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Daily Market Analysis – 20260409

DMA of 2026 APRIL 09 THURSDAY AMC.

The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.6%) saw a meaningful extension of yesterday’s gains after shaking off some early apprehension tied to lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

The major averages spent most of the morning in modestly negative territory as reports indicated that the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed to tanker traffic and that Israel continued strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting threats from Iran to abandon the fragile two-week ceasefire reached Tuesday night.

Stocks found their footing shortly before midday following a Reuters report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed his aides to open direct negotiations with Lebanon. Those talks are set to begin next week, and Israel has stated that it will continue to launch strikes against Hezbollah in the interim, which could lead to further volatility.

Still, the headline prompted a decisive upward move in equities and a considerable drop in oil prices. Crude oil futures settled today’s session $3.49 higher (+3.7%) at $97.89 per barrel, well off session highs that saw WTI crude eclipse the $102 per barrel mark.

The energy sector (-1.2%) ceded its earlier gains in turn, finishing firmly lower. On an unrelated note, Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL 377.97, -70.31, -15.68%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component today after the sudden death of Murray Stahl, the company’s largest shareholder and longtime board member.

The health care sector (-0.2%) was the only other S&P 500 sector to close without a gain, as the other nine sectors moved higher.

After what felt like a weeks-long drought in meaningful corporate news, the recent improvement in the geopolitical backdrop has helped reignite momentum in the AI trade, with several notable headlines involving hyperscalers emerging today.

The consumer discretionary sector (+2.5%) led the advance, supported by a sharp gain in Amazon (AMZN 233.65, +12.40, +5.60%) after CEO Andy Jassy released his annual shareholder letter, reiterating the company’s willingness to make significant AI investments. The company also announced plans to invest $25 billion in data centers in Mississippi.

Meta Platforms (META 628.39, +15.97, +2.61%) also captured a solid gain after announcing an expansion of its $21 billion AI infrastructure deal with CoreWeave (CRWV 92.00, +3.10, +3.49%).

Some of those gains also made their way downstream, as stocks set to benefit from the AI data center buildout cycle put up solid performances. Corning (GLW 169.80, +4.70, +2.85%), Caterpillar (CAT 787.07, +15.49, +2.01%), and GE Vernova (GEV 968.02, +31.95, +3.41%) all traded to fresh record highs today, with the latter two names helping the industrials sector (+1.0%) notch a solid gain.

Meanwhile, the information technology (+0.4%) notched a more modest gain. There was some renewed AI enthusiasm, with Sandisk (SNDK 851.57, +70.67, +9.05%) posting another monster gain, while large chip makers such as NVIDIA (NVDA 183.94, +1.86, +1.02%) and Intel (INTC 61.72, +2.77, +4.70%) helped push the PHLX Semiconductor Index 2.1% higher.

However, those gains came at the expense of software stocks such as ServiceNow (NOW 89.81, -7.66, -7.86%) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 130.54, -10.22, -7.26%), which pushed the iShares GS Software ETF 3.9% lower.

Elsewhere, the consumer staples (+0.9%) and utilities (+0.8%) sectors opened to solid gains amid the geopolitical uncertainty, and maintained the bulk of the gains throughout the session. Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.6%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) followed a similar trajectory to the major averages.

All told, today’s session marked another constructive step forward for equities, as improving geopolitical conditions provided a supportive backdrop for a continued rebound in the broader market while enthusiasm for the AI trade began to return. The market will face an important test tomorrow in the form of the March CPI report (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), which will be the first real test of whether inflation is broadening beyond energy into the core basket.

U.S. Treasuries endured some Thursday volatility that produced a modest loss in the long bond while 5s and shorter tenors eked out slim gains. Today’s $22 billion 30-year bond reopening was met with decent, but unimpressive demand. The 2-year note yield settled down one basis point at 3.78%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.29%. 

