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Daily Market Analysis – 20260410

DMA of 2026 APRIL 10 FRIDAY AMC.

The stock market ended a constructive week on a subdued note, with the S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%), and DJIA (-0.6%) spending today’s session in a relatively tight range near their baselines.

It was a quiet day on the geopolitical front ahead of this weekend’s talks between the U.S. and Iran that will be led by Vice President Vance. President Trump told The New York Post that the U.S. military will resume strikes against Iran if negotiations do not result in a deal, but that had little effect on stocks or oil prices. WTI crude traded in a stable range around the $98 per barrel mark, and crude oil futures settled today’s session $1.34 lower (-1.4%) at $96.55 per barrel.

The market received a full slate of economic data this morning, which offered an early look at how the Iran conflict is affecting inflation and consumer sentiment readings. The headline March CPI reading (0.9%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) came in hotter-than-expected due to the surge in energy prices, while the core reading (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) was better than feared. Additionally, the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April fell to 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus: 52.0), though the market had a muted response to the report as nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7.

Strength was mixed today, with four S&P 500 sectors finishing in positive territory.

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.8%) captured the widest gain, which helped prevent further losses at the index level. Semiconductor stocks put together another strong showing after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 370.60, +5.11, +1.40%) reported upside Q1 revenues, which resulted in solid gains across large chipmakers such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 245.04, +8.40, +3.55%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 188.74, +4.84, +2.63%).

Super Micro Computer (SMCI 25.26, +2.04, +8.79%) and Coherent (COHR 307.50, +23.33, +8.21%) captured even wider gains, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.3% higher.

Though not a component of the S&P 500, CoreWeave (CRWV 102.00, +10.00, +10.87%) posted another double-digit gain after announcing a multi-year agreement with Anthropic to support the development and training of its Claude family of AI models.

Conversely, Anthropic’s launch of its Managed Agents platform weighed heavily on Akamai Tech (AKAM 91.35, -18.26, -16.66%) amid intensifying fears around AI-driven disruption of traditional SaaS and cloud workflows. The broader software space lagged again today, with the iShares GS Software ETF finishing 2.6% lower.

Elsewhere, solid gains in Amazon (AMZN 238.38, +4.73, +2.02%) and Tesla (TSLA 349.00, +3.38, +0.98%) helped the consumer discretionary sector (+0.6%) finish near the top of the leaderboard.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.4% higher, contributing to the outperformance of the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%) relative to the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.8%).

The materials (+0.6%) and real estate (+0.2%) sectors also captured gains, while the other seven S&P 500 sectors finished lower.

The defensive consumer staples (-1.4%) and health care sectors (-1.3%) were the worst performers, while the energy sector (-0.8%) lagged amid the stabilization in oil prices.

Meanwhile, the financials sector (-1.1%) also underperformed, but major banking names such as Goldman Sachs (GS 907.80, +4.08, +0.45%) and Citigroup (C 124.36, -0.56, -0.45%) were among the more resilient components ahead of their earnings releases next week.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) charted modest losses.

Overall, AI-driven enthusiasm in semiconductor and mega-cap growth names helped offset broader weakness across most sectors, keeping the major averages relatively contained. Looking ahead, the market will remain highly attuned to any developments out of this weekend’s U.S.-Iran talks, which could upend the progress stocks made this week.

U.S. Treasuries had a modestly lower showing on Friday, giving back a chunk of their midweek gains. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.80% (-3 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.32% (-3 basis points this week). 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +6.0% YTD
  • DJIA: -0.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: -0.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -1.5% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed lower at 47917 (-0.56%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 22903 (+0.35%). 
  • S&P 500 closed lower at 6817 (-0.11%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,066 mln vs avg. of 1,439 mln; NASDAQ 8,797 mln vs avg. of 9,190 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (422 mln/632 mln) and Nasdaq (5214 mln/3514 mln). 
  • Decliners led advancers (NYSE 1215/1523; NASDAQ 1929/2870)
  • New 52-week lows outpacing new 52-week highs on Nasdaq but not NYSE (NYSE 90/53, NASDAQ 171/177).

