WMO: Weekly Market Outlook (2026 Week 16|APR13 – APR17)

WMO of MONDAY to FRIDAY, 2026 APRIL 13 to APRIL 17

Stocks posted solid gains this week as a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran helped ease geopolitical risk and drive a sharp decline in oil prices, supporting a broad-based rebound in equities. The S&P 500 (+3.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+4.7%), and DJIA (+3.0%) all advanced, while the Russell 2000 (+4.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+3.4%) also finished higher, reflecting broad participation across the market.

Sector leadership was concentrated in growth and AI-linked areas, with communication services (+5.8%) and consumer discretionary (+5.8%) leading, alongside information technology (+4.8%).

Within tech, semiconductor strength was a key driver, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index surging +13.5% on the week, while software lagged, as reflected in weakness in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (-7.1%). Mega-cap growth also contributed, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF rising +4.2% due to solid gains from Amazon (+13.7%) and Meta Platforms (+9.6%).

Industrials (+4.7%) and materials (+3.5%) posted strong gains as well, while financials (+2.4%), real estate (+2.9%), utilities (+1.3%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and health care (+0.4%) all finished higher but more modestly. Energy (-4.1%) was the clear laggard as crude oil fell nearly $15 per barrel amid easing geopolitical risk.

Friday’s March CPI report provided the key macro check late in the week, with headline inflation running hotter due to energy costs while core inflation was more contained. Overall, the week was defined by easing geopolitical tensions, a sharp reversal in oil prices, and continued leadership from AI and semiconductor-related equities, with focus now turning to upcoming U.S.–Iran talks for clarity on whether the ceasefire can evolve into a more durable agreement.

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.6% YTD +3.4% week-to-date
• Russell 2000: +6.0% YTD +4.0% week-to-date
• DJIA: -0.3% YTD +3.0% week-to-date
• S&P 500: -0.4% YTD +3.6% week-to-date
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.5% YTD +4.7% week-to-date

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Monday:

The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (+0.4%) recorded modest gains to start the week, trading in a stable range throughout the day amid a relatively quiet session.

There were no material changes surrounding negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which kept both oil prices and stocks free from any major swings today. Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were involved in mediated discussions for a potential 45-day ceasefire, but later reports stated that Iran is not interested in a temporary solution.

In a 1:00 p.m. ET press conference, President Trump reiterated his threat of strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal is not negotiated before the previously imposed deadline of Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. ET. The press conference was relatively devoid of any new developments, and while the major averages dipped toward their baselines in reaction to the threat of further escalation, they quickly reclaimed their modest gains.

Crude oil futures settled today’s session $0.77 higher (+0.7%) at $112.25 per barrel.

Strength across the stock market was broad, though the gains were largely modest in nature.

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%) notched the widest gain, supported by gains in nearly all of its components that overshadowed a weak showing from Tesla (TSLA 352.82, -7.77, -2.15%).

The energy sector (+0.8%) captured a similar gain amid the modest increase in oil prices.

Memory storage names saw another day of sharp gains after Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating for Seagate Tech (STX 453.30, +23.94, +5.58%) and Western Digital (WDC 304.15, +9.18, +3.11%), helping the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish 1.1% higher while the broader information technology sector gained 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the utilities (-0.4%), health care (-0.4%), and materials (-0.4%) sectors finished modestly lower.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.5%) posted similar gains to those of the major averages.

Corporate news flow was on the lighter side today, though there was some merger and acquisition activity with Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX 132.48, +0.88, +0.67%) agreeing to acquire Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO 52.26, +12.77, +32.34%) for $53 per share in cash.

Altogether, some lingering optimism remains that a last-minute ceasefire agreement could still be reached. However, a cautious tone continues to prevail, keeping the S&P 500 and DJIA pinned just below their 200-day moving averages, while the Nasdaq Composite remains further behind.

