided they remain within the framework of international law and regulations. Oil prices retreated on hopes for a potential longer-term deal, easing inflationary concerns and tempering expectations that central banks will keep interest rates on hold or even hike them. Despite the uptick, gold is still down roughly 10% since the conflict began.

Silver Gains as More US-Iran Talks Eyed
Silver climbed toward $76 per ounce on Tuesday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses as the US and Iran signaled willingness to resume negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce lapses. President Donald Trump said Tehran had reached out to Washington just hours after the US initiated a naval blockade on Iranian oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also indicated readiness to continue peace discussions, provided they remain within the framework of international law and regulations. Oil prices retreated on hopes for a potential longer-term deal, easing inflationary concerns and tempering expectations that central banks will keep interest rates on hold or even hike them. Despite the uptick, silver remains down nearly 20% since the conflict began.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly lower showing to begin the week amid renewed concerns about the U.S.-Iran conflict broadening into a prolonged war.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.9%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1%,
  • India’s Sensex: -0.9%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: -0.9%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%.

In news:

  • Oil prices climbed again, putting some pressure on JGBs, which lifted yields on most tenors to fresh cycle highs.
  • Japan’s trade minister Akazawa said that tighter central bank policy could held with inflation.
  • China Securities Daily observed that demand for savings bonds has been hot, with many banks reaching their quotas quickly.
  • ANZ now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates in July, September, and October.
  • South Korea’s exports through the first ten days of April were up 36.7% yr/yr with chip exports jumping 152.0%.

In economic data:

  • China’s March New Loans CNY2.99 trln (expected CNY3.465 trln; last CNY900.0 bln), March outstanding loan growth 5.8% yr/yr (expected 5.9%; last 6.0%), and March total social financing CNY5.23 trln (expected CNY5.40 trln; last CNY2.38 trln)
  • India’s March CPI 3.40% yr/yr (expected 3.48%; last 3.21%)
  • New Zealand’s March Performance of Services Index 46.0 (last 47.6)

Major European indices trade with losses across the board after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a peace deal over the weekend.

  • STOXX Europe 600: -1.0%,
  • Germany’s DAX: -1.5%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.6%,
  • France’s CAC 40: -1.1%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.1%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: -1.9%.

In news:

  • . Brent and WTI crude oil have climbed back above $100/bbl, pressuring sentiment.
  • Hungary will have a more EU-friendly government after a Sunday election unseated Prime Minister Orban’s party.
  • Germany’s economic ministry expects that high energy prices, supply issues, and economic pressures will persist for the remainder of the year.
  • Standard & Poor’s affirmed the U.K.’s AA rating with a Stable outlook.

There is no economic data of note. 

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • Existing home sales decreased 3.6% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.01 million) from an upwardly revised 4.13 million (from 4.09 million) in February. Sales were down 1.0% on a year-over-year basis.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that existing home sales were pressured at the start of the peak selling period by higher mortgage rates, higher prices, limited inventory, lower consumer confidence, and softer job growth.
  • President Trump says U.S. and Iran failed to reach agreement on nuclear issue; says U.S. Navy will begin blockading any and all ships entering the Strait of Hormuz starting today at 10:00 ET; says at some point, “we will reach an all being allowed to go in, all being allowed to go out basis”; says U.S. will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Strait; says military “locked and loaded” and “will finish up the little that is left of Iran”
  • Iran threatens ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman following the U.S. blockade, according to WSJ
  • A U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could sever Iran’s financial lifeline and could be less risky than seizing Kharg Island, according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump tells reporters he “doesn’t care” if Iran comes back to the negotiating table. He said Iran broke its promise to open the Strait of Hormuz, according to, according to NBC News
  • President Trump is considering resuming limited Iranian strikes, according to WSJ
  • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer says UK will not help with blockade of Strait of Hormuz, CNBC
  • Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline has been restored to full capacity, according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump, in an interview, says gas prices could remain high through November, according to Reuters
  • Hungary’s opposition wins landslide victory, according to BBC
  • The Senate is expected to vote on a reconciliation resolution next week to fund immigration enforcement, which was left out of the DHS funding bill, according to Politico
  • Artemis II astronauts successfully returned to Earth, NY Times
  • Used EV sales rise 12% in Q1, according to WSJ
  • FTC in settlement discussions with advertising companies, according to WSJ
  • CMS Proposes Major Reforms to Speed Up Patient Access to Drugs, Increase Transparency, and Reduce Administrative Burden
  • CMS issues hospital inpatient prospective payment system rule
  • U.S. blockade of ships entering or exiting Iranian ports takes effect
  • President Trump says “if any of these ‘fast attack’ Iranian ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated”
  • Ukraine drone hit chemical plant in Cherepovets, Russia, according to Kyiv Independent
  • U.S. seeks 20-year halt on Iran uranium enrichment as talks stall over nuclear terms, according to Axios
  • Anthropic: Banks testing Anthropic’s Mythos model, according to Bloomberg
  • Anthropic gaining on OpenAI in customer race, according to FT
  • Anthropic speaking with officials from the Trump administration regarding next AI model, according to Reuters

US Existing Home Sales Fall to 9-Month Low
Existing home sales in the United States fell by 3.6% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 3.98 million in March of 2026, the lowest in nine months and missing market expectations of 4.06 million units. Inventory levels inched higher from the previous month to 1.36 million, equivalent to 4.1 months of supply at the latest sales rate, although both the level and sales ratio remain well below the historical average. Meanwhile, the median sales price of existing homes were 1.4% higher from the previous year at $408,800, the highest since November. According to NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace. Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers. Because inventory remains limited, the median home price rose to a new record high for the month of March. That price growth has helped the typical homeowner accumulate $128,100 in housing wealth over the past six years.”

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) announces select preliminary financial results for the first half of FY26
  • Boston Beer Co (SAM) estimates that it will record a pre-tax one-time litigation expense liability of $175.5 mln in Ardagh case
  • Commvault Systems (CVLT) announces leadership appointments; reaffirms FY26 revenue guidance
  • CVRx, Inc. (CVRX) sees Q1 revs above consensus
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) beats by $1.08, beats on revs
  • InMode (INMD) sees Q1 revs above consensus; reaffirms FY26 guidance
  • Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI) provides operation and financial update
  • LVMH (LVMUY) reports Q1 sales – Tapestry (TPR), Capri Holdings (CPRI) dip lower
  • National Grid (NGG) sees FY results in-line
  • Sify (SIFY) reports consolidated financial results for FY 2025-26
  • WisdomTree (WT) reports monthly metrics for March 2026

2026 APR 14

Pre-Market: CI BLK KMX C JNJ JPM WFC

After-Hours: None

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 6:00 ET: March NFIB Small Business Optimism (Briefing.com consensus 98.0; prior 98.8)
  • 8:30 ET: March PPI (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%; prior 0.7%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

In short, no one really knows the reasons why the markets went up instead of down last night. Marketwatch posted a nice article saying the same: https://on.mktw.net/3Op3u1b

Volumes in the markets were lower than expected for a steep climb – I expect a reversal soon.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)