BENCHMARK INDICES YEAR-TO-DATE

  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +6.2% YTD
  • DJIA: +0.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: -0.3% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -1.8% YTD

MARKET INTERNALS

  • DOW closed higher at 48185 (+0.58%). 
  • Nasdaq closed higher at 22822 (+0.83%). 
  • S&P 500 closed higher at 6824 (+0.62%). 
  • Action came on lower than average volume (NYSE 1,175 mln vs avg. of 1,438 mln; NASDAQ 8,761 mln vs avg. of 9,177 mln),
  • Advancing/declining volume for NYSE (610 mln/552 mln) and Nasdaq (5451 mln/3242 mln). 
  • Advancers led decliners (NYSE 1755/990; NASDAQ 2745/2049)
  • New 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows (NYSE 140/46, NASDAQ 223/168).

After-Hours Action

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SLP +12.5%, CARS +2.2% (also provides update, $90 mln share buyback auth increase; reaffirms guidance for Q1 and FY26; initiates cost reduction program, which includes 11% workforce reduction)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ANTX +1.3% (files for $300 mln share offering; also files for offering by selling shareholders), SYK +1.2% (provides update on cybersecurity incident; had a material impact on Q1 financials but little impact on FY26 guidance), VG +0.6% (discloses LNG cargos and recognized revenue for Q1), RKLB +0.6% (signs multi-launch deal with Institute for Q-shu), SMCI +0.4% (announces Gold Series enterprise server solutions), EBS +0.4% (partners with B.C. Provincial Health to supply NARCAN Nasal Spray), MSFT +0.1% (OpenAI says it holds a computing edge over Anthropic, according to Bloomberg)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: TGLS -9.9%, WDFC -0.7%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: NMG -12.4% (US$297 mln equity financing package), HSDT -1.1% (names new COO), COP -1% (sent team to Venezuela to evaluate oil prospects, according to Bloomberg), DGXX -0.4% (files for $750 mln mixed securities shelf offering), EOG -0.4% (updates Q1 tax expense), COHR -0.1% (announces advancements in its silicon carbide epitaxy capabilities)

BONDS AND YIELDS

U.S. Treasuries endured some Thursday volatility that produced a modest loss in the long bond while 5s and shorter tenors eked out slim gains. The market was caught in a cross-current, starting the day with some renewed worries that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire might not hold due to Israel’s continued attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Treasuries backed off their starting levels in mid-morning trade, cutting into the remainder of their gains from yesterday. However, the entire complex bounced in the late morning, responding to reports that Israel will start negotiations with Lebanon. That bounce lifted Treasuries into the green with the market notching highs shortly after today’s $22 bln 30-yr bond reopening, which met decent, but unimpressive demand. The final 90 minutes of trade saw some renewed selling that returned most tenors to their starting levels amid continued unease about the fluid nature of the Iran conflict. The ongoing focus on the conflict overshadowed the release of a Personal Income/Outlays report for February, which showed an unexpected drop in Personal Income (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and just a slight deceleration in the Core PCE Price Index to 3.0% from 3.1% year-over-year. Crude oil settled near $100/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 98.82.

Yields

  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 3.78%
  • 3-yr: UNCH at 3.81%
  • 5-yr: -1 bp to 3.92%
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.29%
  • 30-yr: +1 bp to 4.90%

CURRENCIES

The dollar index pared early gains to trade slightly lower, slipping below 99 on Thursday to its weakest level in more than two weeks. Investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East, where a recently announced ceasefire appeared increasingly fragile ahead of peace talks scheduled for Friday. The agreement showed signs of strain as Israel maintained its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Tehran accused the US of violating the deal. The Strait of Hormuz also remained closed. On the data front, February PCE inflation rose in line with expectations, while Q4 GDP growth was revised lower and initial jobless claims edged up. Attention turns to the March CPI report due tomorrow for insights into how the Middle East conflict has impacted prices so far. Minutes from the FOMC’s March meeting showed policymakers were concerned that the war could lead to sustained inflation requiring further rate hikes, although they still expected one rate cut this year.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD: +0.3% to 1.1699
  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.3432
  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.8293
  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 159.03