U.S. Treasuries began the week in mixed fashion with relative strength in longer tenors allowing the long bond to reclaim its loss from Friday’s abbreviated session while the short end underperformed, extending Friday’s losses. Those losses were incurred in reaction to the Employment Situation report for March, which beat headline expectations by a wide margin, masking some softness on the earnings side. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.85%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.33%.

Reviewing today’s data:

• March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% (Briefing.com consensus 54.9%); Prior 56.1%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the services sector remained in expansion, but the Employment Index returned to contraction while the Prices Index saw its biggest one-month increase in over 13 years. This combination will present a headwind to growth, especially if it persists in the coming months.

Tuesday:

Stocks had a choppy session, with the major averages facing several intraday swings amid conflicting reports regarding the state of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (-0.2%) opened to losses of roughly 1.0% as President Trump’s 8:00 p.m. ET deadline loomed, with the president threatening a “whole civilization will die tonight” if a deal is not struck.

The major averages fluctuated throughout the session amid conflicting reports of where negotiations stood or if communications between the U.S. and Iran were even open.

In the final hour of the session, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif requested that President Trump extend the deadline for two weeks and that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks. Pakistan is a key mediator in the negotiations, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the President has been made aware of the proposal, and a response will come.

Crude oil futures settled today’s session $0.60 higher (+0.5%) at $112.85 per barrel, which was well off session highs, but retreated even further following the Pakistani peace proposal.

The late session rally saw five S&P 500 sectors finish with gains after participation was notably weaker for most of the session.

The communication services sector (+1.0%) captured the widest gain, with Paramount Skydance (PSKY 10.90, +1.05, +10.66%) finishing as the best-performing S&P 500 component after the company confirmed commitments from Saudi-wealth funds for its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 27.37, -0.04, -0.15%).

Alphabet (GOOG 303.93, +6.27, +2.11%) was a mega-cap standout after announcing a long-term partnership with Broadcom (AVGO 333.97, +19.54, +6.21%), in which Broadcom will work to develop and supply custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) to Google.

Strength across chipmaker names helped the information technology sector (+0.4%) notch a higher finish after holding an early loss that exceeded 1.0%. Apple (AAPL 253.50, -5.36, -2.07%) was a laggard today after Nikkei Asia reported that its foldable iPhone will likely be delayed due to engineering hurdles.

Elsewhere, managed care names such as UnitedHealth (UNH 307.73, +26.37, +9.37%) and Humana (HUM 197.15, +14.50, +7.94%) rallied after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released its CY27 Medicare Advantage (MA) and Part D Rate Announcement, which came in meaningfully better than expected and eased concerns about ongoing margin pressure.

The health care sector (+0.2%) notched a modest gain, while the utilities sector (+0.3%) finished similarly, and the energy sector (+0.8%) outperformed.

Meanwhile, the consumer staples (-1.8%) and consumer discretionary (-0.9%) sectors were today’s worst performers, with particular weakness across specialty stores and homebuilders.

Similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) eked out a gain as the broader market rallied in the final hour of the session.

Today’s action underscores that oil prices are continuing to drive the stock market, with the major averages whipsawing intraday amid conflicting reports on U.S.–Iran ceasefire negotiations ahead of tonight’s 8:00 p.m. ET deadline. The approaching deadline adds urgency to the headlines, keeping volatility elevated. Until there is more clarity on the outcome, markets are likely to remain sensitive to every development in the U.S.–Iran talks.

U.S. Treasuries had a mixed showing on Tuesday, as shorter tenors recovered from a lower start while longer tenors could not stay out of the red. The bounce off morning lows found some midday resistance, but a strong $58 bln 3-year note auction gave the complex an afternoon boost that helped 5s and shorter tenors finish in the green. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.83%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.34%. 

Reviewing today’s data:

• Durable goods orders decreased 1.4% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.5% decline (from 0.0%) in January. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.4%) in January.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in February was concentrated largely in transportation and capital goods orders. Otherwise, order activity was decent, highlighted by a 0.6% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft—a proxy for business spending.
• Consumer credit increased by $9.5 billion in February (Briefing.com consensus $7.0 billion) after increasing by a revised $7.7 billion (from $8.1 billion) in January. Nonrevolving credit increased by $8.8 billion while revolving credit increased by $700 million.