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries had a modestly lower showing on Friday, giving back a chunk of their midweek gains. The trading day started in flat fashion after a quiet night in terms of new geopolitical developments, as the market maintained a measure of optimism ahead of this weekend’s U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan led by Vice President Vance. Treasuries briefly extended to fresh session highs in immediate reaction to the March CPI report, which was cooler than expected at the Core level (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) while the headline reading (0.9%; Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) was hotter than expected. The brief push to fresh highs gave way to a reversal that found support once yields on most tenors returned to their intraday highs from Thursday while relative weakness in the 2-yr note lifted its yield back to levels from Tuesday. Today’s retreat left the Treasury complex with only a portion of its midweek gains and no change in the 2s10s spread, which remained at 52 bps. Crude oil ended a volatile week with a loss of nearly $15/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 98.66, losing 1.5% for the week.

Yields

  • 2-yr: +2 bps to 3.80% (-3 bps this week)
  • 3-yr: +1 bp to 3.82% (-4 bps this week)
  • 5-yr: +2 bps to 3.94% (-5 bps this week)
  • 10-yr: +2 bps to 4.32% (-3 bps this week)
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.91% (-1 bp this week)

CURRENCIES

The dollar index remained below 99 on Friday, as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and assess the latest US CPI report. US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, while Israel has agreed to hold talks with Lebanon’s government, raising hopes of de-escalation in the region. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping oil prices elevated. The impact of the war with Iran is already being reflected in US inflation data. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024 and in line with expectations. Core CPI, however, rose more modestly to 2.6% from 2.5%, suggesting that the full impact of the oil shock has yet to pass through to underlying inflation. Investors currently see little chance of another interest-rate cut by the Fed in 2026 and many economists are maintaining forecasts for one or more reductions later in the year.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.1730
  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.3468
  • USD/CNH: -0.1% to 6.8247
  • USD/JPY: +0.2% to 159.29

Sterling Rises to Over One-Month High
The British pound edged above $1.34, marking its strongest level since late February and on track for a nearly 1.5% weekly gain against the dollar, supported by optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and a cautious stance ahead of US-Iran ceasefire talks this weekend. Ukraine’s lead negotiator hinted at progress in talks with Russia, raising hopes for a swift end to Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Meanwhile, US-Iran negotiations are set for Saturday, though tensions remain high as Tehran maintains its Strait of Hormuz blockade, the worst energy disruption in history. President Trump balanced optimism with warnings over Iran’s new shipping fees. On the monetary front, rising oil prices stoked inflation fears, leading markets to price in a more hawkish Bank of England, with traders now expecting at least one BoE rate hike by end-2026.

Euro Rises to 6-Week High
The euro traded above $1.17, reaching its highest level since late February and heading for a nearly 1.5% weekly gain against the US dollar, amid optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and as investors adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach ahead of the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations this weekend. Ukraine’s lead negotiator signaled progress in talks with Russia, suggesting a resolution to the conflict could be achieved sooner than expected. Meanwhile, US and Iranian negotiators are set to meet on Saturday, though tensions remain elevated. Tehran continues its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while US President Trump struck a dual tone, expressing optimism about a possible deal but later warning Iran over new fees imposed on ships transiting the vital waterway. On the monetary policy front, rising oil prices stoked inflation fears, leading markets to price in a more hawkish ECB, with traders expecting at least two rate hikes by end-2026.

Offshore Yuan Weakens, Still Set for Weekly Gain
The offshore yuan edged lower to around 6.83 per dollar, ending a five-session winning streak, after the People’s Bank of China reaffirmed its cautious monetary easing stance, even as consumer inflation slowed and producer prices rebounded. Annual consumer inflation slowed more than expected to 1% in March 2026 from 1.3% in February, as the seasonal boost from holiday spending faded. The PBoC maintained its cautious stance at a quarterly meeting last month, signaling limited appetite for aggressive easing after a modest rate cut in 2025. Meanwhile, producer prices rose 0.5%, beating forecasts and marking the first increase since September 2022, driven partly by higher global energy costs amid Middle East tensions. While China’s strategic reserves and diversified energy supply have cushioned the impact, signs of domestic pass-through are emerging, as authorities raised retail fuel prices for the third time since late February. Over the week, the yuan is set for its second weekly gain.