Sterling Holds Near $1.34 Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The British pound stabilized just under $1.34 as investors monitored the increasingly fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Tensions surged after Israel launched its most severe airstrikes on Lebanon yet, causing hundreds of casualties and provoking Iranian threats of retaliation. Tehran ruled out further peace negotiations with the US, while the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensified pressure on the already shaky truce, driving oil prices upward. Compounding the uncertainty, US President Donald Trump announced that US forces would remain deployed near Iran until a “real agreement” is reached. Amid these developments, financial markets are anticipating a greater chance of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, with at least one increase projected by the end of 2026.

Euro Holds Near $1.17 Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty
The euro steadied just below the $1.17 level as investors weighed the fragility of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Tensions escalated after Israel conducted its most intense airstrikes yet on Lebanon, resulting in hundreds of casualties and triggering threats of retaliation from Iran. Tehran dismissed the prospect of further peace talks with the US, while the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz added pressure to an already fragile truce, pushing oil prices higher. Adding to the uncertainty, US President Donald Trump declared that US forces would maintain their presence near Iran until a “real agreement” is secured. Against this backdrop, markets are pricing in a higher likelihood of additional interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, with at least two increases now expected by the end of 2026.

Yuan Holds Firm at 3-Year Peak
The offshore yuan held above 6.83 per USD, pausing near an over three-year high as investors weighed a fragile US–Iran ceasefire. The agreement, tied to a 10-point proposal and contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, initially boosted risk appetite and weakened the dollar. However, sentiment turned cautious after fresh accusations from Iran of violations, citing disputes over uranium enrichment, continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and alleged airspace breaches. Meanwhile, China remains relatively better positioned among Asian peers, with the yuan up about 1.0% against the dollar this month and 2.4% firmer year-to-date, as markets price in reduced geopolitical risk. The currency’s resilience has been supported by China’s large oil stockpiles and comparatively stable energy supply chains. Focus now turns to upcoming inflation numbers due Friday, expected to show a modest rise in annual consumer prices and a return to yearly growth in producer prices for the first time since 2022.

Yen Weakens as Dollar, Oil Rebound
The Japanese yen slipped toward 159 per dollar on Thursday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as the dollar and oil recovered amid ongoing uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire. A senior Iranian official stated that elements of the ceasefire proposal had already been breached following fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while Tehran continued to largely block the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, the yen had rallied as much as 1% after the ceasefire announcement, reflecting Japan’s sensitivity to Middle East oil supply shocks. Meanwhile, a former Bank of Japan official suggested the central bank is likely to raise its policy rate this month to avoid falling behind in controlling inflation. Markets are now closely watching for any signals from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ahead of the April 28 policy announcement, similar to the guidance he provided in December before the last rate increase.

COMMODITIES

Brent crude futures climbed above $96 per barrel and WTI crude futures climbed above $98 per barrel on Friday as Israeli strikes on Lebanon and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz strained diplomatic efforts, but prices were still on track to drop more than 10% for the week after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained that operations in Lebanon fall outside the scope of the US-Iran truce, although Washington has scheduled talks next week with Israel and Lebanon to address broader ceasefire negotiations. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned Iran over imposing transit fees in Hormuz, criticizing its handling of oil flows. The crucial waterway remains largely closed as shipowners wait for clearer guidance on access. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia said its oil production capacity has been reduced by roughly 600k barrels per day following attacks on energy facilities, while a major pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz was also struck.