Wednesday:

The stock market rallied today as a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran culminated in a sharp retreat in oil prices and a meaningful improvement in sentiment across equities.

The S&P 500 (+2.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.8%), and DJIA (+2.9%) posted broad gains that saw the major averages reclaim their 200-day moving averages, with the S&P 500 closing just above its 50-day moving average (6,765) as well. The Russell 2000 (+3.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.8%) notched similar gains as the broader market displayed a clear risk-on disposition today.

Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and Iran are set to hold talks to seek a more permanent end to the war soon, marking a much more conciliatory tone in comparison to yesterday’s rhetoric. However, the situation remains delicate, with Israeli strikes against targets in Lebanon drawing condemnation from Iran and threats to abandon the agreement.

Still, today’s action marked a definitive step towards a resolution. Tanker traffic has yet to pick up through the Strait of Hormuz, but crude oil futures still settled today’s session $18.45 lower (-16.4%) at $94.40 per barrel.

The energy sector (-3.7%) faced a sharp retreat as a result, but the ten other S&P 500 sectors finished with gains of 1.0% or wider.

The industrials sector (+3.8%) led the advance, supported by strong gains across airline names such as United Airlines (UAL 96.30, +7.01, +7.85%) amid the retreat in oil prices. Delta Air Lines (DAL 68.08, +2.46, +3.75%) beat earnings expectations, and the company emphasized that it is not seeing any slowdown in summer travel demand despite higher ticket prices and macro headwinds.

Similarly, cruise lines such as Carnival (CCL 28.03, +2.83, +11.23%) posted double-digit gains today as oil slid, helping the consumer discretionary sector (+2.8%) finish near the top of the leaderboard as well.

Elsewhere in the sector, homebuilders also captured solid gains amid hopes that an easing of the Iran conflict may bring mortgage rates back down.

Amazon (AMZN 221.25, +7.48, +3.50%) provided solid mega-cap leadership, though Tesla (TSLA 343.23, -3.42, -0.99%) continues its recent slide, finishing as the only “magnificent seven” stock without a gain today.

Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (META 612.42, +37.37, +6.50%) captured a monster gain following the unveiling of Muse Spark, its first step toward personal superintelligence with multimodal, multi-agent AI.

Chipmakers were also a point of strength as today’s bullish session reignited momentum in the AI trade. The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 6.3% higher, helping the broader information technology sector (+2.8%) shake off relative weakness across its software components.

Today’s data was limited, though the March FOMC minutes showed inflation remains above target, with higher oil prices adding near-term pressure. While officials still expect a gradual return to 2%, geopolitical risks could delay progress.

Investors will turn their attention to tomorrow’s release of the February PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. While today’s temporary ceasefire sparked a broad relief rally, focus now shifts to the path toward a more durable resolution—particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would help alleviate pressure on oil prices and the resulting inflation concerns.

U.S. Treasuries finished Wednesday with solid gains across the curve, though intraday action saw a steady retreat from opening highs. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.79%, and the 10-year note yield settled down five basis points to 4.29%. 

Reviewing today’s data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -0.8%; Prior -10.4%

Thursday:

The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.6%) saw a meaningful extension of yesterday’s gains after shaking off some early apprehension tied to lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

The major averages spent most of the morning in modestly negative territory as reports indicated that the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed to tanker traffic and that Israel continued strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting threats from Iran to abandon the fragile two-week ceasefire reached Tuesday night.

Stocks found their footing shortly before midday following a Reuters report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed his aides to open direct negotiations with Lebanon. Those talks are set to begin next week, and Israel has stated that it will continue to launch strikes against Hezbollah in the interim, which could lead to further volatility.

Still, the headline prompted a decisive upward move in equities and a considerable drop in oil prices. Crude oil futures settled today’s session $3.49 higher (+3.7%) at $97.89 per barrel, well off session highs that saw WTI crude eclipse the $102 per barrel mark.