Yen Holds Steady as Markets Watch US-Iran Talks
The Japanese yen steadied around 159 per dollar on Friday, drawing some support as a two-week US-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and eased stagflation concerns. Investors are now focused on diplomatic talks in Islamabad this weekend, where Vice President JD Vance will lead a US delegation in meetings with Iranian officials. However, sentiment remained cautious amid Israeli strikes on Lebanon and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that risk undermining the fragile truce. The yen remains down about 2% since the start of the conflict, reflecting concerns that surging energy costs from the Iran war could fuel inflation while weighing on Japan’s growth outlook. Markets are now watching for signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ahead of the April 28 policy decision, following his guidance-style communication approach seen ahead of the last rate hike in December.

COMMODITIES

Oil prices fell 2.35% on Friday, with WTI crude trading around $95.5 per barrel as markets focused on shifting geopolitical developments and ongoing negotiations in the Middle East. The move came amid continued uncertainty around US–Iran talks, with traders weighing the potential for de-escalation against lingering risks to regional stability. Concerns over possible disruptions to shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to support a geopolitical risk premium in oil markets, even as immediate supply disruption fears remained contained. Despite the daily decline, crude oil remains up 10.28% over the period, reflecting sustained sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and supply-side risk conditions.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at -$1.18

Commodities

  • Crude Oil -1.34 @ 96.55
  • Nat Gas -0.02 @ 2.65
  • Gold -29.80 @ 4787.30
  • Silver +0.01 @ 76.44
  • Copper +0.12 @ 5.88

Silver Rises to $75.6 on Rate Cut Hopes and US-Iran Talks
Silver climbed to $75.6 per ounce Friday, heading for a third consecutive weekly gain, lifted by a weaker dollar and investor focus on US-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad. The metal surged over 4% this week, further supported by expectations of earlier and deeper US interest rate cuts, which bolster demand for non-yielding assets. A two-week US-Iran ceasefire helped drive a sharp drop in oil prices, easing fears of resurgent inflation. However, the fragile truce faced pressure Friday, as Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz disruptions threatened negotiations. The latest US CPI report, the first since the conflict, showed inflation at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, with a 0.9% monthly jump, the steepest since mid-2022. Markets now price in a 30% chance of at least a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

Gold Rises on Rate Cut Bets and US-Iran Talks
Gold edged up to $4,780 per ounce on Friday, heading for a third straight weekly gain, buoyed by a weaker dollar and investor focus on US-Iran diplomatic talks in Islamabad this weekend. The metal gained 2% this week as expectations of earlier US rate cuts boosted non-yielding assets, while a two-week ceasefire eased oil prices and inflation concerns. However, the fragile truce showed signs of strain on Friday, as Israeli strikes on Lebanon and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threatened to complicate negotiations. Meanwhile, the latest US CPI report, the first since the conflict began, revealed inflation climbing to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, with the monthly index surging 0.9%, the steepest rise since mid-2022. Markets now price in a 30% chance of at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. In physical markets, gold demand in India ticked up ahead of a key festival, while premiums in China narrowed as retail demand softened.

Copper Set for Third Weekly Gain
Copper futures steadied around $5.75 per pound on Friday and were on track for a third consecutive weekly advance, supported by optimism that the US-Iran ceasefire will hold and eventually lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The potential reopening of the vital waterway is expected to ease investor concerns over inflation and slowing global industrial activity, which have clouded metals demand. Investors are now focused on diplomatic talks in Islamabad this weekend, where Vice President JD Vance will lead a US delegation in meetings with Iranian officials. However, sentiment remained fragile amid Israeli strikes in Lebanon and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that could undermine the peace process. At the same time, markets were weighed by rising copper inventories, with stockpiles in LME warehouses climbing to an eight-year high, signaling subdued demand conditions.

Baltic Dry Index Extends Rally Into 6th Day
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was up for a sixth straight session on Friday, rising 1.9% to its highest since March 4 at 2,201 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, also advanced for the sixth day running, climbing 2.6% to 3,318 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 0.7% to 1,855 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index increased 1.2% to 1,308 points. The benchmark index rose 6.5% for the week, marking its strongest weekly performance since early February.