The spread between Brent and WTI is currently at -$2.07

Commodities

  • Crude Oil +3.49 @ 97.89
  • Nat Gas -0.05 @ 2.67
  • Gold +40.40 @ 4817.10
  • Silver +1.03 @ 76.43
  • Copper -0.02 @ 5.76

Gold Rises Slightly Amid Middle East Tensions
Gold edged higher to $4,750 per ounce on Thursday, as investors weighed the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire amid escalating Middle East conflict, while the surge in oil prices heightened concerns over energy inflation. The precious metal hovered near its highest level since March 19, supported by a slightly weaker dollar, as traders monitored whether the ceasefire would hold. Key disputes remain unresolved, and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. US President Donald Trump warned of major escalation if Iran rejects a deal, while Israel’s deadliest attack in Lebanon, killing over 250, prompted Tehran to threaten retaliation. Since the war began on February 28, gold has lost over 11%, as soaring oil prices dampened expectations of US rate cuts in 2026.

Copper Retreats on Ceasefire Concerns
Copper futures dropped 1% to around $5.7 per pound on Thursday, giving back gains from the previous session as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire weighed on risk sentiment. A senior Iranian official said elements of the ceasefire proposal had already been breached following fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while Tehran continued to largely block the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, copper had surged nearly 4% after the US, Israel, and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire aimed at enabling negotiations for a potential resolution to the conflict. The temporary reopening of Hormuz is expected to ease investor concerns over inflation and slowing global industrial activity, which have clouded metals demand. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs noted near-term downside risks for copper if the critical waterway remained closed, as higher energy costs could weigh on global economic growth.

Silver Rises to $74.5 on Middle East Tensions
Silver climbed to $74.5 per ounce on Thursday, reflecting investor concerns over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and escalating Middle East conflict. A weaker dollar added to the upward momentum as traders assessed whether the ceasefire would hold. With key disputes unresolved and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, tensions intensified after US President Donald Trump warned of major escalation if Iran rejects a deal. Meanwhile, Israel’s deadliest attack in Lebanon, killing over 250, prompted Tehran to threaten retaliation. Since the war began on February 28, silver has declined nearly 20%, as surging oil prices and fears of energy-driven inflation reduced expectations of US interest rate cuts in 2026.

Rubber Futures Near 2017-Highs
Rubber futures rose above 206 US cents per kilogram, approaching levels not seen since early 2017, partly supported by rising oil prices amid the Middle East fragile ceasefire and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices increase synthetic rubber costs, which makes natural rubber relatively more attractive, often boosting its demand. Further supporting prices, raw material supply in leading Southeast Asian countries remains constrained due to the seasonal low-production “wintering” period between February and May. During this phase, trees shed their leaves and undergo a resting phase, which substantially affects latex production.

European Gas Prices Rebound
European natural gas futures rose to €46.5 per MWh on Thursday, rebounding from a five-week low, as Israeli strikes on Lebanon added to uncertainty over whether the US ceasefire with Iran would hold. Iran once again blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in protest, calling the latest attack a breach of the truce and continuing its strikes on Gulf states. A key point of contention remains whether the ceasefire terms extend to Lebanon, with Tehran and the US-Israeli side offering conflicting interpretations. Meanwhile, Qatar is reportedly mobilizing engineers and workers to restart output at the world’s largest LNG export facility, which has been offline since early March after Iranian strikes severely damaged capacity. While partial production could resume in the coming days, a significant recovery still depends on safe passage through the Strait.

Baltic Dry Index Up for 5th Day
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, advanced for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, rising by 1% to its highest since March 5 at 2,161 points, driven by gains across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, increased 0.5% to an over one-month high of 3,235 points; and the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, added 1% to 1.842 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose 2.5% to 1,293 points.

Palm Oil Firms Ahead of Key Monthly Data
Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,600 per tonne, recovering from recent losses that had pushed prices to a near two-week low. The upturn was supported by bargain hunting, a weaker ringgit, and firmer soyoil prices on the Chicago market. Gains were further boosted by a surge in crude oil prices, driven by doubts over the durability of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which lifted broader commodity sentiment. Meanwhile, Reuters projected the steepest inventory drop in three years for March. In Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, a ministerial decree was issued outlining the timeline for the country’s biofuel mandate. However, the upside was capped by weakness in edible oils on the Dalian exchange and persistent demand concerns in top buyer India, where palm oil imports fell 19% in March. Caution also grew ahead of key data releases, including the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report and inflation figures from major consumer China, both due Friday.