The energy sector (-1.2%) ceded its earlier gains in turn, finishing firmly lower. On an unrelated note, Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL 377.97, -70.31, -15.68%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component today after the sudden death of Murray Stahl, the company’s largest shareholder and longtime board member.

The health care sector (-0.2%) was the only other S&P 500 sector to close without a gain, as the other nine sectors moved higher.

After what felt like a weeks-long drought in meaningful corporate news, the recent improvement in the geopolitical backdrop has helped reignite momentum in the AI trade, with several notable headlines involving hyperscalers emerging today.

The consumer discretionary sector (+2.5%) led the advance, supported by a sharp gain in Amazon (AMZN 233.65, +12.40, +5.60%) after CEO Andy Jassy released his annual shareholder letter, reiterating the company’s willingness to make significant AI investments. The company also announced plans to invest $25 billion in data centers in Mississippi.

Meta Platforms (META 628.39, +15.97, +2.61%) also captured a solid gain after announcing an expansion of its $21 billion AI infrastructure deal with CoreWeave (CRWV 92.00, +3.10, +3.49%).

Some of those gains also made their way downstream, as stocks set to benefit from the AI data center buildout cycle put up solid performances. Corning (GLW 169.80, +4.70, +2.85%), Caterpillar (CAT 787.07, +15.49, +2.01%), and GE Vernova (GEV 968.02, +31.95, +3.41%) all traded to fresh record highs today, with the latter two names helping the industrials sector (+1.0%) notch a solid gain.

Meanwhile, the information technology (+0.4%) notched a more modest gain. There was some renewed AI enthusiasm, with Sandisk (SNDK 851.57, +70.67, +9.05%) posting another monster gain, while large chip makers such as NVIDIA (NVDA 183.94, +1.86, +1.02%) and Intel (INTC 61.72, +2.77, +4.70%) helped push the PHLX Semiconductor Index 2.1% higher.

However, those gains came at the expense of software stocks such as ServiceNow (NOW 89.81, -7.66, -7.86%) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 130.54, -10.22, -7.26%), which pushed the iShares GS Software ETF 3.9% lower.

Elsewhere, the consumer staples (+0.9%) and utilities (+0.8%) sectors opened to solid gains amid the geopolitical uncertainty, and maintained the bulk of the gains throughout the session. Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.6%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) followed a similar trajectory to the major averages.

All told, today’s session marked another constructive step forward for equities, as improving geopolitical conditions provided a supportive backdrop for a continued rebound in the broader market while enthusiasm for the AI trade began to return. The market will face an important test tomorrow in the form of the March CPI report (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), which will be the first real test of whether inflation is broadening beyond energy into the core basket.

U.S. Treasuries endured some Thursday volatility that produced a modest loss in the long bond while 5s and shorter tenors eked out slim gains. Today’s $22 billion 30-year bond reopening was met with decent, but unimpressive demand. The 2-year note yield settled down one basis point at 3.78%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.29%. 

Reviewing today’s data:

• February Personal Income -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior 0.4%, February Personal Spending 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%, February PCE Prices 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.3%, February PCE Prices – Core 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects sticky inflation pressure before the Iran war started, so it won’t sway the Fed from sticking with a wait-and-see policy stance.
• Weekly Initial Claims 219K (Briefing.com consensus 215K); Prior was revised to 203K from 202K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.794 mln; Prior was revised to 1.832 mln from 1.841 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that continuing claims hit their lowest level since May 11, 2024.
• Q4 GDP – Third Estimate 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior 0.7%, Q4 GDP Deflator – Third Estimate 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%); Prior 3.8%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it suggests the economy closed last year on a sluggish note; however, it wasn’t quite as soft as it appears when taking into account that real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 1.8%.
• February Wholesale Inventories 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%); Prior -0.3%

Friday:

The stock market ended a constructive week on a subdued note, with the S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%), and DJIA (-0.6%) spending today’s session in a relatively tight range near their baselines.