Palm Oil Retreats, Weekly Loss in Sight
Malaysian palm oil futures eased slightly, hovering below MYR 4,650 per tonne after recent gains, pressured by a firmer ringgit. The benchmark contract is heading for a weekly drop of over 4%, breaking a five-week winning streak, after Malaysian Palm Oil Board monthly data showed March production rose 7.21% month-on-month to 1.38 million tonnes. Still, weakness was limited as palm oil inventories fell 16.14% last month to 2.27 million tonnes while exports surged 40.69% to 1.55 million tonnes. Broader edible oil markets also strengthened, with strength in Dalian and Chicago contracts, reflecting hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in Iran. In India, the top buyer, expectations of restocking ahead of stronger seasonal demand grew after imports dropped 19% to a three-month low in March. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s largest grower, issued a decree outlining its biofuel mandate timeline. Traders now await fresh shipment estimates from cargo surveyors later today for more direction.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a solid finish to the week, encouraged by a lack of reports about additional missile strikes in the Middle East.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: +1.8%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.6%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.5%,
  • India’s Sensex: +1.2%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: +1.4%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%.

In news:

  • China’s CPI deflated again in March while PPI came in above zero for the first time since late 2022.
  • The Bank of Korea left its policy rate at 2.50%, as expected, warning about the risk of higher prices and lower growth resulting from the U.S.-Iran conflict.

In economic data:

  • China’s March CPI -0.7% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 1.0%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.3%). March PPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.9%)
  • Japan’s March PPI 0.8% m/m (expected 0.9%; last 0.1%); 2.6% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.1%). March Bank Lending 4.8% yr/yr (expected 4.4%; last 4.5%)
  • Australia’s February Building Approvals 29.7% m/m, as expected (last -7.2%); 14.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 15.7%). February Private House Approvals 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 1.1%)
  • New Zealand’s March Business PMI 53.2 (last 54.8)

Major European indices are seeking a higher finish to the week.

  • STOXX Europe 600: +0.7%,
  • Germany’s DAX: +0.9%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.3%,
  • France’s CAC 40: +0.6%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.7%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%.

In news:

  • Germany’s economy minister voiced opposition to taxing surplus profits of energy companies but also spoke in favor of measures to offset the impact of high energy prices for consumers.
  • Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday with polls pointing to a tight race.

In economic data:

  • Germany’s March CPI 1.1% m/m, as expected (last 0.2%); 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.9%)
  • Italy’s February Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 0.5% yr/yr, as expected (last -0.6%)
  • Swiss March SECO Consumer Climate -43 (expected -32; last -30)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • March CPI 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior 0.3%, March Core CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%
  • February Factory Orders 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders weren’t as flat as the headline suggests. On the contrary, they were quite strong when the volatile transportation component was excluded.
  • April Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim 47.6 (Briefing.com consensus 52.0); Prior 53.3
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the fallout from the Iran conflict was the driver of the big drop in sentiment and big rise in year-ahead inflation expectations in April (note: nearly all responses to the survey were captured before the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7).
  • The Treasury Department reported a $164.1 billion deficit for March (Briefing.com consensus -$160.0 bln), which was a bit wider than the $160.5 billion deficit reported for March 2025. Receipts totaled $385.0 billion, while outlays reached $549.0 billion.
  • Iran is keeping restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, but other aspects of the ceasefire are holding. U.S. and Iranian officials will meet on Saturday, according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump says Iran “better stop” charging tolls on the Strait of Hormuz; says Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz
  • The Senate hearing for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair has been delayed but still should happen soon, CNBC
  • Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon next week will be preparatory talks, according to WSJ
  • The White House warned staff not to place bets on prediction markets, according to WSJ
  • Artemis II astronauts will return home tonight, Reuters
  • Anthropic is mulling developing artificial intelligence chips, according to Reuters
  • U.S. will ask Iran to release detained Americans during talks this weekend, according to Washington Post
  • President Trump in an interview with the NY Post says U.S. military is preparing to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks fail this weekend
  • Large banks coming up with new tools to bet against private credit, according to WSJ
  • SEC considering new exemption rule for foreign bank rescues, according to Bloomberg
  • Additional U.S. forces deploying to Middle East ahead of talks this weekend, according to WSJ

US Budget Deficit Widens in March
The US government recorded a $164.1 billion budget deficit in March 2026, compared with a $160.5 billion deficit a year earlier, and missing forecasts of $156.7 billion. Outlays increased to $549 billion from $528.2 billion, with most spending directed to social security at $139 billion, healthcare at $90 billion, and national defense at $69 billion. Receipts rose to $384.9 billion from $367.6 billion, driven by individual income taxes at $189 billion, social insurance and retirement at $152 billion, and customs duties at $22 billion.