ROTW UPDATES

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a lower note.

  • Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7%,
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.5%,
  • China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.7%,
  • India’s Sensex: -1.2%,
  • South Korea’s Kospi: -1.6%,
  • Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.’

In news:

  • CEO of Japanese shipper Mitsui said that there should be more clarity about activity in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, adding that there were no reports of tankers passing through the strait over the past 24 hours.
  • Foreign investors rushed back into Japanese markets last week, making for a reversal from aggressive selling in the previous week.
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman continues expecting the Kiwi economy to grow in 2026.

In economic data:

  • Japan’s March Household Confidence 33.3 (expected 38.3; last 39.7) and March Machine Tool Orders 28.1% yr/yr (last 24.2%)
  • Hong Kong’s March FX Reserves $430.80 bln (last $439.30 bln)

Major European indices trade in the red amid some doubts about the lasting power of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

  • STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%,
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.8%,
  • U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.2%,
  • France’s CAC 40: -0.6%,
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.1%,
  • Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2%.

In news:

  • The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Board noted that some stresses may be emerging in private credit. However, availability of credit to households increased in Q1 and is expected to increase again in Q2.
  • G7 finance ministers will meet in Washington this weekend.

In economic data:

  • Germany’s February trade surplus EUR19.8 bln (expected surplus of EUR18.1 bln; last surplus of EUR20.3 bln). February Imports 4.7% m/m (expected 4.0%; last -5.1%) and Exports 3.6% m/m (expected 1.0%; last -1.5%)
  • Spain’s February Industrial Production -1.1% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last -0.2%)

U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATES

  • February Personal Income -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior 0.4%, February Personal Spending 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%, February PCE Prices 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.3%, February PCE Prices – Core 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%
  • Weekly Initial Claims 219K (Briefing.com consensus 215K); Prior was revised to 203K from 202K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.794 mln; Prior was revised to 1.832 mln from 1.841 mln
    • The key takeaway from the report is that continuing claims hit their lowest level since May 11, 2024.
  • Q4 GDP – Third Estimate 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior 0.7%, Q4 GDP Deflator – Third Estimate 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%); Prior 3.8%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it suggests the economy closed last year on a sluggish note; however, it wasn’t quite as soft as it appears when taking into account that real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 1.8%.
  • February Wholesale Inventories 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%); Prior -0.3%
  • U.S. officials fear Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could cause the ceasefire to collapse, according to WSJ
  • The ceasefire appears to be on hold after Israel strikes on Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed, according to Bloomberg
  • Iran speaker MB Ghalibaf says “Lebanon is inseparable part of the ceasefire; violations carry explicit cost and strong responses”
  • President Trump says all U.S. assets will remain in place until “such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with”
  • Vice President JD Vance says Israel offered to restrain itself from striking Lebanon as long as the negotiations are occurring, according to Axios
  • President Trump is considering moving troops out of NATO nations that were unhelpful during the Iran war, according to WSJ
  • Investors attempted to remove $20 bln from private credit funds in Q1, according to FT
  • The U.S. is mulling removing sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank, according to Bloomberg
  • Anthropic concluded the tender offer, according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday and asked him to scale back strikes in Lebanon so ceasefire can succeed, according to NBC News
  • Israel open to discussions with Lebanon, but is not open to stopping attacks on Hezbollah, according to Washington Post
  • Attack on Saudi pipeline resulted in 700,000 barrels per day of lost throughput, according to Bloomberg
  • Kuwait’s army dealing with drone attacks, according to Bloomberg

US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Falls Slightly
Mortgage rates have dropped for the first time since the conflict in Iran began, offering a bit of relief to the U.S. housing market as the spring homebuying season gets underway. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.37% on Thursday, down from 6.46% the previous week and 6.62% in the same period last year. The 10-year Treasury yield, closely tied to mortgage rates, declined following Tuesday’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire. However, analysts caution that the economic fallout from the Iran conflict remains far from resolved.