It was a quiet day on the geopolitical front ahead of this weekend’s talks between the U.S. and Iran that will be led by Vice President Vance. President Trump told The New York Post that the U.S. military will resume strikes against Iran if negotiations do not result in a deal, but that had little effect on stocks or oil prices. WTI crude traded in a stable range around the $98 per barrel mark, and crude oil futures settled today’s session $1.34 lower (-1.4%) at $96.55 per barrel.

The market received a full slate of economic data this morning, which offered an early look at how the Iran conflict is affecting inflation and consumer sentiment readings. The headline March CPI reading (0.9%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) came in hotter-than-expected due to the surge in energy prices, while the core reading (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) was better than feared. Additionally, the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April fell to 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus: 52.0), though the market had a muted response to the report as nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7.

Strength was mixed today, with four S&P 500 sectors finishing in positive territory.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.8%) captured the widest gain, which helped prevent further losses at the index level. Semiconductor stocks put together another strong showing after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 370.60, +5.11, +1.40%) reported upside Q1 revenues, which resulted in solid gains across large chipmakers such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 245.04, +8.40, +3.55%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 188.74, +4.84, +2.63%).

Super Micro Computer (SMCI 25.26, +2.04, +8.79%) and Coherent (COHR 307.50, +23.33, +8.21%) captured even wider gains, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.3% higher.

Though not a component of the S&P 500, CoreWeave (CRWV 102.00, +10.00, +10.87%) posted another double-digit gain after announcing a multi-year agreement with Anthropic to support the development and training of its Claude family of AI models.

Conversely, Anthropic’s launch of its Managed Agents platform weighed heavily on Akamai Tech (AKAM 91.35, -18.26, -16.66%) amid intensifying fears around AI-driven disruption of traditional SaaS and cloud workflows. The broader software space lagged again today, with the iShares GS Software ETF finishing 2.6% lower.

Elsewhere, solid gains in Amazon (AMZN 238.38, +4.73, +2.02%) and Tesla (TSLA 349.00, +3.38, +0.98%) helped the consumer discretionary sector (+0.6%) finish near the top of the leaderboard.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.4% higher, contributing to the outperformance of the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%) relative to the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.8%).

The materials (+0.6%) and real estate (+0.2%) sectors also captured gains, while the other seven S&P 500 sectors finished lower.

The defensive consumer staples (-1.4%) and health care sectors (-1.3%) were the worst performers, while the energy sector (-0.8%) lagged amid the stabilization in oil prices.

Meanwhile, the financials sector (-1.1%) also underperformed, but major banking names such as Goldman Sachs (GS 907.80, +4.08, +0.45%) and Citigroup (C 124.36, -0.56, -0.45%) were among the more resilient components ahead of their earnings releases next week.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) charted modest losses.

Overall, AI-driven enthusiasm in semiconductor and mega-cap growth names helped offset broader weakness across most sectors, keeping the major averages relatively contained. Looking ahead, the market will remain highly attuned to any developments out of this weekend’s U.S.-Iran talks, which could upend the progress stocks made this week.

U.S. Treasuries had a modestly lower showing on Friday, giving back a chunk of their midweek gains. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.80% (-3 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.32% (-3 basis points this week).

Reviewing today’s data:

• March CPI 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior 0.3%, March Core CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that headline inflation was driven by the index for energy, which rose 10.9% in March, and although core inflation was seemingly subdued in March, the concern is that the energy price shock will bleed through more to core inflation in April.
• February Factory Orders 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders weren’t as flat as the headline suggests. On the contrary, they were quite strong when the volatile transportation component was excluded.
• April Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus 52.0); Prior 53.3
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the fallout from the Iran conflict was the driver of the big drop in sentiment and big rise in year-ahead inflation expectations in April (note: nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7).
• The Treasury Department reported a $164.1 billion deficit for March (Briefing.com consensus -$160.0 bln), which was a bit wider than the $160.5 billion deficit reported for March 2025. Receipts totaled $385.0 billion, while outlays reached $549.0 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that net interest costs hit nearly $100 billion in March, trailing only Social Security payments as the government’s largest outlay.