US CPI Soars 0.9% MoM in March, Most Since 2022
The Consumer Price Index in the United States increased 0.9% month-over-month in March 2026, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February and in line with forecasts. Energy prices rose 10.9%, led by a 21.2% jump in gasoline which accounted for nearly three quarters of the increase due to the impact of the war with Iran. The shelter index also increased, rising 0.3%. The price for food was unchanged.

US Core Consumer Price Inch Higher
Core consumer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in March of 2026, maintaining the growth rate from February and slightly below market expectations of a sharper 0.3% increase. Costs rose firmly for transportation services (0.6%), lifted by the indirect impact from higher energy prices after the outbreak of war in the Middle East prevented tanker flows from the Strait of Hormuz. In the meantime, prices also rose firmly for shelter (0.3%), the most so far this year, and apparel (1%). In turn, prices rose less for new vehicles (0.1%) and fell sharply for used cars and trucks (-0.4%). From the previous year, core consumer prices rose by 2.6%.

US Core Inflation Rises Less than Expected
The annual core inflation rate in the United States, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.6% in March of 2026 from 2.5% in the previous two months, slightly below market expectations that it would have risen to 2.7%. Inflation was high for services that exclude energy services (3%), including shelter (3%), transportation services (4.1%), and medical care services (3.7%). Meanwhile, commodities less food and energy inflation was at 2.6%, as higher rates for apparel (3.4%) offset the decline in price of used cars and trucks (-3.2%).

US Inflation Rate Accelerates to 3.3%, Highest in About 2 Years
The annual inflation rate in the US jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in both February and January. Figures came in line with forecasts, with the rise primarily driven by higher energy costs (12.5%), mostly gasoline (up 18.9%) and fuel oil (44.2%), due to the war with Iran. On the other hand, prices for used cars and trucks continued to decline (-3.2% vs -3.2%) while inflation steadied for shelter (3% vs 3%) and eased for food (2.7% vs 3.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February and also in line with forecasts, boosted by a 21.2% jump in gas prices. Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes food and energy, also picked up though much more moderately, to an annual rate of 2.6%, compared to forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.2%.

US Factory Orders Stall for 2nd Month
New orders for manufactured goods in the US were unchanged from the previous month at $619.6 billion in February of 2026, contrasting slightly with the market expectations of a 0.2% decline to mark the second consecutive stall. Orders of durable goods sank by 1.3% to $315.9 billion due to the plunge in transportation equipment (-5.3% to $106.3 billion), mostly on nondefense aircraft and parts orders (-28.6% to $19.2 billion). This was offset by higher orders of machinery (1.7% to $41.2 billion), primary metals (2.4% to $28.7 billion), and fabricated metal products (0.5% to $42.8 billion). In turn, orders of nondurable goods rose by 1.5% to $303.7 billion.

US Consumer Sentiment Collapses to Record Low
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 11% to a historic low of 47.6 in early April 2026, far below both market expectations of 52 and last year’s level by 9%. Nearly all surveys (98%) were conducted before the temporary cease-fire announcement, underscoring the Iran conflict’s immediate impact on confidence. Sentiment declined across all demographics, as well as every index component, signaling a broad-based drop. One-year business condition expectations crashed 20%, while assessments of personal finances fell 11%, with consumers citing rising prices and shrinking asset values as key concerns. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles deteriorated further, again due to high costs linked to the war. Year-ahead inflation expectations spiked to 4.8% from 3.8% in March, the largest one-month jump since April 2025, while long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, the highest since November 2025.

US 1-Year Inflation Outlook Hits 8-Month High
The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the survey of the University of Michigan, picked up to 4.8% in April 2026, the steepest since August 2025, from 3.8% in the prior month, preliminary estimates showed. In the meantime, the five-year inflation outlook rose to 3.4%, the highest in five months, from 3.2% previously.

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

I am sick and down with some kind of a flu-ish bug.
The markets performed as expected last night. Volumes were lower than expected.

The Samurai mentioned that he expected a short squeeze BMC, and it happened at about 3 am. I got my volatility crush as he predicted, too.

On the home front, I have a healthier IC. As I said before, I still got some time.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)