US Natural Gas Storage Rises Further on Season Swing
US utilities and energy companies added 50 billion cubic feed of natural gas to storages to 1.911 trillion cubic feet on the week that ended April 3rd, loosely in line with the median market consensus of a 46 bcf increase, and consolidating the start of the building season. The increase was in line with the surging domestic production levels from recent quarters, buffering US gas prices and consumption from the ongoing global LNG shock as Iranian attacks on Qatari gas facilities and threats to LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf hampered global flows. US stocks were 4.9% above the corresponding period of the previous year, and 4.8% above the current five-year average.

US Wholesale Inventories Defy Expected Fall
US wholesale inventories rose by 0.8% month-over-month to $919.6 billion in February 2026, the most since January 2025, after a downwardly revised 0.3% decrease in January. Data came in stronger than the anticipated 0.4% fall. Nondurable goods stocks rose by 1%, rebounding from a 1.1% decrease in the prior month, as sharp rises in farm products (6.2%) and petroleum (5.2%) more than offset modest declines in miscellaneous nondurables (-0.3%) and groceries (-0.2%). At the same time, inventories grew much faster for durable goods (0.8% vs 0.2%), mainly on account of miscellaneous durable goods (2.5% vs 1.1%), electrical (1.5% vs 1.6%), professional equipment (0.8% vs 1.1%), machinery (0.7% vs 0.1%) and hardware (0.6% vs -0.9%). On a yearly basis, wholesale inventories advanced 1.8% in February.

US Real Consumer Spending Edges Up 0.1% in February
Inflation-adjusted US personal spending inched up 0.1% month-over-month in February 2026, following no growth in January, signaling continued caution among households amid high inflation. Goods spending partially recovered, rising 0.2% after January’s 0.7% decline, driven by a 4.3% rebound in motor vehicle and parts purchases (vs. -4.2% in January). However, other durable goods remained weak, and non-durable goods spending fell for the third consecutive month (-0.2%), weighed down by declines in off-premises food and beverages (-0.8%) and gasoline and energy goods (-0.3%). Services spending also slowed to 0.1% from 0.3%, with softer demand for housing and utilities, healthcare, recreation, and financial services.

US PCE Inflation Accelerates in February
The US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month, matching expectations and accelerating from January’s 0.3% increase. It was the steepest monthly increase in PCE prices in a year as goods prices jumped 0.7%, reversing January’s stagnation, driven by higher costs in motor vehicles and parts, recreational goods, gasoline, clothing, and food. Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 0.2%, down from 0.4%, as healthcare, financial services, and recreational services cooled. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, also climbed 0.4% after a 0.3% gain in January. Annually, the headline PCE index reached 2.8%, while the core index held at 3.0%.

US Personal Income Unexpectedly Falls
US personal income fell by 0.1% month-over-month in February 2026, following a 0.4% increase in January and defying expectations of a 0.3% rise. This marked the first decline since May 2025, largely reflecting a $38.4 billion drop in personal dividend income and a $21.6 decline in current transfer receipts. This was partly offset by a $32.9 billion increase in compensation, including a $25.9 billion rise in wages and salaries and $6.9 billion rise in supplements to wages. There was also a $10.8 billion increase in farm proprietors’ income following a $9.8 billion payment to farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Disposable personal income fell by 0.1%, after increasing by 0.9% in January, while real DPI declined by 0.5% after a downwardly revised 0.6% rise in the prior month.