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries had a modestly lower showing on Friday, giving back a chunk of their midweek gains. The trading day started in flat fashion after a quiet night in terms of new geopolitical developments, as the market maintained a measure of optimism ahead of this weekend’s U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan led by Vice President Vance. Treasuries briefly extended to fresh session highs in immediate reaction to the March CPI report, which was cooler than expected at the Core level (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) while the headline reading (0.9%; Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) was hotter than expected. The brief push to fresh highs gave way to a reversal that found support once yields on most tenors returned to their intraday highs from Thursday while relative weakness in the 2-yr note lifted its yield back to levels from Tuesday. Today’s retreat left the Treasury complex with only a portion of its midweek gains and no change in the 2s10s spread, which remained at 52 bps. Crude oil ended a volatile week with a loss of nearly $15/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 98.66, losing 1.5% for the week.

YIELD CHECK

• 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.80% (-3 bps this week)
• 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.82% (-4 bps this week)
• 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.94% (-5 bps this week)
• 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.32% (-3 bps this week)
• 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.91% (-1 bp this week)

BOND YIELDS

Treasury Yields March Higher
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 4.31% on Friday, moving slightly away from three-week lows reached in the previous session, investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and assess fresh data. US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, while Israel has agreed to hold talks with Lebanon’s government, raising hopes of de-escalation in the region. The impact of the war with Iran is already being reflected in US inflation data. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024. Core CPI, however, rose more modestly to 2.6%. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in April and inflation expectations for the year ahead also moved sharply higher. Investors currently see little chance of another interest-rate cut by the Fed in 2026 and many economists are maintaining forecasts for one or more reductions later in the year.

• 3M: -2 bps at 3.69%
• 2Y:  -3 bps at 3.81%
• 5Y: -5 bps at 3.94%
• 10Y: -4 bps at 4.31%
• 30Y: unchanged at 4.91%

Bond yields reduced across the broad, except for 30Y that’s unchanged for the week.  

EARNINGS

S&P 500 Could Report Earnings Growth of 19% for Q1

The current earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for the first quarter is 12.6%, which would mark the 6^th consecutive quarter of double-digit (year-over-year) earnings growth reported by the index. Given that most S&P 500 companies report actual earnings above estimates, what is the likelihood the index will report earnings growth of 12.6% for the quarter?

Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index could report earnings growth of 19% for Q1. This would be the highest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 (32.0%).

When companies in the S&P 500 report actual earnings above estimates during an earnings season, the overall earnings growth rate for the index increases because the higher actual EPS numbers replace the lower estimated EPS numbers in the calculation of the growth rate. For example, if a company is projected to report EPS of $1.05 compared to year ago EPS of $1.00, the company is projected to report earnings growth of 5%. If the company reports actual EPS of $1.10 (a $0.05 upside earnings surprise compared to the estimate), the actual earnings growth rate for the company for the quarter is now 10%, five percentage points above the estimated growth rate (5% + 5% = 10%).

In fact, the actual earnings growth rate has exceeded the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of the quarter in 37 of the past 40 quarters for the S&P 500. The only exceptions were Q1 2020, Q3 2022, and Q4 2022.

Over the past ten years, actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 7.1% on average. During this same period, 76% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 5.8 percentage points on average (over the past ten years) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q1 (March 31) of 13.2%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 19.0% (13.2% + 5.8% = 19.0%).

Over the past five years, actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 7.3% on average. During this same period, 78% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 7.0 percentage points on average (over the past five years) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q1 (March 31) of 13.2%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 20.2% (13.2% + 7.0% = 20.2%).

Over the past four quarters (Q1 2025 through Q4 2025), actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 7.2% on average. During these four quarters, 79% of companies in the S&P 500 reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 6.1 percentage points on average (during the past four quarters) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q1 (March 31) of 13.2%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 19.3% (13.2% + 6.1% = 19.3%).

Thus, using the most conservative average improvement of these three periods, the index could report year-over-year earnings growth of 19.0% for Q1.

How are the numbers trending to date? Of the 20 S&P 500 companies that have reported actual earnings for Q1 2026 through April 10, 80% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate. In aggregate, actual earnings reported by these 20 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 15.7%. However, downward revisions to EPS estimates since the end of the quarter have more than offset these positive EPS surprises to date. As a result, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 has decreased by 0.6 percentage points since March 31 (to 12.6% from 13.2%).

By John Buters | 2026 APRIL 10 | Factset.com

WEEK 16 EARNINGS CALENDAR

• Monday (April 13)
  • Pre-Market: FAST GS
  • After-Hours: FBK
  Tuesday (April 14)
  • Pre-Market:  ACI BLK KMX C JNJ JPM WFC
  • After-Hours:  None

• Wednesday (April 15)
  • Pre-Market: ASML BAC FHN MTB MS PNC PGR
  • After-Hours: HOMB JBHT SLG

• Thursday (April 16)
  • Pre-Market: ABT BK SCHW CFG IIIN KEY MAN MRSH PEP PLD TRV USB
  • After-Hours: AA CNS FNB NFLX SFNC

• Friday (April 17)
  • Pre-Market: ALLY ALV BMI ERIC FITB RF STT TFC
    After-Hours: None

SEASONALS

WEEK 16: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, APRIL 13 to APRIL 17

According to the PTSD*, Week 16 has FIVE trading days and is the THIRD trading week in April 2026. 17th April is Expiration Friday. The next Market Holiday is on MONDAY MAY25. Seasonally, Week 16 has a Bullish outlook. April is the last of the “6 months of bullishness” on the SPX.
We also need to keep in mind that with the current POTUS, seasonals can easily go out of whack.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices Week 16 over a 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs Week 16 – 15 year AVERAGE.

ANALYSIS

PUT/CALL RATIOS

Any reading above 1.00 is regarded as bearish.
As a common practice among professionals, it is worth noting that the big-money indicators are the Index and ETF Put/Call Ratios, while Equity Put/Call Ratios are mostly for novice/amateur participation.

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VOLUMES

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SHILLER PE RATIO

The Shiller PE Ratio, as of Fri 10 Apr, is at 39.35, 3.72% higher than the previous week of 37.94.

This is more than double of its mean (17.35) and its median (16.07). At this level, the ratio is above the middle between the historical high (44.19) and the mean or the median. The U.S. market printed its third-highest Shiller PE Ratio in its history at 40.94 on 9 Jan 2026. The largest bubble remains as December 1999 at 44.19.

DAILY MONITORING TABLE (Last 5 Weeks)
Another week with nil bearish convergent sessions and 3 bullish convergent sessions. Over the last 5 weeks (24 trading sessions), there were 7 bearish divergent sessions, 9 bullish convergent sessions, and 8 divergent sessions (between the daily percentage changes and the market internals).

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UVOL/DVOL and ADVANCES vs DECLINERS for NYSE and NASDAQ
The Bulls continue their action from last week; do note, however, that volumes have been dwindling.  

THE WEEK AHEAD

US Economic Releases

1. Mon 13 Apr
   • Nothing of note
2. Tue 14 Apr
   • Core PPI m/m
   • PPI m/m
3. Wed 15 Apr
   • Empire State Manufacturing Index
4. Thu 16 Apr
   • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
   • Unemployment Claims
5. Fri 17 Apr
   •  FOMC Member Waller Speaks

International Releases

1. Mon 13 Apr
   • Nothing of note
2. Tue 14 Apr
   • UK: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
   • EU: ECB President Lagarde Speaks
3. Wed 15 Apr
   • UK: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
   • EU: ECB President Lagarde Speaks
   • AU: Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
4. Thu 16 Apr
   • UK: GDP m/m
5. Fri 17 Apr
   • Nothing of note