US Personal Spending Rises 0.5% in February
US personal spending grew 0.5% month-over-month in February 2026, totaling $103.2 billion, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in January and in line with expectations. The rise was fueled by higher goods spending (+$58.7 billion), particularly in motor vehicles and parts (+$32.6 billion), nondurable goods (+$9.1 billion), and clothing and footwear (+$8.7 billion). Spending on services also climbed (+$44.5 billion), driven by healthcare (+$15.7 billion), financial services and insurance (+$10.4 billion), and transportation services (+$9.8 billion). However, inflation-adjusted consumer spending inched up just 0.1% after stagnating in January.

US Jobless Claims Rebound
Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 16,000 from the previous week to 219,000 on the period ending April 4th, ahead of market expectations of 212,000 to mark the largest initial claim count in one month. Still, the number remained firmly below the averages from the second half of the previous year. Likewise, continuing claims, which are a proxy for outstanding unemployment in the country, dropped by 38,000 to 1,794,000, the lowest in nearly two years. The latest release continued to reflect a robust labor market with low firing and low net firing holding against signals of a softer pace of labor force growth.

US Q4 GDP Growth Revised Further Down
The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q4 2025, revised down further from 0.7% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the preliminary reading, mainly due to a downward revision to investment. Consumer spending slowed more than anticipated (1.9% vs 2% in the second estimate), as purchases of both goods (0.3%) and services (2.7%) cooled. Fixed investment also increased less than expected (1.5% vs 1.6%), largely due to a sharp drop in structures (-6.5%) while investment in equipment (4.3%) and intellectual property products (5.4%) remained robust. Residential investment fell more than anticipated (-1.7% vs -0.5%). Exports declined 3.2%, compared to a 3.3% fall, marking the largest contraction since Q2 2023. Imports also fell slightly less than early estimated (-1.0% vs. -1.1%). Meanwhile, government spending and investment contracted sharply (-5.6% vs -5.8%), subtracting 0.99 pp from overall growth, due to the government shutdown. For 2025, the US economy expanded by 2.1%.

US Core PCE Prices Rise in Line with Forecasts
The core PCE price index in the US, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy, rose by 0.4% from the previous month in February of 2026, sustaining the 10-month high recorded over the previous two months. Figures came in line with the market consensus. From the previous year, the core PCE price index rose by 3%, down from 3.1% in the prior month and remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

EARNINGS SEASON AND GUIDANCE

  • Applied Digital (APLD) reports Q3 (Feb) results
  • BlackBerry (BB) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY27 EPS in-line, revs above consensus
  • Buckle (BKE) reports March comparable store net sales +7% yr/yr and net sales +8.2% to $118 mln; also appointed Scott A. Werth to the position of Senior Vice President of Stores, effective March 31, 2026
  • Byrna Technologies (BYRN) reports fiscal first quarter 2026 results
  • Chevron (CVX) sees Q1 headwinds from timing effects, working capital despite higher prices
  • Constellation Brands (STZ) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides FY27 EPS below consensus
  • Costco (COST) reports March adjusted comparable sales of +6.2%
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL) discloses in 10-Q filing that it expects 2026 capital spend of about $5.5 bln for aircraft, fleet modifications, and tech enhancements; Also expects fuel consumption for the remainder of 2026 to remain aligned with capacity changes compared to 2025
  • Eos Energy (EOSE) sees Q1 revs below coonsensus; highlights record output and capacity expansion; sees Q1 revs below consensus
  • Equinox Gold (EQX) reports Q1 production
  • First Majestic Silver (AG) reports Q1 production results, including 3.5 mln ounces of silver produced
  • Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) reports Q1 production
  • Infleqtion (INFQ) guides to FY26 revenue of $40 mln
  • Neogen (NEOG) beats by $0.03, beats on revs; raises FY26 revs guidance above consensus
  • Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) reports highest ever first quarter retail sales of 13,126 in q1 2026
  • PriceSmart (PSMT) beats by $0.05, beats on revs
  • RCI Hospitality (RICK) reports 2Q26 sales
  • Simply Good Foods (SMPL) beats by $0.05, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • STAAR Surgical (STAA) guides Q1 revenue well above consensus
  • Stellantis (STLA) closed the first quarter of 2026 with a 5% increase in sales across the EU30 vehicle market
  • Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) sees Q1 revs above expectations; remains on track for FY guidance
  • Valmont (VMI) promotes John Schwietz to CFO; reaffirms FY26 EPS and revenue guidance
  • Voya Financial (VOYA) discloses in filing that Q1 combined alternative investment income is approximately $35-$45 mln pre-tax; Also entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement to acquire $150 mln of common stock during 2Q26

2026 APR 10

Pre-Market: None

After-Hours: None

THE WEEK AHEAD

WEEK 15: MONDAY TO FRIDAY, APRIL 06 to APRIL 10

According to the PTSD*, Week 15 has FIVE trading days and is the SECOND trading week in April 2026. The next Market Holiday is on MONDAY MAY25. Seasonally, Week 15 has a Bullish outlook, leading to an even greener week 16 and 17. April is the last of the “6 months of bullishness” on the SPX.

We also need to keep in mind that with the current POTUS, seasonals can easily go out of whack.

*PTSD – Penguin Trader Seasonal Data.

BENCHMARK INDICES (21-YEAR AVERAGE)

The Stock Trader’s Almanac’s stats for the Benchmark Indices for 2026 APRIL XX of Week 15 over a 21-year average are:

  • Dow Jones (DJIA): 47.6%
  • S&P 500 (SPX): 52.4%
  • NASDAQ (COMP): 47.6%
  • *Russells 2000 (RUT): 35.3%

*The RUT is not listed in the STA; several penguins with a slide ruler calculated the 21-year average.

BENCHMARK INDEX ETFs

The Penguin Trader Seasonal Data (PTSD) stats for the Benchmark Index ETFs  for 2026 APRIL XX of Week 15 over a 15-year average are:

  • DIA – (15yr Avg):  41.7%
  • SPY – (15yr Avg): 33.3%
  • QQQ – (15yr Avg): 25.0%
  • RUT – (15yr Avg): 41.7%

ECONOMIC DAY AHEAD

For USA’s upcoming economic calendar features:

  • 8:30 ET: March CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%; prior 0.3%) and Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%)
  • 10:00 ET: February Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior 0.1%) and preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 52.0; prior 53.3)
  • 14:00 ET: March Treasury Budget (Briefing.com consensus -$160.0 bln; prior -$307.5 bln)

ANALYSIS

A penguin will be volunteered for this post soon, or if incentivised with enough cheese.

COMMENTARY

The spread between Brent and WTI has inverted and remained inverted since APR06. Most Penguins can see the tracking on the Alumni Page. The Samurai warns of major bad poopoo incoming if this stays inverted; April does not rally, and we are to watch the yield curves for a quick inversion. As of today, USA has revised down it’s GDP again. The ceasefire in the Middle East seems to only be in the Western Media, with Israel not participating in the ceasefire of the Firing. The straits are still blocked, and the dip buyers came back in drips and drabs last night. Volumes were not impressive.
Institutional Traders will be looking into profit-taking if they have not cashed out midweek.

On the home front, my IC is in the red, but that is expected given the sudden jump in the SPX. I have room to move, and also time. I expect this bullishness to fade to black soon; all it takes is one tiny poke, and the markets will realise that the war is still going on, and the straits are still “closed”.
Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends, stay very hedged.

Stay Hedged – My Penguin Friends

(Excerpts from briefing.com, tradingeconomics.com, financialscents.com, factset.com, finviz.com, marketwatch.com, etrade.com, yahoo.com, tigerbrokers.com, tradingview.com, tradingcentral.com, theedgemalaysia.com, sectorspdrs.com, Investopedia.com, and CNBC.com)