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Week Ahead
The development of ceasefire talks regarding the war in the Middle East will remain the driver of market movements, with current agreements proving fragile and energy exports from the region not yet normalized. Producer prices in the US will take the data spotlight in the US, quantifying the initial impact of the surge in energy prices for goods producers. In Europe, trade figures and industrial production are also awaited. A busy week in China will feature its GDP, trade figures, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, housing prices, and credit aggregates. Meanwhile, major financial companies in the US will release earnings, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and BlackRock. Elsewhere, TSMC and ASML will set the latest guidance for AI. On the politics front, elections in Hungary are due to shape the policy direction of the EU. Lastly, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund will hold spring meetings.

Americas
US–Iran negotiations are set to remain a key focus for markets next week, both in the United States and globally. At the same time, investor attention will shift to the start of the earnings season. Major companies due to report quarterly results include Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Laboratories, PepsiCo, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, and Netflix. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak, which could provide further insight into the policy outlook—particularly after March’s CPI report showed inflation rising to a two-year high, driven by higher energy prices. However, core inflation data suggested that the full impact of the oil shock has yet to feed through to underlying prices. On the data front, March producer price index (PPI) figures are due, with headline prices expected to surge 1.2% month-on-month, while core PPI is seen rising 0.5%, matching February’s pace. Industrial production growth likely slowed to 0.1%, and existing home sales are expected to ease to 4.01 million from 4.09 million in February. Additional releases include foreign trade prices, the NAHB Housing Market Index, capital flows data, and regional activity indicators such as the NY Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes. Elsewhere in the Americas, Canada’s housing starts and Brazil’s retail sales will also be closely watched.

Europe
A relatively light week for new data releases in Europe will maintain the spotlight on geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the war in GCC countries, both vital energy sources for European economies. Final inflation readings for March in the Eurozone, its main members, the UK, Sweden, and Norway will quantify the initial impact of the surge in energy prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Also on the price front, Germany’s wholesale price data will also unveil insights on the impact of tight LNG supplies. In the meantime, both the Eurozone and the UK will release their trade balances and industrial production from February, still under high scrutiny due to tariffs from the US. On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank will post their accounts from the last monetary policy decisions. Retail sales gauges will be featured from the UK and Turkey. Outside economic data, earnings results from ASML, LVMH, Hermes, and BMW will be featured. On the political front, parliamentary elections in Hungary will be closely watched by the world as it is due to shape EU policy and its relationship with other major economies, as incumbent PM Orban has repeatedly tested his veto power.

Asia Pacific
In China, a heavy data calendar will provide investors with fresh insight into the economy’s performance. GDP growth for Q1 is expected to accelerate to 5.0% from 4.5% in Q4 2025. The country’s trade surplus is also projected to widen slightly to $112 billion in March, up from $101.9 billion a year earlier. Meanwhile, industrial production and retail sales are likely to have slowed in March, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.2% from 5.3%. New yuan loans are forecast to rise further to CNY 3.4 trillion. In Japan, the economic calendar is relatively light. Machinery orders are expected to decline again in February, while the Reuters Tankan index and final industrial production figures are also due. In India, annual consumer inflation is forecast to rise to 3.48% in March from 3.21% previously, while wholesale price growth is expected to pick up to 3.0% from 2.13%. In Australia, the NAB business confidence survey and Westpac consumer confidence index will offer insight into sentiment. The labour market is also in focus, with the economy expected to have added around 20,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%. Elsewhere in the region, Singapore will release GDP and trade data, while South Korea will report unemployment figures. Inflation readings are also due from Malaysia, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

By andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com | 2026 APRIL 10

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

Please stay hedged, my fellow penguins.
At the time of writing, POTUS just sent another wall of text on X. It does not sound positive.

Looking at things, I feel that we are in for a Down Friday Down Monday (DFDM). If this happens, it would provide a very strong signal for a reversal in the current bullish trend.

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Stay Hedged, my Penguin Friends.

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(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)